I don't think you really understand the scope of the reality that UA is in right now. Based on UA's current cash position and it's operating cost in relation to it's revenue stream, the company will most likely be forced into bankruptcy in the next 6-9 months. If you look at CAL by contrast, they are not bleeding at the same rate as UA, and the operating costs are much lower. Hence, "the wait for the chips to fall", and acquire United under much more attractive terms. If this is the case, then I can almost assure you that this will turn out like the America West/USair fiasco in terms of seniority integration.

One can only hope that both sides have learned the lessons from USair, and that the employees at the company being acquired are always at a disadvantage based on career expectations.

Best of luck to both.

 

No kidding! I guess all I was thinking about were those nice 737-800's & 737-900's you guys have. The -300/500's are aging.

I wouldn't mind a 727. Heck, I'd be happy to have RNAV. I think NY TRACON would like it too.

 

Thanks for clearing it up for me.

 

I dont work for CAL, and frankly dont care what happens one way or the other....just an outsiders opinion.

 

This is stated in a factual matter. Now can you break out the numbers from the financial releases to prove your assertion of the fate of UAL? You are talking about a 6-9 month timeline in an airline life cycle where nothing changes. Perhaps in your vacuum world nothing changes. However, things are changing on a daily basis and the airlines are making adjustments all time.

Take for instance the stance that UAL is a doomed player in the market. Yet look at this link. 9 Stocks Shaking the Market

I can not predict whether or not UAL will survive. I do hope that they will and if I was stuck in an ERJ I would certainly be hoping for the growth and survival of any mainline carrier. The one thing we know for sure is that the wages on your end are not raising them on our end.

Also, what proof do you have that the UA/CAL integration will be in any manner like the US/HP merger? At UA and CAL we both fly similar gauge equipment and have somewhat similar seniority percentages in the fleets. In the case of HP and US you had one group with widebody intl and one with narrowbody domestic. You also had one extremely senior group with the average Captain at one group not being able to hold that same seat with the same seniority in the other. That is not the case with UA and CAL. Not saying the merger would be unicorns and lollipops but your argument is pretty baseless when actually looking at the facts.

I often see the statement "buy them after they go bust" or "pick up the pieces". If it were only that simple.

Finally, we as line pilots have very little control over what takes place. If their is an integration I look forward to meeting new friends from CAL.

L

 

The reason for "buy at the fire sale prices" and "pick up the pieces" is quite simple. If you were to partner in a business with someone, would you pick a partner that has even more debt than you, poor moral, and other business considerations that seem to be worse than your current condition?
Not if you don't have to and right now, CAL doesn't have to. Kellner knew this and wanted to stay away from the debt. He told me this to my face. Ch 11 allows this debt to disappear and bargains to be had and gains to be greater from this kind or "aquire" mindset that could lead to profitability.

West Coast and International routes are what CAL wants, nothing else.

Mind you, I don't want United to fall at all and I feel for my friends at UAL that have had to endure Tilton's madness and follies. I couldn't imagine watching this idiot burn the place down. Hopefully, he will be stopped before the worst happens. If not, I wouldb't mind a merger with UAL if I could be sure that my job is protected. Being in the bottom 1/3, I am not sure that this would be the case. Being what self preservation is, I want to avoid a merger for personal reasons.

If we could pull a play nice merger like DAL and NWA without furloughs, then game on.

 

Grow up....you boldly laid it down, I didn't.

With the earlier comment, just pointing out your 'flare for the obvious'.

Regardless of the company, we are all are experiencing this S#!$-Sandwich together.

 

Clearly most of the airline industry is a dynamic environment, even a student pilot knows this. However, you're not addressing my post. There are many if's, but clearly the board of directors at UA believes in the direction that Tilton is taking the company, so again I'll make the statement: Based on UA's current cash position and it's operating cost in relation to it's revenue stream, the company will most likely be forced into bankruptcy in the next 6-9 months.

