Can't answer the question, can you?


TP

It takes some very flawed reasoning to blame well qualified pilots for going where the good employment opportunities are. There is no brotherhood in ALPA or in the USA in general. Brotherhood means looking out for your fellow industry professionals. This is something the ALPA has proven time and again to be either uninterested or unable to provide.

As far as route networks and international flying among the US carriers go I would love to see them play the ME carriers at their own game. The fact EK wants to start going across the Atlantic via the UK is a little scary for those carriers on those routes. United, Delta, American need to get in first and start servicing those cities. Birmingham, UK has a population of almost 3.7 million people, Manchester has a population of almost 2.7million. It takes 2-3 hours to drive to London from Birmingham, and 4 hours from Manchester. Emirates seems to have been punching the numbers and sees an opportunity - I would love the US carriers to do the same. I'd also love to see more routes into Asia with the massive population explosion there and more people entering the middle class. Unfortunately, until management can recognize an opportunity and make it happen then other airlines will be more than willing to step in. Get mad at lost market opportunities, not at your fellow pilots.

Lol.......strategic thinking huh? Ya great strategic thinkers like yourself have devised great solutions throughout history, like burning witches, holocaust, white hoods and burning crosses.

Dude do you know what the difference between you and an American working in the Middle East? ......you goth f%#%g lucky.

Now goto bed and let the adults carry on a more constructive conversation.

That's because Honda, Toyota, Nissan, BMW, etc are a quality product. Saturn & Pontiac, and most Ford / GM products are garbage. You can wave the American flag all you want but at the end of the day people want value for money.

My BMW was built in South Carolina. The P.O.S. Ford I used to drive was built in Canada.

The future of the industry? Regionals flying E190's within 5 years and taking over mainline domestic routes. Mainline flying mostly international in widebodies, Age 65 rule bumped up to age 67, regional pilots taking more concessions because "Jets R Us" starts operations and takes American Eagles flying. Eagle pilots get hired at "Jets R Us", start all over again on year 1 pay, and get bashed by everyone on this board for supporting the race to the bottom!

Bring on the name calling, you know I'm right!

You want to neutralize the threat? Start right here...

Airline Pilot Central - Regional

You should be so lucky to have EK or EY package in the US. But US airline pilots are no longer the proud professional group they once were. Instead, they are a bunch of Stockholm-syndrome-no-balls-blame-everyone-but-themselves bunch who don't give a flying f#%k about their legacy or what they leave behind. It's no wonder executive level compensation shot through the roof over the past decade... the management clearly has their act together. None of you chest-thumpers on here were willing to shut it all down when the pensions and scope were under attack. Quite the opposite, you folded like a house of cards, so it became totally obvious that NOTHING is sacred anymore, and everything was ripe for the taking...

To answer your question, UAW wouldn't accept ALPA's idiotic end-all-be-all seniority system tying you or your compensation or your experience to one airline. Would UAW be OK with an autoworker making $95/hour and once that plant shuts down move to another making $20/hour because all of a sudden, you're an apprentice again just because you change plants?! Bullsh*t! NO OTHER UNION TREATS THEIR MEMBERS LIKE THIS! NOT ONE!

Instead of worrying about overseas airlines, better pay attention to what's going on at home. Your enemy is right here at home...

Yeah, so many domestic issues to clean up before we start bashing the foreign guys. Shoot, the domestic problems are what cause American pilots to become expat pilots (generally.)

If we could make the USA the most desirable place to work as an airline pilot in terms of pay/benefits/qol then there would be a giant sucking sound as all the expats came home to roost. Those foreign carriers might have trouble staffing their own flights...

Unfortunately I think you're closer to the bullseye than people want to admit.

ALPA isn't in the same league as the UAW, and here's why...

Ford can't just shut down a UAW plant and move the tooling across the street and start a new plant using non-UAW labor. Company-wide, no Ford UAW members would come to work the next day. Sure, there would be grumbling and fighting amongst the membership about how much money Ford could save, profit sharing, competing with Toyota, etc, but Ford production (and profits) would grind to a stop overnight. Of course, the UAW has no RLA.

