I am not really even sure about this....Isn't Delta mainline trying to shrink it's current pilot force from 12,000 to 9,000 ish? (serious question) Simultaneously they are trying to shrink their regional pilot force.

I'm not sure that part 121 flying is a growth industry in the next 10 years. One retirement does not equal one new hire. *That's the problem.*

I'll participate in your poll; I will work for greater than $25 per hour. As a matter of fact, go ahead and make it $250 and hour.

I should add that yesterday NPR had a segment on about the pax flying boom in Asia. They discussed the 10 year increase in flights/pax enplanements. The numbers were impressive. I am not sure how many expats they are hiring. I am also not sure how many people are willing to become ex pats and fly there. They did not discuss the Middle East, but I believe Emirates and Qatar Airways (at least those two) are taking *big airplane orders. Food for thought.

And where is ATP Cliff? That guy always has something positive to say! (which I am not bagging on him for)

Although I am not a 121 pilot I do have a couple of observations to point out that are positive.

-Air travel will increase across the world including the US for years to come. There are just a few life changing events that could slow it down. The population is growing every second that goes by.

-I see lots of talk of consolidation. Airlines may try to shrink but others will just grow in their place(reference above). I know this industry has been hard for a lot of people the 15 years but growth will happen and pay increases will happen to if pilots would learn to stick together and not cut each others throat all the time (novel concept, huh??)

Will we see a pilot shortage? No one knows until it happens! I can see plausable facts from both sides but we do not know the future. I feel we will see movement and demand go up quite a bit from what most of us sub 40 guys have seen in past but no one knows how high. The best thing we as pilots can do is to try to make the future of this industry the best we can. Things in every industry suck some no matter how awesome you might think they are.

ok I don't know why I am even attempting to answer this...

How many pilots does an airline need?.... This is always a different answer for every airline. For the most part every airline staffs based on ASM or in more basic terms capacity. In general airlines have staffing model that takes into account the cba of the pilot groups, rest regulations that effect their individual schedules, and training and transitions for pilots moving to different fleet types through the airline.

What happens when a major airlines needs to hire?... They look to the regionals, and the military for the most part. To be hired you generaly need pic turbine and an ATP. Once those they have exausted pic turbine applicants they will the look to turbine pilots of any source... If all of those sources are exausted I don't know what the next step will be.

The more likely scenerio: capacity reductions continue and a regulated supply of pilots will begin to slowly trickle to the majors. Eventually there will be a shortage at the regional level. This will likely come just as massive regional flying reductions begin. You can see Delta has already committed to reducing regional flying. This will continue at all regionals. My guess is if they ever have a situation where demand is more then supply they will simply reduce frequency and increase equipment size.

It is true that there will be a need for pilots, there will be times when pilots are in demand, and there will likely be some contractual gains do to this need. Will they cancel large ammounts of flights becuase of lack of crews? I'm abosulutely sure they wont. There is plenty of pilots in this country, only a few of them choose to work for low paying regionals.

Am I the only one to think that Satpak started a super effective troll thread? Geeze....

and three months later the company announces 700 pilots will be furloughed.

If this is what you think will happen I say good luck buddy!

When Orvil and Wilbur got ready for the first flight of a powered aircraft, they flipped a coin to see who would get to fly it.

Airplanes did not even exist yet and there were already twice as many pilots as were needed.

Nothing has changed, except for folks stopped crashing, smoking and drinking to excess ... so now pilots live waaaay too long. You know, we can miss you if you never leave ... .

Seriously? Why even bother posting moronic **** like that. I don't know why I even bother to formulate well contsructed thoughts. It's just a waste of effort on this site.