The future of the industry
 

This might be a loaded question and provide many opportunities for the conversation to get hijacked, but where does everyone see the industry in 1, 5, 10, 20 years? This includes what happens with the majors, regionals, pay, QOL, hiring, everything.......ok....have at it....:D

Consolidation continues:

DAL+Alaska within 1-2years from now
Jetblue+Virgin 4-6 years
United+Hawaiian 6-8years
AA+Jetblue/Virgin 8-10years

OR

AA+Hawaiian 6-8 years
Southwest+Jetblue 3-4 years
United+Virgin 5-8 years

Frontier will get bought by private equity, restructured to be an ultra low cost carrier, then sold to Spirit 2-4 years later.


There is room in the regional industry for 1 more big player. I thought it would be Pinnacle when they went on the buying spree, but Delta took them out of the picture. Maybe something will come from the AA/US merger where they spin off PSA/Piedmont/Eagle and that combined carrier buys TSA/Compass to be a rival to Republic and Skywest.

in 20 years somewhere a DC3 will still be earning its keep.

I see more pilots looking and living over seas.

UAVs will fly cargo in 10-15 years. I doubt airlines will use them though.

Well BL might want to drop the cargo thing all together then.

I (and 2 md-80s behind me) had a wind shear warning the other night in ORD at 500agl...boltered like hell, I thought to myself afterwards ..and people are to trust a drone for this?:confused: ya right

Majors doing only long haul. Regionals performing all domestic flying...except Southwest. Regional airline pilots will be unpaid internships. Permanent internships.

The future of the industry? We'll see.

What we can be sure of is that 99% of what is typed in this thread will end up wrong. :)

You got it. Airlines are turning profits, us getting a piece of it is on us- do we want to demand it? AA did their deal and made out fairly well, everyone else has caved to one degree or another.

More Entrants Coming
 

Just flew on SW with 100% LF. New entrants will be attracted to the industry.

I resigned my low-wage regional job to come to the ME over a year ago. My highest yearly salary at my previous employer was approx. 42K/yr as an FO. Now I make an avg 11.5K/mo (138K/yr). My living expenses are avg 3.5K/mo. That's a savings of 8K/mo. I'm on pace to upgrade to CA in a year an half, which will up my savings to 11.2K/mo. Of course, tax free :) (well at least a high percentage of it :(). I'm home most nights, with only two to three 2-day layovers a month. I've traveled to places such as Maldives, Seychelles, Europe, India, etc.

Being compensated exceptionally well, I must say, life is good! Only draw back...Its a money trap and its not home! I love it when you guys complain about about the industry back home, because it just makes me think twice about whether the grass will be greener back over the fence I jump over. So far, the grass is much greener on this side of the fence (i.e. Good pay, limited US taxation, lifestyle, career progression), but it does have a a few brown spots (life in the sand pit and Ramadan).

I see the legacy carriers are on a hiring trend. Delta, my #1 choice, announced they will be in hiring starting in the 4th qtr this year. I have my app in with Delta, but I'm not sure i will take it. If called, I do intend to attending the interview, just not sure what cross-road I will take if I'm offered a job. We'll have to see.

The future of our industry?

One word:

Cabotage.

I have no faith in our Senators and Congressmen, they will sell our industry to the highest bidders, and right now, that's Emirates, Qatar, Etihad and Air China. Our Senators would LOVE to sell them all unlimited access to the US Domestic market, they are already giving them too much access to our International markets, with more to come.

Don't take my word for it, ask anyone from Detroit who used to work for Saturn or Pontiac. Now look at that big Kia plant in Georgia, or at any of the other foreign car factories now in the USA. Honda, Toyota, Nissan, BMW, etc.

Where's the US Cruise ship industry these days?

That's where we are heading.

What company do you work for?

He might not say, they find out he's Interested in Delta they may stone him in the middle of the town square and arrest his wife just because :)



I keeeed I keeeed

I'll just say it's one of the big three. The pay at my airline is approx equal to those of the other two carriers (aside from the bonuses EK pilots receive).

I met a kid who flies for Sky Dubai about a year ago, in Dubai. He left Com Air (or ASA?) a couple years ago to fly 737's in Dubai. Said he loves it there and he's not coming back, even if DAL starts hiring. Said he didn't want to take a pay cut to sit bottom MD88 reserve, living in a crash pad in NYC. Can't say as I blame him.

Supply vs. Demand, we have a huge supply of qualified pilots living in the USA, willing to fly for cheap, here, but the other countries obviously don't, so they have to pay more to get them to move there.

Now, back to the topic of the US Airline Industry. Why do so many Americans drive Hondas and Toyotas?

Better product, lower price, sometimes both.

Do you think that will change if/when foreign carriers are allowed to fly within our domestic system? If they offer a better product, at the same or lower price, consumers will be all over it, just like with automobiles or anything else. It's already happening with our International flying.

America has the highest average standard of living in the world, but now, thanks to Free Trade, we have to compete in the "Global Economy". Well, when you are at the top of the Pay/Living standards pyramid, and now you have to compete with the middle and bottom of that pyramid, you only have one direction to go, pay/living standards wise, and it ain't up.

