Cockpit of the future
12-15-2014, 03:30 AM
#41
New Hire
Joined APC: Dec 2014
Position: 737 Captain
Posts: 3
Fully automated airliners ain't gonna happen in our lifetimes.
Computers just can't handle that level of complexity and constantly changing variables-along with unique situations which have never been planned for.
All these "skynet is self-aware" guys need to ask themselves why we don't have self-driving locomotives carrying all our passengers and freight? Why aren't there unmanned cruise ships sailing to the Bahamas?
Those are much simpler machines, operating in much more predictable environments. The logic that computers are gonna take over all passenger transportation-just because computers are getting "smart" is flawed. If that were the case, locomotives would definitely have become fully automated at least 50 years ago.
The type of intelligence required to operate airliners in complex environments is something computers fall far short of. They just can't handle approximations, novel situations, and analogy well at all. Not even on the level of a small child.
I am not worried at all about that threat to our careers. There are many much bigger fish to fry.
Computers just can't handle that level of complexity and constantly changing variables-along with unique situations which have never been planned for.
All these "skynet is self-aware" guys need to ask themselves why we don't have self-driving locomotives carrying all our passengers and freight? Why aren't there unmanned cruise ships sailing to the Bahamas?
Those are much simpler machines, operating in much more predictable environments. The logic that computers are gonna take over all passenger transportation-just because computers are getting "smart" is flawed. If that were the case, locomotives would definitely have become fully automated at least 50 years ago.
The type of intelligence required to operate airliners in complex environments is something computers fall far short of. They just can't handle approximations, novel situations, and analogy well at all. Not even on the level of a small child.
I am not worried at all about that threat to our careers. There are many much bigger fish to fry.
12-15-2014, 06:26 AM
#42
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,728
12-15-2014, 08:51 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: Volleyball Player
Posts: 3,989
Audi piloted driving
http://youtu.be/DeWriarFlsU
12-15-2014, 09:06 AM
#44
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
You just proved my point.
To install that technology, which does exist and has existed for at least 2 generations, would be so incredibly cost prohibitive compared to what the obsolete FO it would create would save in the first place.
They could have fully remote control self diagnosing self correcting airlines with one monittoring pilot anytime they wanted. But they can't afford it in the 121 environment and won't be able to for a very long time.
To install that technology, which does exist and has existed for at least 2 generations, would be so incredibly cost prohibitive compared to what the obsolete FO it would create would save in the first place.
They could have fully remote control self diagnosing self correcting airlines with one monittoring pilot anytime they wanted. But they can't afford it in the 121 environment and won't be able to for a very long time.
I attended last year, the tech is absolutely amazing. You'll change your mind once you talk to the actual manufactures, and developers.
12-15-2014, 09:37 AM
#45
Voice of Reason
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Position: Uncomfortable
Posts: 481
I think that most of you guys are looking at this stuff the wrong way...
It's not whether or not the technology exists/doesn't exist or when it will exist if it doesn't today (which it probably does).
The REAL question is how long is it going to be until the public is comfortable with not having a human in the flight station? Not a computer being monitored from the ground, but an actual human making sure everything is hunky dory.
Even if that day were tomorrow (which it obviously isn't), if one plane came down due to lost link or sunspot or localized EMP from an attack that could have been prevented or mitigated by a human pilot, how long would the 'pilotless' era last? Not long...
The technology (probably) exists today for aircraft to take off, travel A-B and land without a pilot (at least in a controlled, no complex EP environment). The comfort level of the public and the liability that would be faced from one (preventable/mitigatable) crash will be what keeps this from happening anytime soon.
It's not whether or not the technology exists/doesn't exist or when it will exist if it doesn't today (which it probably does).
The REAL question is how long is it going to be until the public is comfortable with not having a human in the flight station? Not a computer being monitored from the ground, but an actual human making sure everything is hunky dory.
Even if that day were tomorrow (which it obviously isn't), if one plane came down due to lost link or sunspot or localized EMP from an attack that could have been prevented or mitigated by a human pilot, how long would the 'pilotless' era last? Not long...
The technology (probably) exists today for aircraft to take off, travel A-B and land without a pilot (at least in a controlled, no complex EP environment). The comfort level of the public and the liability that would be faced from one (preventable/mitigatable) crash will be what keeps this from happening anytime soon.
12-16-2014, 09:13 AM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,537
I suggest you attend Nvidia's GTC conference, where all of the people who are working on this stuff collaborate. Who Attends | GPU Technology Conference
I attended last year, the tech is absolutely amazing. You'll change your mind once you talk to the actual manufactures, and developers.
I attended last year, the tech is absolutely amazing. You'll change your mind once you talk to the actual manufactures, and developers.
12-16-2014, 11:46 AM
#47
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
The "tech" has existed for generations. But its no where remotely close to being cost effective. No amount of RAM or CPU speed or software magic can change the hardware realities. Human pilots are an incredible bargain for them for the level of safety redundancy and ability to function in the unforeseen.
12-16-2014, 09:45 PM
#48
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,537
It's the government, not the cost of the tech. The government won't allow the certification of single pilot 121 aircraft, thus no manufacturer is going to develop one. It's actually cheaper now to build a single pilot aircraft vs a two pilot aircraft, this is straight from an engineering executive at Boeing.
Whoever told you that either doesn't understand the basic realities of 121 flying, or they were just stroking themselves and the importance of their little pet project they wrote a white paper on and are trying to get someone to read.
12-17-2014, 08:41 AM
#49
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 25
I'm sure they can save a few bucks by eliminating the other control column or O2 mask or whatever. But then add in the cost of multipile redundant hacker proof remote control links, fully self contained redundant backups and many additional autopilots, and several additional auto throttles. Oh and CAT III autoland everywhere, multipile redundant remote control robotic actuators for every function, etc and their phony little over scaled single pilot Citation fantasy falls apart real quick.
Whoever told you that either doesn't understand the basic realities of 121 flying, or they were just stroking themselves and the importance of their little pet project they wrote a white paper on and are trying to get someone to read.
Whoever told you that either doesn't understand the basic realities of 121 flying, or they were just stroking themselves and the importance of their little pet project they wrote a white paper on and are trying to get someone to read.
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