Yep, You're correct.

800 guys to go until hiring. So with an acceptance rate of 20% that is 160 guys. That doesn't count guys coming off deferments or the second August class. If they go to 65 a month then AA would have to hire in October for November class dates. These dates could slide depending on retirements. If the stock market stay down for the rest of the month then all bets are off since there could anywhere from 100-500 retirements.

Ace - math appears to be ignoring the 150 (?) AE guys that will come over after the last TWA furloughee gets offered recall(estimated to be in Nov?) followed by the AA guys on the list behind the former TWA guys.

So it's ex TWA, bottom AA guys, 150 (?)AE flowthroughs, then off the street.

That's how folks are estimating off the street hiring in the spring. May is the month mentioned(obviously just an estimate).

No word on any increase to the current recall rate(35 ish).

oops, forgot about those guys. Don't know how many of the 150 will come over though. Technically there are some FT's that are senior to the bottom guys and even senior to some TWA guys so they will come over when AA recalls at their seniority. I betting that AA will have a massive retirement binge from the falling stock market and with that they will be hiring sometime in the next 90 days.

AA jumpseater yesterday said he heard 80ish just put in notice... I forgot for which month ... not sure how that works.. maybe someone that's in the know can chime in.
Disclaimer... he didn't sound to confident in that number.

Quagmire - union rep put out a msg that 500+ guys are over 60 and 100 guys under 60 have 'locked-in'. A 'locked-in' guy doesn't have to retire. If they choose they can relock every month. Forget to relock and they're retired at the end of the month. No mulligans... guys have tried. Adios.

Prior to retirement there are three statuses -

1. They're here (retire any day with the end of month value). Under age 50 is quit, after 50 is retired.

2. Locked in(retire any day and get the end of month value from 3 months prior). You can lock in, and relock, your entire career. Most guys do it for the last year or so prior to retirement.

3. Over 60 and automatically get the end of month minus 90 days prior value(that's what makes the company sweat with 500+ guys, mostly senior, and w/b, CA's in that bracket)

There is no 'notice'. Guys get the 'locked-in' status mixed up. You can lock in for years.

With the 60+ guys, and under 60 guys that are locked in, both having access to the market value 90 day look back feature there's significant attention being paid to the decision to retire NLT than Oct 31(get July 31 unit value) or earlier.

We'll have to wait and see how many additional guys leave EOF Aug/Sep/Oct due to the current market conditions. We're averaging 20-25(?) right now. Guys are guessing normal (60-75?) or up to 200, but it's just guessing. Financial advisor stated there's lots of attention, he thinks the number will be 'significant', but no one knows what the number will be.

Clear as mud?

Recall update
 

As of the Aug. 10 class, there are currently 807 pilots on furlough who've not been offered recall. There are 823 pilots remaining on deferred status.

There are 249 AE flow-throughs eligible to flow up to AA. 149 of these will be offered employment after the most junior furloughed pilot is offered recall. The remaining 100 AE pilots have seniority numbers junior to the junior red (TWA) pilot and will be intermixed with the remaining blue (native AA) pilots.

The Aug. 24 class (13 pilots) and Sept. 7 class (18 pilots) have been filled. They are calling for the Sept. 21 & Oct. 5 classes. An Oct. 19 class is planned.

Reports on Aug. 18 & 19 seem to conflict on the acceptance rate for the October 5 class. One caller saying it is higher (35%) and another lower than expected. I guess it depends more on what the company expects than on what the model projects. With the pilots being called for October 5, the model is still working.

Latest projection is the junior furloughed red pilot will be offered recall in the November 9 class, beginning the recall of the remaining AA pilots and opportunity for the next group of AE pilots.

The Be Prepared model says the last furloughed pilot may be offered recall in March 2012. Then, the next group of AE pilots. The model is now using a 75% acceptance rate for the junior 149 AE pilots and projects they will be offered classes in July 2012.

Some previous deferred pilots are accepting recall. A few are returning to immediate military leave. Some (may have) previously deferred in order to give proper notice, return from overseas flying, complete military service or to be more 'senior' in their recall class. Others are lurking to see what happens regarding a new contract and hoping for LOS credit.


You can see much of this HERE.

The 65/month is not happening soon. The preliminary count for Sept. 21 is a total of 16, with 8 of those being previous deferrals. The current rate is less than half of that etherial 65 number.

It sounds like they have added at least one reinforcement to the calling process, but if all this retirement conjecture materializes, that could put a huge short term load on the training resources and could, virtually stop recalls in the short term.

One 777/767 captain retires. That generates at least 5 training events? It ripples all the way back to the -80/737. All the crystal ball number of dozens or scores of retirements would exceed the training capacity.

With the section 6 discussions mired in wet concrete, there is conjecture about parking wide body jets due to lack of captains who choose to retire soon.

If they do end up parking jets due to manning problems, I sure hope APA can capitalize on AMR's pain in their negotiations.

Unless AA is just plotting a path to BK.