B1900YX

Interesting article about scope and RJ's and the roots of the cancer.

Swelblog / Swelbar on Airlines - Articles - Mainline Pilot Scope: Will Regional Carriers Be Permitted to Fly 90+ SeatAircraft?

Does Scope Produce the Intended Outcome?

In the most simplistic terms, scope is the definition of work for the class and craft of employees governed by the provisions of a collective bargaining agreement. Its purpose is to provide job security for those employees. But it is safe to say that most scope clauses produced unintended consequences. Between 2000 – 2008, legacy carriers reduced the number of narrowbody aircraft they fly by 800, and more than 14,000 pilot jobs have disappeared.
So, one could argue that scope is just another example of protectionism that failed. As economist Henry George, a sharp critic of protectionist policies, once said: “Protectionism teaches us is to do to ourselves in times of peace what enemies seek to do to us in times of war.”
Scope negotiations have been divisive not only between labor and managements but just as much between the unions representing mainline pilots and those representing regional pilots. Ultimately airlines must determine whether the 90-125 seat flying of tomorrow should go to the mainline or be flown by their regional partners. To arrive at the right economic solution, it is time for organized pilot labor and management to stop putting a Band-aid on problems.
The Boyd Group International recently released an interesting fleet forecast that looks in part at new aircraft orders. So far, the only area of real growth is in the 75-125 seat category. Orders in other seat ranges are forecast simply as replacements from now until 2015.
Ironically, 2015 is when many regional contracts expire, primarily those for 50-seat flying. These expirations could eliminate nearly 500 existing airplanes currently under contract between now and 2016; with the lion’s share coming off contract in 2015. This is a conundrum for the regional industry for sure. There will be a thirst for new flying.

Where Do I Come Out?

I recently saw a piece by Lori Ranson on the Airline Business blog titled: “A New Line In the Sand” that cites comments by long-time Raymond James analyst Jim Parker on the future of scope: “As employee groups seek to regain some concessions made early last decade as a host of carriers spent time in Chapter 11, there could be some leeway in the size of jets flown by mainline regional partners,” according to the analysis. James sees the potential to renegotiate current scope clauses, moving the dial from 70-seats to 90-seats.
I am not one to be on the other side of Parker often, but on this one I am. I do not believe that the mainline pilot unions can afford to make another mistake. Their arrogance toward regional jet flying led to their current predicament. The economics of US domestic flying is simply much more difficult now for the legacy carriers. If labor can’t let go of their memories of what the industry was 20 years ago to focus instead on where it’s going over the next 20 years, then they will have no one to blame but themselves if they fail to help position airlines – and the pilots they represent – for success. John Kennedy once said: “Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
It won’t be easy for pilot union leaders to find a solution for a problem that they helped to create. Just as the US Airways East scope clause defines small, medium and large regional aircraft, it is time to define small, medium and large narrowbody equipment necessary to profitably serve the domestic market.
Once again, a call for pilot union leadership. My view is that management is indifferent as to which pilot group does the flying. I am thinking we are at that critical juncture in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible development – mainline legacy carrier pilots performing narrowbody flying in the US domestic market 20 years from now – or NOT.

hockeypilot44

Yes, it will be relaxed again.

MAXforwardspeed

Yes Kris. As long as our friends at the Majors keep giving it up. I guess it has always been true mainline pilots eat their young. It's so sad to watch them destroy this industry. I guess we will have to rebuild it when the regional have taken it all back. Only then we can give it a shot.

lolwut

If scope is relaxed again to a higher seat class, it will be catastrophic to our careers. The majority of domestic flying is currently the 120-160 seat class of airplanes (737, A320, MD-80).

Relaxation up to what it currently is (76-86 seats) allowed big enough airplanes that majors could fly more regional jets and replace all of the old 90-120 seat jets. DC-9-30s, 737-200/500, F-100, etc. They're all gone and haven't been replaced at mainline, because RJs are "big enough" to cover that flying, with additional frequencies.

The same thing will happen with the next step, you'll see mainline trying to not fly anything smaller than a 757. Almost all domestic / north america capacity will be RJs. It'll be the end of our careers.

If scope gets changed again, it needs to be in the other direction. It should be the #1 item on every MEC and negotiating committee's to-do list.

gloopy

Yep. I will look at Section One first. Read the entire thing. And only then, if it is sufficient, will I flip to that otherwise meaningless Section Three pay grid. Without the jobs the pay grid doesn't matter.

rickair7777

I believe it will be relaxed again, but it might not be anytime soon.

