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Old 01-17-2012, 11:10 AM
  #271  
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Best:* Another baffling Southernism that is usually couched in the negative. "You best not speak to Bob about his car. He just had to spend $300 on it."

Chunk:* To throw. "Chunk it there, Leroy. Ole Leroy sure can chunk 'at ball, can't he? Best pitcher we ever had."

Gummut:* A large institution operating out of Washington that consumes taxes at a fearful rate. "Bill's got it made. He's got a gummut job."

Hush yo' mouth:* An expression of pleased embarrassment, as when a Southern female is paid an extravagant compliment. "Honey, you're 'bout the sweetest, best-lookin' woman in Tennessee. Now hush yo' mouth, Jim Bob."

Kin:* Related to. An Elizabethan expression, one of many which survived in the South. "Are you kin to him?" "Yeah, He's my brother."

Mind to:* To have the intention of doing something. "Ah got a mind to quit my job and just loaf for a while."

Nawth:* Any part of the country outside the South _Midwest, California or whatever.If it's not South, it's Nawth. "People from up Nawth sure do talk funny."

Retard:* No longer employed. "He's retard now."
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Old 01-17-2012, 11:58 AM
  #272  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Good question. If that tack is against AMR management's interests and possibly AA's labor, exactly what are creditors getting in the long run. Aren't Boeing and Airbus creditor's with HUGE investment and a stake in AA's future (whatever it may be) ?
Yes. Sort of.

Boeing and Airbus are going to deliver the same number of planes for US flying regardless of the fate of AA or any/all other airlines. The demand in this country is going to be what its going to be. If AA goes away entirely (I agree with you that is most likely not going to happen) the surviving carriers and future start ups will take over the delivery slots and then some.

Since AA split their order between the two giants, neither one has that much of an advantage to overpay the system to secure their positions as whatever happened in the end would mirror what they already have.

And I'd worry far less about DL/US/UA picking up the pieces and far more about SW/JB/NK/VX/SkyBus II and all the others going ballistic with hypersonic growth with most of the "new" positions going for deep discounts to current post 9-11 bankruptcy emergency pilot costs.

If DL got AA entirely, the forced divesture would be far more catestrophic than the market based divesture AA will entertain to pay off creditors. 100% of that will go to LCC's and most to the "ULCC's" that will not only be cheaper than post-BK AA but they will grow like crazy at zero longevity while most AA employees are top scale.

I agree that AA will probably survive this although I think 1 or 2 mergers are in their near future. The surviving name will probably be AA. The end result will probably be a lean mean mega giant like DL and UA, although they will have to sell off a little bit to grease the regulatory skids as well as raise some cash. DL and UA will probably both overpay for a few small pieces (SA route here and there, NYC slots here and there, etc) but over all lay the AA, US and B6 route maps on top of eachother and that's what the "new" AA will likely look like.
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Old 01-17-2012, 12:20 PM
  #273  
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Hush yo' mouth:* An expression of pleased embarrassment, as when a Southern female is paid an extravagant compliment. "Honey, you're 'bout the sweetest, best-lookin' woman in Tennessee. Now hush yo' mouth, Jim Bob."

Kin:* Related to. An Elizabethan expression, one of many which survived in the South. "Are you kin to him?" "Yeah, He's my brother."

There.......fixed it for y'all. Ensteed of oooone pair graph, made inta two sentunses as in kin having a conversashun.
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Old 01-17-2012, 01:06 PM
  #274  
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Originally Posted by gloopy
Yes. Sort of.

Boeing and Airbus are going to deliver the same number of planes for US flying regardless of the fate of AA or any/all other airlines. The demand in this country is going to be what its going to be. If AA goes away entirely (I agree with you that is most likely not going to happen) the surviving carriers and future start ups will take over the delivery slots and then some.

Since AA split their order between the two giants, neither one has that much of an advantage to overpay the system to secure their positions as whatever happened in the end would mirror what they already have.

And I'd worry far less about DL/US/UA picking up the pieces and far more about SW/JB/NK/VX/SkyBus II and all the others going ballistic with hypersonic growth with most of the "new" positions going for deep discounts to current post 9-11 bankruptcy emergency pilot costs.

If DL got AA entirely, the forced divesture would be far more catestrophic than the market based divesture AA will entertain to pay off creditors. 100% of that will go to LCC's and most to the "ULCC's" that will not only be cheaper than post-BK AA but they will grow like crazy at zero longevity while most AA employees are top scale.

I agree that AA will probably survive this although I think 1 or 2 mergers are in their near future. The surviving name will probably be AA. The end result will probably be a lean mean mega giant like DL and UA, although they will have to sell off a little bit to grease the regulatory skids as well as raise some cash. DL and UA will probably both overpay for a few small pieces (SA route here and there, NYC slots here and there, etc) but over all lay the AA, US and B6 route maps on top of eachother and that's what the "new" AA will likely look like.
Actually my little droog, I'm not worried about any of the above scenarios. What happens will happen. Personally, I'm of the opinion AA will stay essentially intact through Chapter 11. I'm also of the opinion a post emergence merger will result in the AA brand being the surviving brand. IF (and that's a big if) it involves JB there will be virtually no overlap and thus no sacrificial routes, which may be the very reason AA is so willingly stepping aside for JB right now. As for DL, looking at JB's and U's routes, I see virtually nothing that would require giving anything they or AA have to DL to appease regulators in that scenario. VERY little if anything. What were DL/NW or UAL/CAL required to give AA during their mergers ?

