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Old 06-20-2012 | 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by DLpilot
Word for word in bold "Bottom line is neutral staffing impact with no fleet growth". I agree is it says that staffing formula will cause a slight increase. However right above that is says alv plus 15 decreases manning.
I don't have the words "with no fleet growth" on mine. I guess that means if the fleet grows we will need more pilot's then we do now.
Old 06-20-2012 | 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by johnso29
I don't have the words "with no fleet growth" on mine. I guess that means if the fleet grows we will need more pilot's then we do now.
Maybe it is a different handout. This is the one on the alpa page. Of course we would need more pilots if we have growth airplanes. The problem is that we would not need as many because they are including early retirements that were going to retire anyway. Should early retirements be included in the offsets or not? I say no. Most would retire anyway within the duration of this TA.
Old 06-20-2012 | 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by DLpilot
Should early retirements be included in the offsets or not? I say no. Most would retire anyway within the duration of this TA.
But then how could it be spun?
Old 06-21-2012 | 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by johnso29
"per people at the airline", particularly SD, the B737-900ERs are cash flow positive from Day 1 which allows the company to use them as growth aircraft. And I have grape on my chin?
Theoretically yes. But that would still require a radical change in the "capacity dicipline" mentality first. Not just an end to the CD shrinkage, but a reversal while actually adding to capacity. Does anyone really see that happening?

IMO we're in permanent shrinkage mode with possibly a one time slight reprieve if the 717 situation lives up to its high water mark potential (still a big assumption) and then back to shrinking again, "growth" in the form of further consolidation, then leveraging synnergies by shrinking the excess from what we just bought.

If there's another plan, or even another non binding contingency intent, I'd sure like to see it.
Old 06-21-2012 | 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by DLpilot
It is in the powerpoint slide for the roadshows. I just read it. They are including 250+ early retirements to offset the work rule changes.
The union has in several publications included the ER program as a offset to job loss. Simply ignore it. It is not a offset. The actual job loss for the ALV plus 15 and 84 hour ALV is projected at 300 jobs. That 300 is offset to a certain extent by work rule changes in our favor. The net loss is hard to quantify since there are no exact ways to figure out what each change causes. Items in our favor for jobs include adding vacation and training into full calculations for reserves, 5 or 6 additional X days per year, reserves full at reserve guarantee instead of ALV among others.
Old 06-21-2012 | 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by gloopy
Theoretically yes. But that would still require a radical change in the "capacity dicipline" mentality first. Not just an end to the CD shrinkage, but a reversal while actually adding to capacity. Does anyone really see that happening?

IMO we're in permanent shrinkage mode with possibly a one time slight reprieve if the 717 situation lives up to its high water mark potential (still a big assumption) and then back to shrinking again, "growth" in the form of further consolidation, then leveraging synnergies by shrinking the excess from what we just bought.

If there's another plan, or even another non binding contingency intent, I'd sure like to see it.
Its odd that the company would agree to a block hour ratio if they are in a permanent shrinkage mode. Very strange also in that most of management compensation is in stock and single most important factor in stock price is growth. I suspect we will not see any growth as long as the economy is horrible. If it gets better I think you will see a lot of growth.
Old 06-21-2012 | 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
The union has in several publications included the ER program as a offset to job loss. Simply ignore it. It is not a offset. The actual job loss for the ALV plus 15 and 84 hour ALV is projected at 300 jobs. That 300 is offset to a certain extent by work rule changes in our favor. The net loss is hard to quantify since there are no exact ways to figure out what each change causes. Items in our favor for jobs include adding vacation and training into full calculations for reserves, 5 or 6 additional X days per year, reserves full at reserve guarantee instead of ALV among others.
That's exactly correct. The 300 loss is easy to calculate, the others aren't.

I just have to wonder about the roadshow slide on that.

The printed handout says "a slight increase"
The roadshow PDF on my iPad says "an increase of 72 pilots"
The slide shown at the latest roadshows says "an increase of 175"

It might be difficult to calculate but it seems to me that is precisely the function of the subject matter experts advising the NC during negotiations.

What other areas of the roadshow presentation might be changed after reviewing the numbers?

Cheers
George
Old 06-21-2012 | 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Its odd that the company would agree to a block hour ratio if they are in a permanent shrinkage mode. Very strange also in that most of management compensation is in stock and single most important factor in stock price is growth. I suspect we will not see any growth as long as the economy is horrible. If it gets better I think you will see a lot of growth.
What's even stranger is that every capacity reduction announcement results in a stock price increase. Strange, indeed.
Old 06-21-2012 | 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Its odd that the company would agree to a block hour ratio if they are in a permanent shrinkage mode. Very strange also in that most of management compensation is in stock and single most important factor in stock price is growth. I suspect we will not see any growth as long as the economy is horrible. If it gets better I think you will see a lot of growth.
I hear ya....not too bad though if the company only wants to shrink to a certain degree...maybe we have just a little further to go. stock price can change with "efficiencies" and mergers....neither which are necessarily good for pilot groups at times. I truly hope we are going to grow but I just can't get out there on my unicorn yet and ride for the rainbow

Hopefully we'll all do well and growth is on the horizon.
Old 06-21-2012 | 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Its odd that the company would agree to a block hour ratio if they are in a permanent shrinkage mode. Very strange also in that most of management compensation is in stock and single most important factor in stock price is growth. I suspect we will not see any growth as long as the economy is horrible. If it gets better I think you will see a lot of growth.
I pulled this from articles from July of last year but for reference here is one of them:

Delta's results "fell short of Wall Street profit estimates as fuel costs grew at a higher rate than revenue, and its shares fell to a new year low."

The response: Delta Air Lines will further reduce capacity this year… the company plans to "retire 140 aircraft by the end of 2012, including the entire DC-9 fleet and Saab turboprop fleet as well as sixty 50-seat regional jets. Half of the aircraft will exit the fleet this year, resulting in an estimated $250 million in maintenance savings."

And then the key part: "We will resize the airline to new flying levels and reduce the size of our fleet, staff, and facilities," CEO Richard Anderson is quoted as saying on a conference call. Anderson says such moves are necessary as the carrier adapts to "a permanent high-fuel-price environment."

"We're very focused on being certain that the flying we do produces positive cash flow -- it's that simple," Anderson is quoted as saying by The Wall Street Journal.

The Journal adds that Anderson made a point to say that Delta is more concerned about profitability than winning market share.

Notice the trend? We missed expectations which was met with reductions in fleet, staff and facilities as we remain focused on positive cash flow and profitability over winning market share. I still got a profit sharing check from 2011, but we missed expectations was enough to start more cutting.

Shrink to profitability. It's the opposite of SWA's grow for profitability but SWA based that growth on cheap tickets. We have no problem selling $1,200 tickets for a 1:15 flight in a CRJ-200 operated by an airline that refuses to be on time.


http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/p...earns/178842/1
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...iness+News%29:

Last edited by forgot to bid; 06-21-2012 at 11:55 AM.
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