Airline Pilot Central Forums - Combined 2011 Hiring Info

The above numbers are encouraging; however there are many factors to consider when making a broad judgment on the future of hiring.

What you have to keep in mind first is that you will have to analyze the "recall" situation at AMR and UAL prior to their weight be thrown behind those retirement numbers. That sounds confusing but look at it like this:

AMR guys can "punch out" of their retirement with notice to the company and as it has been explained me by several AA mates, this gets more tempting either as the company grumbles bankruptcy (becoming more unlikely in the consolidation era) or the markets buoy the value of the investments in their plan.

On the UAL side (and industry as a whole for that matter), there are whole bunch of "seasoned" aviators (the kind who refuse a roller bag and whose hats look like they came off a B-17 pilot) who are downright tired of the hassle flying has become. Think about it, would you really want to be commuting (not that many of these guys do) or dealing with the present state of the industry at age 60+! It's hard enough as a wet behind the ears 20 or 30 something, or how about a twice furloughed 40 something with a ****ed of spouse? Face it, this is an emotionally draining profession!

My point is that if (big IF) UAL produces a decent equity or cash payout then quite a few of these 60+ folks I think will bail early and who the hell can blame them?

So the recall thing has to be solved before major "hiring" begins and that’s a lot of guys at AMR and UAL. Delta and US Air will undoubtedly hire earlier, so if that’s your thing then bang on that door, but it will be stiff competition and likely they have quasi pools already with guys bringing flowers and chocolates into the HR department for their mates waiting in the wings.

Another factor to consider is that budget cuts are coming to the US and we are trying to draw down two wars that have taken many of our military pilots back into service on furlough (or even before furlough on LOA). Many of these folks will be looking to come back, so the recall picture has to be solved before the hiring picture opens up widely.

FedEx and UPS will hire eventually but their hiring is even more tied to the global economic cycle than the passenger carriers, so besides minor trickles here and there you won’t see huge hiring there until the world economy really heats up again.

Sadly however, we must also consider the heinous efforts of terrorists to target airliners. These SOB's are hell bent on taking down aircraft, so that’s a major implication yet to be realized.

What really drives hiring at most air carriers is the hours they fly and the aircraft they take delivery of (if they don’t retire acft on the back side). I can GUARANTEE you the industry as a whole is just loving the cash flow improvements they are seeing through consolidation and will only add minimal hours/aircraft in order to hold together the "cartel" effect consolidation is loosely creating. Eventually someone will break, but for now "capacity discipline" is hammered on the wall of most CEO's offices. This has never been good for hiring, but expansion will come with more economic certainty, probably in 2013 onwards.

The retirements are coming and the hiring is beginning slowly, but it will be initially in fits and starts rather than a sudden smooth and predictable exodus of older pilots. It's going to be frustrating for the next few years and if I was single or had a family who was game, I would head overseas and make some money if you can. Waiting around the US is going to be maddening for awhile, so don't beat your head against the wall here if you have the opportunity to do flying elsewhere or improve your future through learning other talents.