What ALL major airline pilots should concern themselves with, is just how they will defend their own compensation levels in perpituity if AA gets a compensation package for 500 or more A319/320/Neo's that's 65% of the next most expensive competitor and half that of SWA's for the same sized aircraft.

If 2/3 of AA becomes basically a regional carrier (in labor costs) flying 125-150 seat airbus aircraft (which would include the majority of both JB and U's fleets in a merger), they'll be able to underprice everyone else in direct competition and still make a profit, forcing most or all to take a loss, just as SWA used to do, but can no longer and not just because of their former fuel hedges, but because of a significant labor cost advantage. They will soon be......heck already are the most expensive narrowbody pilots and AA Soon will be the cheapest, but cheapest ACROSS THE BOARD in every employee position, ground and flight.

THAT is what as pilots we should be concerned about.
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:10 PM
  #275  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Actually my little droog, I'm not worried about any of the above scenarios. What happens will happen. Personally, I'm of the opinion AA will stay essentially intact through Chapter 11. I'm also of the opinion a post emergence merger will result in the AA brand being the surviving brand. IF (and that's a big if) it involves JB there will be virtually no overlap and thus no sacrificial routes, which may be the very reason AA is so willingly stepping aside for JB right now. As for DL, looking at JB's and U's routes, I see virtually nothing that would require giving anything they or AA have to DL to appease regulators in that scenario. VERY little if anything. What were DL/NW or UAL/CAL required to give AA during their mergers ?

What ALL major airline pilots should concern themselves with, is just how they will defend their own compensation levels in perpituity if AA gets a compensation package for 500 or more A319/320/Neo's that's 65% of the next most expensive competitor and half that of SWA's for the same sized aircraft.

If 2/3 of AA becomes basically a regional carrier (in labor costs) flying 125-150 seat airbus aircraft (which would include the majority of both JB and U's fleets in a merger), they'll be able to underprice everyone else in direct competition and still make a profit, forcing most or all to take a loss, just as SWA used to do, but can no longer and not just because of their former fuel hedges, but because of a significant labor cost advantage. They will soon be......heck already are the most expensive narrowbody pilots and AA Soon will be the cheapest, but cheapest ACROSS THE BOARD in every employee position, ground and flight.

THAT is what as pilots we should be concerned about.
Droogers gonna droog. You are right in saying that "if" AA guts pilot pay and benefits for their entire narrowbody fleet that it will have a significant adverse effect on everyone else. If AA engages in pradatory bargaining far beyond what's necessary to "save the company" then, by your own implication, the entire industry would be far better off if AA just got parted out.

AA has shown zero sympathy in any other M&A opportunity for any other pilot group, and yet you are chomping at the bit for them to underbid the entire industry by earthshattering proportions to avoid the "evils" of a fragmentation/liquidation while at the same time trying to be righteously indignant in your search for seniority yielding solidarity in case it doesn't work out. Good luck with that.

If what you predict comes to fruition, after the first year or two of AA dominance, which will occur during a period of zero growth and fleet renewal, the other airlines and new start ups will simply undercut you and take your globe dominating growth from you. Liquidation is far superior than what you predict will happen.
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:47 PM
  #276  
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Originally Posted by gloopy
Droogers gonna droog. You are right in saying that "if" AA guts pilot pay and benefits for their entire narrowbody fleet that it will have a significant adverse effect on everyone else. If AA engages in pradatory bargaining far beyond what's necessary to "save the company" then, by your own implication, the entire industry would be far better off if AA just got parted out.
If only we as pilots had much control over the "industry". If we did, well.......the RJ conundrum wouldn't be one, eh ?

Originally Posted by gloopy
AA has shown zero sympathy in any other M&A opportunity for any other pilot group, and yet you are chomping at the bit for them to underbid the entire industry by earthshattering proportions to avoid the "evils" of a fragmentation/liquidation while at the same time trying to be righteously indignant in your search for seniority yielding solidarity in case it doesn't work out. Good luck with that.
I'm hardly "chomping [champing] at the bit" for AA to do any such thing. I stated it's something we should ALL be concerned about. As far as MY search for senioirty ?

I'm the one critical of OTHERS for eagerly heading out on wild goose chases regarding mergers and the endless possibly seniority implications. You need to stow the emotion and review the facts, my friend.

