Any CAs leaving JBlue/Spirit/F9/VX/Allegiant
 

Have there been many junior (or not so junior) CAs leaving for AA,DAL, UAL?

I work for Spirit and make less as a 5th year CA than a 3rd year Legacy F/O. Currently in contract negotiations but see it dragging out. Have my apps out and just trying to see if anyone else in the left seat trying to bail

(JetBlues junior CA rates are significantly higher than Spirits) I'm also getting the feeling our N/C doesn't want to fix it.

Great job, Good QOL, love the pilot group etc, but I go to work to get paid.

If your wanting to go down that path do it sooner rather than later… hiring boom won't last forever. Big question is will more consolidation occur… which will result in seniority list integration… how will that possibly impact a pilot at a LCC?

I doubt very much there will be any consolidation at the legacy level. There's no way the DOJ would allow it (a Republican administration might make it a bit more likely.) The LCC level is an entirely different story.

I think that's what he meant.

It's frustrating because I'm in the top 40-ish % but having 30 years left Its a lot easier for Spirit to go away than a legacy.

The legacies certainly can't consolidate with each other, but what about a big 3 buying frontier, spirit or virgin? That's still a real possibility, right?

As far as captains at the LCC leaving, I know that one frontier guy did, but he had recall rights

I can't envision the DOJ allowing a legacy to acquire a LCC. The people have rights to low-cost seats!:rolleyes:

I think a lot of guys think about this.. How long does it take to recoup $200k a year starting over at a legacy? Not just make $200k at a legacy, but make up the difference in those first couple of years.

Not according to Chuck Schumer. He wants pax airline seats to have a min of 35". If he got his way, airlines would have to raise their ticket prices because there would be less seats.
The guy is a class A a-hole.

IMHO...

Why would a legacy buy one of the LCC carriers? If the LCC's have any valuable slots into NYC or other slot controlled airport, the DOT makes them give some away to make the deal go through. Realistically, that would be the main reason to merge with a LCC. If you do it to stifle competition, it's pointless, another one will spring up out of the ether to take it's place. Money's cheap, oils low, and barriers to entry are minimal.

So in the end, if any of the legacies wanted to go into the LCC business (tried to before, doesn't work because your a legacy cost structure selling tickets at a LCC price point) they could just buy a gaggle of airbus and saturate a bunch of point to point vacation markets.

By and large, the LCC's and Legacies are aiming for different customers and different segments of the traveling market.

Traditionally with oil this low for a period of time, the whole industry would go on a expansion fever, trying to garner that elusive market share. Then just as all the new jets and employees would be taking to the sky, the economy would turn only to leave the companies with huge capital outflows and minimal revenues.

This latest era of the industry has shown management that they don't need to recklessly pursue marketshare, but instead can get rich by increasing the companies profit margin through consolidations, limiting growth, and using JV's.

Also, the huge retirements at the legacies also make it increasingly hard to hire and train enough people to replace those who are leaving, let alone try and grow at any appreciable clip.

Agreed 100%


I also don't expect a legacy to buy a LCC. No reason to

I think QOL is the biggest driver.


But to your point, I think that having to work 18-20 days for your 2 large is different from working 12-15 days for 2 large.

Everyone's situation is gonna be different here. Married, kids, commute, upside down mortgage, money to burn, ect...

We still have about 80ish AA recalls at jb and few are expected to go back. But I have two buddies at SWA that are going back. It's all perspective.

Once I could hold 320ca I quit updating resumes. hoping bluejet wins for 28 more years.

cheers

I would feel the same way at $180/hr but at Spiirt as a 5th year CA I make $136. It's absolutely disgraceful. Who knows how long our negotiations will last. We have the highest "slope" in the industry

I hear ya Brotha. gotta do whats right for you. If you're young enough, I'd say go whole hog and try to get up with one of the big 3. sooner the better if youre gonna go obviously. Get the apps out and get some interviews, make the call when you have the opportunity.

goodluck

I'm in the same boat brother. Waiting around for a great contract seems risky. I've updated my app's with the big 3 and will cross that bridge when I come to it.

Why are you accepting that pay rate? Move on. No time better than NOW!

Exactly!!! I don't know why guys are fixated on that rate. The industry average for five year captain is $196 per.

I'm not accepting it, I can't do anything but apply and wait. I wasn't necessarily asking "if" I should move on, I was asking how many Junior CAs at non legacy airlines have/intend to.

Also $180-196 is not nearly as dramatic as $180-135. That was my only point in using JB rates

Almost everyone I know at Allegiant, both captain and FO, are looking to move on.

I agree Vegas,

I don't think our N/C is that interested in fixing it, either.

Been at JetBlue for about 3 years , haven't seen any CA leave for the big three except for a small amount that had recall rights to Delta and a few still have recall rights to AA.Sure FO's have left but Ca's maybe one or two.

I could actually see a legacy buying us and keep running as a separate LLC similar to what Lufthansa is doing with Germanwings. Lots of advantages doing so.

They'll fix it, when we get a contract in 2020 and we don't have "Junior CAs"

So frustrating

And you'd rather have your paying customers squished in narrow seats?

That's pretty true now. In 2013-2014 we had quite a few 5-6 year Captains leave when the gates first really opened at UA and AA. Mostly guys that lived in one of those bases, and were mid-30s. Also was prior to the ALPA vote. Most of us are staying put and riding it out now.

It's their choice if it's between being squished or paying more, anyway entirely for a different thread

I think the same kinda applies to VX as well.

The main point is the government deregulated the airlines a long time ago. Now from a safety standpoint they still have the responsibility to regulate airlines via the FAA and DOT, however, when it comes to inflight service (seating, food, amenities, etc), the government has no business telling airlines how to run. Either re-regulate the industry, or leave them alone and let them run their own services the way they desire. You can't just pick something and say 35" should be a law because a politician said so.