What happened last year when an ALPA major closed their ALPA subsidiary, and sent all the "tooling" to non-ALPA competitors?

The responses ranged from:

"Gee, that's gotta be rough. I hope someone hires those poor guys" to:

"Serves those guys right. Those dirtbags were always a thorn in my side."

Exactly why unions in America need to go away. Instead of paying a worker 80k for sitting around doing nothing (UAW here), elsewhere the companies are paying half, and making money. Now, from a business model, which America needs to figure out (Detroit and its manufacturing), we can not make money this way. Home building the same way. I would love to hire these guys (union), but these other guys here will cost me 15k cheaper to build this home. You can't do business that way. No wonder we don't make anything anymore, and our owned by China.
Now ALPA and the airlines are a tough and different realm. There are in house union, ALPA, teamsters, none, etc.. You are only as successful as your company. Again, why I have enjoyed watching some of the in house companies do well. ALPA can't do well, they have counteracted their goal for the past twenty years. You can't represent the regionals, and also the majors.
The future of the industry? It all depends on the economy, and the buying power of the public, oil, and about a dozen other factors. But anyone that thinks the magic hiring boom and huge pay raises are behind the corner, I unfortunately think you are mistaken. I hope I am wrong.

... and what is happening now in Detroit? Or how about Boeing moving an assembly plant to South Carolina? Naaaah, those unions are unbeatable. With an unemployment rate in the USA of 7+%, if any big corporation offers jobs to non-union workers in a depressed part of the country at a fraction of what they were making in... say Detroit... people will line up for miles to get a piece of it. I am guessing that you yourself will be one of thousands of applications at Delta Air Lines, even if we have the weakest stupidest union in the history of mankind. Why is that?

Is Charleston SC a depressed part of the country? It doesn't seem like it to me.

Aside from the smart a$$ comment, there is far more to the topics than we are going to touch on here.

Suffice it to say, I believe my son who is 8 will have to be an expat to have opportunities similar to what I had here at home.

Definition of capitalism (n)

Bing Dictionary
cap·i·tal·ism
[ káppit'l ìzzəm ]

1. free-market system: an economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and distribution of goods, characterized by a free competitive market and motivation by profit.

I, for one, think most Americans would be loathe to give up weekends, holidays, paid vacation, unemployment insurance, disability insurance, and a whole host of other benefits all of which came from the hard work of union organizers that worked under threat of death to themselves and their families during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Not until Milton Friedman came along in the late 1970s did we, as hard working Americans, think that profit motivation should surpass all other considerations. Today even the lowly ERJ pilot will espouse a capitalistic mantra that market economics are the savior of the world, and unions are the devil's own spawn. Do you really WANT to work like a dog and have no respect from the managers or do you just think that that is your only choice because if you don't someone else will?

20 years from now all airplanes will be grounded due to strict EPA regulations, blimps will be the way to fly.

LOL, you are right on the money. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Hiring boom now, big furloughs in a few years, and on and on....

Well said! The truth hurts, ho wait he's still in denial.

B.S. - The problem isn't pilot whimpiness, it's USA bankruptcy laws and above all, the RLA.

These two tools give management complete and supreme power to use as needed to gut contracts and impoverish pilots. When management can unilaterally dictate pay and work rules, and our only tools (strike and/or slowdown) are declared illegal by the courts, bought and paid for by airline executives... then we are screwed.

Unions can do very little so long as the RLA remains the law of the land. A job action is our only option to influence negotiations, and that tool has been removed from our tool chest.

Do you see yourself encouraging your son to fly professionally?

I want my son to do what makes him happy and gives him work fulfillment. I'm not really steering him in any direction, at least not right now. Right now, he wants to be a policeman or firefighter...we all did at his stage in life.

Why are you blaming capitalism? Do you think the antithesis to capitalism - socialism and communism - is the better alternative? And by the way, labor unions operate on capitalistic principles just as much as any corporation. Would you ever turn down a dollar more in your hourly wage, or would you ever reach a point in which you would turn it down because you are not "greedy"?

The point of any career is to exchange a skill set for wages and benefits that the individual feels is commensurate for the time he or she is willing to give to them. In other words, your feelings should not get hurt because you do not get hugs and kisses from the boss.

