Well, if there is a shortage of pilots due to cost then maybe the pay for pilots will increase? Which will cause more to come, loosen up those credit lines and more pilots would come in and we’ll find the equilibrium again

Of course, I don’t think airlines will ever increase pay. I think they’ll offer to pay for your training and then dock your pay for a lot more than it ever cost to send them to training.

And then eventually the flight schools will start get airliners to help develop their pilots in house... who will then undercut regionals...

 

That's like worrying that you are leaving out potentially good doctors because medical education is expensive, leaving out attorneys because law education is expensive, leaving out good master chefs because french chef school is too expensive. Those people should have a "chance", but it's not the same chance that someone that comes from a family of money has. That's reality and you can't "even" that out. The opportunities exist in the form of the military and REALISTIC scholarships (not ones that cover 1/10th of the cost and entice you to get loans for the other 9/10ths), and simply working hard for a long period of time. If you want to lower the bar so everyone can afford to be a pilot, don't be surprised when the wages are rock bottom and you get the ranks filled with the guys that are happy to fly for free. I don't think you can have it both ways. Barriers to entry will all exist and there's a difference between barriers (get 2-3 jobs, get in military, get in a high-earning industry to jump-start and save funds for flying, spend a longer amount of time working, etc) and blockades (not letting a certain race be a commercial pilot, being too old, etc).

 

Define: "demise of the industry".

Also...

Why are SOME (<---please note that qualifier) pilots so entitlement-minded as to believe they should get paid a high six-figure salary for doing a job that has become BOTH far safer AND much easier with the passage of time and the improvement of technologies?

If the overall risks and methods were the same as they were 20-30 years ago, do you think pay/benefits would have decreased the way they have?

 

The Railway Labor Act has ruined this profession.

Following Airline De Regulation in 1978, airline management has had a free hand in negotiating management friendly pilot contracts.

 

I do think flight training today is more expensive than in the past....but at least in my area not exponentially so. At an airport near where I live you can get a G1000 172 with instructor for about 155 to 160 per hour. When I started flying in 1978.... I paid $34 per hour with an instructor in a 152. Todays youth is probably making say 8 dollars per hour... so 20 hours of work to get an hour of flight training.... even numbers for easiness. I earned 2.25 an hour pumping gas....so it took about 15 hours of work to pay for that hour of flight training.

Cost was a barrier even then. I freely admit that with my military flight training I most likely would not be a professional pilot. Barriers to entry whatever they be are not necessarily bad.

 

they can't pay us in company dollars, can they?

 

I think in general terms this thread has defined demise of the industry for its purposes.

As a guy who has been in business for himself, I think I understand what you are asking/saying about entitlement minded. In a way I agree with the surface question...What makes a person think they are "worth" X number of dollars?

I recall being a fly on the wall during contract negotiations, several iterations ago. The conversation I overheard went something like..."But I am worth 200,000 per year and if this contract doesn't deliver that, I'm voting no!"

1st: In this job you don't get what you are worth, you get what the union negotiates and what the pilots agree to.

There is more to a contract than just section 3.

My personal first thought when overhearing that conversation was "prove it", hang your shingle and find out what you are "worth."

I don't think the job has markedly been saftified (not a real word) moreso than it was 20-30 years ago. Sure the displays are different, the accident rates are down, but the job is basically the same with roughly the same rules. So, the job today IMO has little bearing on pay today versus 20-30 years ago.

 

You'll have to overcome other obstacles, but the military doesn't care what income bracket you come from, but rather your demonstrated performance.

 

Gordon Bethune back in the day didn't mind hanging out with the low life Coex guys. He'd come say hi. I think he liked to gab. I had a buddy that cornered him and they ended up talking for a long while so I believe the story I'm about to tell you.

Some 1900 FO went up to Bethune and asked do you think it's right that an airline pilot only makes $1#,000 per year.

He said, why should I pay you more?

FO said... I have no idea what he said, might not have said anything. I have to say, if we demand more pay then we should always have a quantifiable reason for it that is at least as long as a bumper sticker.

 

Nothing wrong with any of that.

I was thinking if financing is not an option then that's a problem, but I look on ALL ATPs' website and they still have financing.

My main point in all of this would be that if we have barriers of entry, be wary of any that two or three steps down the road end up sacrificing quality.