I think you'll start to see the LCCs have junior CA attrition when the bottom of their seniority lists turn into revolving doors as legacies hire more LCC pilots.

Just look at regionals. Their entire seniority lists are moving backward due to their seniority lists shrinking. The same is very likely to happen at the LCCs within a few years. All of a sudden, those junior CAs today end up flying a lot of trips as senior FOs because the company can't keep FOs on property. Will the LCCs pay junior CAs left seat pay to sit in the right seat? Not when it becomes a regular thing and they have to downgrade junior CAs to FO.

I listened to the person in charge of hiring at United speak to a small group of pilots a few weeks ago about hiring at United and he expressed concern about the stack of applications shrinking. If the legacies are expressing concern about the smaller hiring pool, I've got to imagine it is getting a lot tougher at the LCCs.

A recent United class had 23 newhires; out of those 23, at least one was from Spirit and one was from Allegiant. Granted, both were FOs but LCCs are going to find themselves unable to grow because they'll have to be hiring as many as possible just to keep up with attrition.

As far as future pay trends, I think that the legacies will be able to throw money at pilots a lot faster than LCCs because legacies will be able to raise ticket prices faster than LCCs. A businessman will have to/be able to pay higher ticket prices while a family will be more reluctant to take a vacation if ticket prices rise significantly.

I had a conversation on the jumpseat back in 2012 with a regional crew. The FO was applying to all legacies. The CA had more than a decade at the company and was hesitant to walk away from his seniority - he was still on the fence whether or not to bail to a legacy. I told him that I expected his seniority to move backward over the coming years due to all of the attrition at the bottom. And that's exactly what's happened over the last three years - the CA's seniority has moved backward. I expect LCCs to see the same backward movement in seniority within the next few years.

Not at all likely for a number of reasons.

This is exactly why scope is the #1 section in any Legacies contract. If they could have gotten away with that, they would have about 15 years ago!

Not going to happen and to stay at an LCC in hopes of being absorbed by a Legacy in the future would be a big mistake IMHO.

Stay at a LCC because your home every night, they base you in a city you want to live, you don't want to be bothered learning different aircraft types throughout your career, or you don't want to have to think about how to best invest your excess 401K contributions.

But don't stay there thinking that one day a legacy will purchase you.

I could maybe see a day where the LCC's combine, or even SWA buys one for more airport access and to put down some competition, but really can't see a legacy wanting it (or it's employees to allow it in the manner you suggest).

I think its more likely the LCC's consolidate with each other. Many people think a Frontier and Spirit marriage is inevitable. JetBlue and Southwest has been floated before.

Others like Allegiant etc.. will simply just go out of business as I don't see their business model fitting in with anyone else. Allegiant would have to do the acquiring though if they were to merge.

It's inevitable. LCC future is in as much doubt as the regional airlines.

Why is it inevitable?

No way. I'm sorry but I don't believe that for a second. For a myriad of reasons. The way regionals are compensated (FFD) etc vs LCC etc..... The list is long

Just my opinion. Besides, it was the legacies in the past who needed a government bailout, not SWA, Spirit, JetBlue etc.

The model works it's just would they rather pay pilots or simply shut the doors, lol.

I doubt any legacy scope clause would allow that.

That's completely incorrect. If you think that LCCs haven't gotten govt assistance monetarily, through asset seizures (forced divestitures) and redistribution, sweetheart deals on airport usage/fees, etc, you do not understand anything about the business.

Example: How many airlines were allowed to bid for the 2 gates at Dallas Love that American was forced to divest? Exactly one. Virgin America.
Just one of many, many examples.

As far as post-911 government bailouts, do you know how much United, one of the two airlines that lost aircraft on 911, received in government bailouts?

Explain why you think the LCC's are in as much doubt as the regionals?

Myth that is falsely propagated. Only lcc airlines received govt "loans" , you said bailout, post 9-11. UAL was actually rejected and DAL and AA never applied.

Only airline I remember specifically was lcc awa at the time but as I remember all the loans were repaid with interest so the govt actually made money off that deal.

You hear this urban myth all the time though so I don't fault the youngsters for repeating it.

It wouldn't surprise me if the lcc Mgmt itself likes to propagate the idea that proper pay for pilots lead the legacies to their demise and not ill conceived Mgmt desire to capture/ maintain market share. It serves their narrative that "we're lccs and we don't pay employees what the legacies pay despite you do the same exact job, with less support in many cases, than other legacy pilots.

Your Mgmt likes you to believe that legacy pay will lead to the demise of lccs and not poor mgmt decisions.

Look at new student/private/commercial/ATP certificates issued over the last decade. The pipeline of new pilots looks bleak right now which means airlines are going to try to hire as many qualified pilots as they can get their hands on.

The hiring at legacies over the last four years has turned the regionals from well staffed to train wrecks. And the hiring at legacies during that time is only enough to meet retirements plus minor growth. Legacy retirements alone require ~2000 new hires per year.

Let's not forget that all airlines - legacies, LCCs, and regionals are fishing from the same pond of pilot candidates. The legacies are able to offer better 'bait' (pay, QOL) than LCCs and regionals. This has already started killing the regionals. I expect the same to happen to LCCs, as I don't think that they can compete against the legacies for a smaller pilot pool.

We'll either see a huge surge in new pilot certificates which will meet demand for pilots or the LCCs will start having problems recruiting and retaining pilots within the next few years.

My management has nothing to do with what I think I should be paid. What they think and what I think is completely different.

I apologize. I spoke incorrectly. I said bailout, I don't know why I said that, I meant Bankrputcy.......

I