Second, have you ever wondered why most airlines pay their pilots the wages they do for the schedules they work while other industries offer their respective employees better wages and schedules for their skills? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that 20,000+ people compete for less than 500 job openings and are willing to do it for practically nothing while accepting lousy schedules. Don't believe me? Check out how many times your typical pilot will complain about his or her job and then, in the same breath say something like "beats working in a cubicle" or "this is the best job in the world." Don't blame the managers for taking advantage of a buyers market - you all do it to yourselves.

1. free-market system: an economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and distribution of goods, characterized by a free competitive market and motivation by profit.

Did you notice the phrase "private ownership" in the above definition? No corporation exists for the sole purpose of providing you with a job. If you like what they have to offer than agree to work for them. If not, then go somewhere else. Once you drop your entitlement attitude and realize the world does not owe you everything you desire, then and only then will this make sense to you. :rolleyes:

Interesting treatise despite the errors.

Labor unions are by definition socialist.

Free market capitalism does not actually exist outside of sole proprietorships or mom and pop operations - and that really isn't free market. What we really have in the airline industry (and most others), is corporate capitalism where the government and corporations collude and, in America at least, roughly achieve what Marx couldn't.

You trade your free time for dollars, you sell your life, for your wage. Depending upon how you value yourself and how long it takes you to come to this realization will help shape your path. It really is surprising, toward the end of working life, how equal everyone in the population is/are unless they screwed it up.

Points well taken.

yes, on the one hand they are socialist in the sense that you, for lack of a better phrase, sign your rights away when you join one. They set the rules and you need to follow them regardless of how you may feel about it - good, bad, or indifferent.

However, labor unions do operate under the laws of capitalism as well. Internally, their revenue must exceed their expenses in order to survive. They do have the advantage of raising dues in order to raise revenue, which is to say the price of belonging to the union. But, if the dues are raised too much and enough people refuse to pay them then either the union dissolves or is replaced by another one.

When it comes time to negotiate it is done under the laws of capitalism. Both sides come to the table and give-and-take until both sides come up with something they can live with. The company wants to preserve their bottom line as much as feasible, and the union wants to gain as much money, benefits, and quality of life for it's members. Both are driven by greed to some extent and neither are exempt.

Did you mean to say crony capitalism? I would agree that crony-capitalism is alive and well today, and I would also say that I don't believe crony-capitalism is true capitalism at all.

Crony capitalism is a coined phrase that implies collusion.

It very accurately describes an unhealthy mix of large corporations and government - which is what we currently see. And crony-capitalism is more akin to national socialization than free-market capitalism.

Thanks for your reply. I know Capt Sullenberger had testified that he didn't know of any pilot recommending their kids get into the industry. My personal observation is that, despite how much complaining there is, professional pilots actually do support their childrens' professional flying career choice. I believe I will really encourage my own kids to fly for fun...then I will have some partners in crime, and harder for my wife to say no. "Sweety-I'm going flying for the kid's sake, not mine!" :D

I see an airline surplus.

B.S. right back at ya. Here we go again.... blame EVERYONE and everything else. However, the 'YES' votes speak for themselves, and you can try spinning them whichever way you want.

Some things should be sacred. Airline pension gutted? Your flying outsourced against you? Suspension of Service or the so-called "ALPA nuke" as George E. Hopkins terms it. Again, some things are or should be sacred and/or contested and challenged at every step. I was an ALPA pilot when all this was going down and was absolutely disgusted with how every pilot group folded like a house of cards. I also saw the insane amount of greed by the older, senior pilots, well before the Age 65 rule.

I was laughing my head off at the whole "Taking it back" bull. While our pensions and scope were being gutted along with some paycuts going to 50%.... ALPA was valiantly fighting for TWIC. Seriously?!?

As I said, nothing is sacred to ALPA or US airline pilots. ALPA's 'red line' is a flexible, and easily adjustable target... just threaten them with something. It's embarrassing.