2009 projected operating revenue: $15.6 billion
2009 projected operating cost: $16.4 billion
Projected operating profit: -$800 million

United Airlines Shows How Not To Run Your Business - Forbes.com

I'm not sure I understand what the correlation is between my company's wages and your company's financial condition. Actually, we start getting our concessions back this October as part of the kickback negotiated, but again, short of taking a jab at me and everyone in the industry for your inability to retain scope (as a segment of the industry), your comment has nothing to do with the discussion. Career progression for most of us is not contingent on whether or not UA will make it. If (and I hope you all do) UA survives then great, if not sadly enough someone else will fill the voids and there will be jobs available.

Clearly you're unfamiliar with ALPA's merger policy, which is fundamentally built on career expectations based on ratios and company viability in relation to projected expansion. Translation: CAL has projected growth, UA is shrinking and comes to the table with a higher margin of debt to asset ratio. Clearly your statement illustrates that you believe that you're coming to the table as an equal, but your company's status at the time of the merger makes that determination, not your personal desires, hopes, or what you think you deserve; hence, the ALPA merger policy.


So we're clear, I don't think anyone here is planning nor wishing for UA's demise. Your anger and frustration is misplaced, you should be looking at your management and your MEC. Most of us are looking at this whole scenario from a business perspective, and believe me, even from a personal perspective, I am hoping things work out for you guys.

When folks talk about bankruptcy, most of us are talking about chapter 11 - reorganization, not liquidation. At this point in the game, it almost seems like UA's only option, short of securing financing elsewhere, which is unlikely at this point.

Once again, best of luck to you.

 

Those numbers again exist in a vacuum. Maybe it is youth that is making this difficult for you understand. 6-9months in airline lifespan is fairly long. Again, I don't know if UAL will be in BK or not but I think there is some things taking place to stem the possibility. Of course you would know better from reading forbes. You neglected to post this:Response from United Airlines to My Forbes Commentary on - Shaun Rein -- Seeking Alpha


What I find ironic is that in spite of the Guitar Man and the opinion of the forbes guy, is that our LF is running higher than planned, thus attributing to some of the stock price run up. Also, don't forget that the guitar damage was caused when riding on an RJ. When you hire carriers for express operations that have nothing at stake, indifferent crews and poor infrastructure your own product suffers. This is one of the many problems RJ's have contributed to the industry.

No sir, I suspect you wouldn't understand. It is more endemic of the problems that exist in the industry. See the above paragraph.

. You seem a bit sensitive to your place in the industry. Maybe you should stop predicting the demise of the other carriers and start figuring out where the payoff is for your future in the industry. I was for retaining scope. However, our senior pilots at the time. The same ones that are going to have the throttles pulled from their tired, dead hands at 65 sold us a bill of goods. The argument from our union was that we as a corporation could either buy widebody aircraft or RJ's. We all know how that turned out.

And clearly you know nothing of the fleet makeup and career expectations of the two carriers as it currently stands. If you take the airlines as they currently exist. Furloughing and removing airframes. I will not argue the merits of either carrier over the other as a going entity because I believe that only creates jabs on this board. I would hope my carrier and my future holds a job. If it doesn't then I will adapt. However, UAL does bring a significant number of widebody jobs to the mix. Both carriers have complementing route structures. CAL brings a group that has seen challenges and have overcome them. So your position is that the UAL pilots should be stapled at CAL? Maybe you should read the ALPA merger policy regarding windfalls!

One of the greatest things about your thoughts on this matter is that they will have nothing to do with the outcome IF merger were to take place. It would most like be decided by the pilot groups and if it is correct that you are a ERJ pilot then you WON'T have a seat at the table for those discussions.



L

 

If you try to wait to buy an airline in bankruptcy, you better be sure you are the winning bidder. No one thought Republic could beat Southwest, but it happened.

UA and CAL are essentially equal airlines. Pilots always try to pick obscure facts about who is failing or who is the better airline, but in the end there is little difference there. UA and CAL are primed for a status/category integration if it occurs. If by some weird chance UA is broken up, they have a great franchise, poorly run, and I predict that the vast majority would be picked up somewhere. Let's just hope the rest of the industry doesn't adopt the SWAPA model of "you get a staple job and thank us for it." The DAL/Pan Am model is a much better template. (don't work for UA or CAL, so don't bother)

I think LCC is the candidate for a chop job, they don't really have much to offer besides DCA. (well and LGA for now)