The scope relaxation process functions with a "ratchet" effect. That is it basically only goes one way...the wrong way.

It's possible for mainline to hold the line at certain times (like possibly right now, since they are PO'ed and feeling the full effects of their past actions). Unfortunately I feel it is extremely unlikely that there will be any significant "roll back" of scope because everything in contract negotiations has a cost and I think the cost of more scope (less RJ's) for most mainline groups would be prohibitive.

Never say never, but the mainline groups would have to be prepared to give up significant compensation to get much scope back. The senior guys will not do that, period. They are old and any scope-related career ramifications will probably never catch up with them. This means that the middle and junior folks will have to bear a disproportionate share of the cost of a scope rollback...I'm not sure that they will give up a lot of money now to fend off future uncertainty.

I assume they will hold the line on scope for now...but that's only good until the next industry catastrophe creates an opportunity for management to make another trip through the BK drive-through...

lolwut

One thing we hopefully have going for us in the future is that mainline pilot groups will be more and more comprised of former RJ pilots... who understand the whole problem better and, having been on both sides of it, will stand their ground.

captfurlough

It's all about money....and will be all about money.

First, let's put history into perspective. The commuter industry started out with Twin Otters and Beech 99s....19 seat unpressurized aircraft. As the business model took hold, operators looked for additional opportunities, and manufacturer's developed larger airplanes, and logically some were adapted for commuter use from corporate aircraft. Mainline carriers were happy to look to commuters for system feed. This resulted in unprecedented growth for the commuter industry...now termed regional industry...which created a new paradygm for those begining their careers. Demand for 50 seat pilots created an "entry level" opportunity that didn't exist before. There were many pilots who benefited from this situation, and who came to the industry with a fresh commercial, instrument, multi engine ticket and 500 or so hours and won a right seat in a CRJ. For those pilots coming from the civilian ranks, as long as the economy was moving and the mainlines growing, this new path to the majors was a win win. The primary vulnerability was the major's ability to reselect partners at the lowest bid every few years, creating a level of instability within the regional industry.

In recent years the regional business model has been favorably impacted by the economic recession, which thined out traffic on mainline routes and made them unprofitable with narrowbody aircraft. Naturally the legacy carriers looked to "right size" the aircraft and turned to their regional partners, now operating aircraft with 70 or more seats. The end result as we all know, is that regionals now account for about 50% of all domestic US flying. Again, this represented unprecedented opportunity for large numbers of new pilots, while mainline or legacy carriers have furloughed thousands of their pilots. Career movement from the regionals to the legacy carriers, and within the legacy carriers, was virtually stoped.

Fuel costs have escalated to the point where 50 seat aircraft have became much less profitable on a seat mile basis, and now regional carriers are looking to "retire" large portions of those fleets.
If anything, the lesson here is that the relentless drive for the lowest seat mile cost IS the new paradygm...and if you use that model to forecast the future of our industry, you're crystal ball will be as clear as anyones.
Mainline or legacy carriers will seek to lower unit costs and maintain flexability by outsourcing flying in larger regional jets...say 90 to 120 seats. Some regional carriers are already preparing themselves for this...RAH for example. Others are will follow as they rid themselves of most of their 50 seat fleet, and seek to consolidate to achieve economies of scale.

Mainline pilots are only now begining to realize the significance of these changes, and with decades of time and effort invested in thier careers, can be expected to fight back and insist that this flying is done in house.
They'll only be sucessful if they agree to wages (or more accurately labor costs) competitive to what the regional industry can provide in these smaller aircraft. But they'll be fighting an uphill battle with management who might still prefer the flexability and advantages of contracted lift capability.

acl65pilot

Depends. There are probably 25% of the pilots in any group that will sell anything to better themselves. The rest seem to get that even at a million bucks an hr it means nothing without scope.

Many Major Captains are finally getting it as they seat their WB seats divided up amongst joint venture carriers.

I know I will vote no, no matter what the rest of the PWA says.

Pineapple Guy

Me too. I was leaning to last time, when we moved the line from 70 to 76, but the bankruptcy environment is too one sided, and I didn't think we'd prevail. Next time, absent BK, I'm a no vote if they try to move the line.