You wonder why American Manufacturing jobs are going overseas, and American Worker's wages have stagnated over the past 10-15 years? That's why.

Agree with most of what's already been said, but I'll throw in one more: age 67.

Great Pilot Shortage and the expected hiring boom will be mild compared to what most are expecting because, in short, the unions/workers have no power but the companies do. Companies, with the help of the gov, will pull various rabbits out of various hats (like age 67) to dampen any positive effects (for the work force) of a pilot shortage.

Hey, Corporations are People too! Just ask Mitt.

Why shouldn't they get to contribute billions to political candidates to make sure the labor laws favor...THEM?

Read this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czt0g5whffs

Cliff notes for you lazy bastages: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23RjIukVLUY

Timbos' two post are right on the mark.

Thanks, and here's some more good reading:

http://pilotpartisan.com/2013/07/09/...u-trade-talks/

This is the best post on the subject ever. Dem/Rep... does not matter. All that matters is cheap fares. M R Rats and all the other (politically incorrect censored comment here) owned carriers will be here before long. The only potential fly in that ointment could be the fallout from Asiana.

While I don't disagree with the postings entirely, the auto industry had a few wrinkles. The UAW thought getting the Japanese here would "level" the playing field by raising their costs to UAW levels since the UAW would organize them. It didn't work out that way. The Japanese and the Koreans moved into the South where they found lots of people who would work happily for less than UAW wages and not vote in the union. The companies loved production in the US especially with the weak dollar. The Congress didn't vote on this outcome, but they love it just the same. Jobs in a Congressman's district are all good, no matter the boss.

Look to Europe of all places for the future. Ryan Air, Easy Jet and now Niporwegian ULH maybe the future. Contracted pilots, individually who pay for their training; foreign pilots based in Asia buy flying thru Europe and EK-like operations maybe next. International flying by US and EU lines is going to be severely damaged or killed by these new operators. Look at QF's ongoing disaster and essentially taken over by EK.

I'm not convinced there is enough money to see the foreign lines invade the US domestic market, but if they can kill the profitable international flying, the domestic market will be hard pressed to be profitable. SW, with its contracts and fares, has created an image of inexpensive travel, but also an umbrella for the likes of Spirit, Jet Blue and the like to work under. They can offer loads of cheap seats with many willing to work for less than ALPA wages.

Imagine one of those combining with EK to provide one service, domestic and int'l. Frightening!

GF

1: Majors expanding and hiring.

2: Regionals expanding and hiring.

3: Majors shrinking and furloughing.

4: Regionals shrinking and furloughing.

5: Newly minted pilots saddled with $200K student loan debt and lousy prospects of career advancement/salary progression.

6: Aviation schools talking about upcoming pilot shortages.

7: Current pilots posting on APC about how bad the pay, stability, and QOL is like industry-wide.

8: Prospective pilots ignoring above info and asking questions on APC such as what is the quickest way into the industry.

9: Allegiant opens a pilot domicile in Gary, In.

10: Sky High still airing his complaints on APC.

Four large corporations, led by Carnival, now control most cruise lines:

Cruise ship FAQ Cruise line ownership - Beyondships2

http://www.wallpaperzhd.com/wp-conte...eagle-flag.jpg


:rolleyes:

I have no faith in us. We certainly aren't willing to do what we can to shore up our profession.

We're willing to welcome back those working at ME carriers with open arms. We need to face it: those folks are a part of the problem as ME carriers push to destroy our livelihood.

Imagine a US autoworker taking a job for a state-owned car manufacturer overseas. The company has unlimited capital and no need to show a profit, attempting to destroy the American auto industry by avoiding numerous US laws and other hurdles.

Do you think the UAW would welcome him back after he was tired of living abroad? Of course not.

Would he improve his chances if he said, "What's the big deal? They're winning because they build a better car than y'all do." He'd be tarred and feathered (if he was lucky).

Why are we pilots unable to see the similarities, and realize we're going to have to play dirty if we want to be here in 20 years.

Emirates eyes direct UK-US flights.

Emirates Airline eyes UK to US direct flights - Transport - ArabianBusiness.com

You're barking up the wrong tree again. You cannot fault a guy making six figures at United, Delta, or AA who was furloughed, couldn't get hired elsewhere because no one was hiring, and decides to go to Emirates.

Also in other words, you blacklisting all ex-pat American pilots from getting American pilot jobs here doesn't do a single thing to fix the problem you are complaining about. All it does is restrict a few newhire slots from non-expat pilots. Other than that, nothing is fixed so your solution is dumb.

Be sure to scroll down to read the comments. It's just a matter of time, because you know the politicians will gladly take the money offered. :rolleyes:

...and they employ very few Americans.

Here's some good reading, about how the UAE is going to help the US of A.

What do you suppose they might ask for in return? US Shipping Ports? More access to US Airports? Both?

Be sure to read on down to where they are building a Children's Hospital in Wash. DC. Who's kids might get treated there?