So before you start defending yourself again with how your hands are tied due to RLA, remember... some things in life should be sacred and worth fighting for even if you **** people off. RLA hasn't even been truly challenged in recent history. I'd say gutting the pensions, giving away your flying to 90-seat RJ operator, not to mention cutting some groups' pay by as much as 50% would qualify for a major dispute under RLA, and if not... make a stand and challenge the almost 100-year law! Nope.... house of cards, instead. That's the no-balls part.

Try again.

Nailed it.

So, the future of the industry looks like opportunities are overseas...or, if you are flying at a regional, that could very likely be your career glass ceiling.

In an (out maneuvered) effort to maintain current jobs, ALPA will bend or break on almost any strategically sacred aspect of the "career".

America has neither the economic power or will to stave off foreign ownership or cabotage forever.

Exactly. Nobody at ALPA National is willing to call a nation wide SOS, give up their $500,000 salary, paid retirement plan, medical plan and risk going to jail, over something as trivial as -your- pay rates and retirement plans. It would be nice if ALPA National Pres. lost his retirement and took a 42% pay cut but...nah, let's not go there!

I've been watching this slow motion train wreck ever since Bush 1 helped Frank Lorenzo take CAL, then Eastern apart. Franky smooth talk showed all the other Airline CEO's that if you can buy enough politicians, you can do what ever the fk you want, and get away with it. That was the time for a National SOS, before there were very many large foreign carriers who could replace us.

Right now, the sword hanging over ALPA's head is Cabotage. There will be no SOS, or any other large scale job actions, because if there were, in about a NY Second, our Politicians will give away the rest of our flying to the highest foreign bidder.

That's why National's only strategy now is; Constructive Appeasement.

Don't rock the boat, or else!

Soooooo, back to the original question.....The future of the airline industry? Will the regionals be forced out, or forced to pay more with the new ATP rules?

Regionals will shrink dramatically. The new FTDT regs combined with retirements at the majors will cripple them. Not only will they be losing massive efficiencies due to the new FTDT regs, they'll also have a huge lack of qualified applicants.

^ This, hopefully everyone who wants to move on is able.

Question: in light of the new FTDT regs, what are the chances the majors will operate less flights but with bigger aircraft between given city pairs? In other words, the customer will have less flights to choose from but the flights that are available will be on larger aircraft with more seats than in the past.

Probably pretty high.

GF

I agree with you.

I agree as well. Delta is already going that way.

I hope so too.

Living outside of U.S. made me realized just how much we live in a bubble not realizing what's happening outside...

Due to the signifigance shortfall of new pilot entering the career field, the regionals, NOT the majors, will have a problem with hiring. Does that mean the majors will reduce regional capacity? Maybe, BUT maybe not!

Considering the U.S. is not the only country with pilots who may meet the FAA new requirements, other countries have qualified pilots who are also seeking employment globally. Under the H1B visa program, if an U.S. employer is unable to find and hire a professional employee for an unfilled professional position, said company may temporarily hire a foreign national from outside the U.S. under the H1B visa program.

I remember when I use to fly for a 135 freight company in early yr 2000, 30% of its pilots were foreign nationals working under the H1B visa program because the company was unable to attract and hire legal resident/citizens to fill pilot positions due to the hiring wave that was occurring at the regional/major airlines.

Some scenarios may happen if the regional airlines decides to exploit the H1B visa program.

1. If they are able to find and hire qualified foreign national under the H1B visa program, then regional salaries will remain as they are. Majors retain routes and infrastructure. Everything remains status quo.

2. If regional airlines can not attract foreign national pilots, Regional airlines lose flying and majors lose routes to their competition.

So whats the business solution...

How I see, If regional airlines want retain their current fleet size, and the majors retain the current route structure, the majors will have to increase their regional partners departure fee. The regional airlines will inevitable have to increase their salaries to attract qualified pilots (whether resident/citizens or foreign nationals), OR...Majors reduce regional flying and obtain bigger aircraft while reducing flight frequencies.

Now I know there will be some that will say the regionals will not exploit the H1B program, but it was also be said the majors would take back flying from the regional partners. Currently facts do not support this trend. In fact, its the opposite, Approx 50% of Delta domestic routes are flown by regional airlines compared to 30% in 2005 and United just announced increase regional flying.

Something to ponder...