Originally Posted by gloopy
If what you predict comes to fruition, after the first year or two of AA dominance, which will occur during a period of zero growth and fleet renewal, the other airlines and new start ups will simply undercut you and take your globe dominating growth from you. Liquidation is far superior than what you predict will happen.
I've predicted no such thing. It IS within the realm of possibilities and if I were in management (especially AMR), I'd be looking to do this exact thing. In fact, if you review AMR's "proposal", you'll see this is EXACTLY what they were thinking when they presented it. It seems you've let emotion override logic and facts. I'm presenting realistic scenarios based on facts, but that doesn't mean I subscribe to them. As stated before, if what I say occurs (which is NOT the same as predicting it), then we ALL should be concerned.
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Old 01-17-2012, 04:26 PM
  #277  
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Originally Posted by gloopy
Droogers gonna droog. You are right in saying that "if" AA guts pilot pay and benefits for their entire narrowbody fleet that it will have a significant adverse effect on everyone else.
From a two time visitor to Ch11 court. I wish we had gone with what the judge granted. Not telling anyone what to do.............
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Old 01-17-2012, 04:33 PM
  #278  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Actually my little droog, I'm not worried about any of the above scenarios. What happens will happen. Personally, I'm of the opinion AA will stay essentially intact through Chapter 11. I'm also of the opinion a post emergence merger will result in the AA brand being the surviving brand. IF (and that's a big if) it involves JB there will be virtually no overlap and thus no sacrificial routes, which may be the very reason AA is so willingly stepping aside for JB right now. As for DL, looking at JB's and U's routes, I see virtually nothing that would require giving anything they or AA have to DL to appease regulators in that scenario. VERY little if anything. What were DL/NW or UAL/CAL required to give AA during their mergers ?

What ALL major airline pilots should concern themselves with, is just how they will defend their own compensation levels in perpituity if AA gets a compensation package for 500 or more A319/320/Neo's that's 65% of the next most expensive competitor and half that of SWA's for the same sized aircraft.

If 2/3 of AA becomes basically a regional carrier (in labor costs) flying 125-150 seat airbus aircraft (which would include the majority of both JB and U's fleets in a merger), they'll be able to underprice everyone else in direct competition and still make a profit, forcing most or all to take a loss, just as SWA used to do, but can no longer and not just because of their former fuel hedges, but because of a significant labor cost advantage.
They will soon be......heck already are the most expensive narrowbody pilots and AA Soon will be the cheapest, but cheapest ACROSS THE BOARD in every employee position, ground and flight.

THAT is what as pilots we should be concerned about.
I think you worried about what will happen to you and your company. I was when mine was and I think everyone else on here was, too.

But, with this post, you just lost a lot of the good will people had for you. Forgive me if I'm wrong, and I hope that I am, but you seem to be a little too gun-ho about the prospect of AA pilots working as regional pay.

I hope it doesn't come to that.
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Old 01-17-2012, 04:46 PM
  #279  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
What ALL major airline pilots should concern themselves with, is just how they will defend their own compensation levels in perpituity if AA gets a compensation package for 500 or more A319/320/Neo's that's 65% of the next most expensive competitor and half that of SWA's for the same sized aircraft.

If 2/3 of AA becomes basically a regional carrier (in labor costs) flying 125-150 seat airbus aircraft (which would include the majority of both JB and U's fleets in a merger), they'll be able to underprice everyone else in direct competition and still make a profit, forcing most or all to take a loss, just as SWA used to do, but can no longer and not just because of their former fuel hedges, but because of a significant labor cost advantage. They will soon be......heck already are the most expensive narrowbody pilots and AA Soon will be the cheapest, but cheapest ACROSS THE BOARD in every employee position, ground and flight.

THAT is what as pilots we should be concerned about.
Disclaimer: I usually let the smarter & older forum users like NewK comment about these subjects, but this has just gone too far.

WHAT PILOTS SHOULD REALLY BE CONCERNED ABOUT is this "prognostication" that you're hoping "AA is the more/most buoyant turd in the toilet bowl, swirling in the race to the bottom, and AA is the last one down"?

Nice to hear anyone can hold out for industry standard wages anymore.

GJ
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Old 01-17-2012, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Gearjerk
Disclaimer: I usually let the smarter & older forum users like NewK comment about these subjects, but this has just gone too far.

WHAT PILOTS SHOULD REALLY BE CONCERNED ABOUT is this "prognostication" that you're hoping "AA is the more/most buoyant turd in the toilet bowl, swirling in the race to the bottom, and AA is the last one down"?

Nice to hear anyone can hold out for industry standard wages anymore.

GJ
Again, not hoping for any such thing. If you read what I say, AA is likely to be the FIRST turd in that bowl and BTW, we're in bankruptcy dude. Actually, if you take the time and actually look around, you'll notice you're already in a toilet filled to the brim with foul waste. Let me know where you'd like to start ?

- OVER 50% of the domestic flying done by RJ's that pay food stamps ?
- The pension system virtually annihalated ?
- Pay rates falling at every turn ?
- Scheduling at majors that look like regionals USED to ?
- Airline executives wealthier then ever ?
- Parasitic cannabilism among pilot groups ?

Time to WTFU, dude..........school's out.
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