Can you say... Congress?

Joplin Tornado: United Arab Emirates pays millions for rebuilding of Missouri town | Mail Online

I'll scratch your back, you scratch mine. This is how it's done in DC.

I'm not calling those guys "scabs."
But those examples have been used by scabs.

It does do something to fix the problem if it dis-incentivizes well-qualified pilots from taking a job there (i.e., squeezes the labor supply at ME carriers, forcing them to increase labor costs or hire unqualified pilots.)

If a guy knows he will never be accepted into the American pilot community after he takes a job there, he might think twice about taking a job there. Let's be realistic. No one wants to spend decades there.

In any case, we owe it to ourselves to do everything we possibly can to kick ME carriers in the nuts before they do the same to us. We as more to lose than anyone (except for perhaps the elderly, overweight cat ranchers. But they can always get work doing the same job at the diner).

ME carriers are thinking strategically. So must we.

Can we agree that neither the UAW, nor any other self-respecting union, would tolerate, condone, or otherwise enable the situation we're allowing right now--guys who choose to work for our mortal enemies, welcomed back with open arms.

That's where the future of the US airline industry has to be. You either have to compete on product, or price. If you can do both - you'll rule the world.

Look to Europe: RyanAir and easyJet offer the lowest price. The best product - I'll leave that up to Skytrax to sort out. Emirates seems to really be bothering Air France, Lufthansa, and BA though. If they are having a hard time competing on product and/or price with Emirates, then AA, UA, and DL will too.

US legacy carriers are not the cheapest option. They're also not the best product (DL doesn't even offer first class internationally!). If some product differentiation into either low cost or best product doesn't happen soon, I have concerns about the long term viability of the legacy US airlines.

jetBlue is cheaper than any of them, and offers a better product (4 stars). I'm not saying jetBlue is the ideal, but it is an example of the challenge the US legacy carriers face when an airline can offer lower prices AND better service. Either lower the prices (like Spirit and Allegiant), or offer better service (4 stars, like Emirates, or 5 stars, like these carriers).

The 'jack of all trades' approach is dangerous, and may not have a long-term future without government intervention to prevent foreign carriers from making further inroads.

I refuse to believe you're this stupid. No offense.

First of all, disincentivize a well-qualified pilot from taking a job in the M.E.?! In favor of what? A $21/hour job at Mesa, an ALPA airline that used dirty and illegal tactics to push my airline and 350+ ALPA pilots on the street.... high paid ALPA pilots mind you?

Lets see... airline choices back then - Mesaba and GoJet. Gee..... tough choices there. With Mesaba 1st year FO pay, I still would have been eligible for unemployment to make up the difference between UI and my salary... courtesy of ALPA.

So what will you do for those who lose their jobs through no fault of their own? What are you gonna do for furloughees? Are you gonna take assessments to keep everyone from going to the ME in the spirit of brotherhood? How about place us into similar positions without interviews and without having to start over at below poverty wages?

Wake up! Those going abroad arent your enemy. Stop allowing 75-90 seat jets flown for wages that pay less than unemployment. Stop outsourcing your own flying! If you need to point a finger, point it at pilots going to Mesa, Republic, TransStates, GoJet, Compass, Skywest, Eagle, etc. But more importantly, point the finger at yourself for allowing those subcontractors to have grown like weeds at the expense of well-paying pilot jobs.

I swear, the ignorance and sheer stupidity found among US airline pilots is astounding.

Timbo, not too long ago I flew a Delta 767 across the Atlantic to Europe and I didn't have my own PTV and the food was so-so. Every Emirates flight has a PTV and the food is excellent. If US based airlines can't provide the basic services provided by everyone else in 2013, then maybe it is time to let Emirates fly from Europe to the USA. Fix your product to compete.


Choose to work for our mortal enemies? Emirates or Qatar aren't your mortal enemies.

Your mortal enemies are:

1. Scope clause loosening

2. Increase in 70 seater RJ flying

3. See #1 and #2

4. RLA

5. Management

Don't forget, you voluntarily voted in a 32.5% paycut! Yes, you felt forced and yes there was probably no other choice, BK was inevitable, would have done far worse, etc etc. Dead horse, beaten up.

But stop pointing fingers at EK or QR when the biggest problem lies in pilots HERE and the actions they have taken in the past 20 years in regards to RJs, scope, and concessions/paycuts.

Thank you, well said.

+1

I think Purple Drank may need to lay off the "Purple Drank"...

Effects of Purple Drank Abuse

So when an ALPA pilot in good standing gets furloughed or his company goes out of business and no other ALPA airline will interview him where do you expect him to go?

Just curious.



Typhoonpilot

I'm not here to make friends. I'm here to think strategically and get folks to contemplate how we can best neutralize the threats we face, in an attempt to keep major US airline jobs a viable career over the next 10-20 years.

The question was, would the UAW accept this situation.
Hell, no.

That thinking is naive and short-sighted.

Even folks who might not agree with me on how to combat them, readily agree that state-subsidized ME carriers are massive threats to our livelihoods--yes, mortal enemies.