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Rumor American buying Mesa

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Old 12-21-2018, 07:31 AM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by calmwinds View Post
I still wonder why United hasn’t been clear which regional was losing CRJ700 flying. United may he playing GoJet against Mesa in contract negotiations. I suspect the decision is already made and they are working with the regional on the best way to announce the news.

JO in the investor call made it clear he was very confident the CRJ700’s would be renewed, but there were other opportunities that must be negotiated with United first. If we lose the United flying, I would anticipate investor lawsuits over those comments.
Remember the disclaimer they make at the beginning of those investor calls. They give out information based on current information at hand... it means Mesa has to say the truth and nothing but the truth at that moment, but United is not under such obligation with Mesa or any of their investors, plus things can change from one day to the other... so the things they say or don’t on those calls are to be taken with a grain of salt.
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Old 12-21-2018, 08:02 AM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by Jungedrache View Post
Remember the disclaimer they make at the beginning of those investor calls. They give out information based on current information at hand... it means Mesa has to say the truth and nothing but the truth at that moment, but United is not under such obligation with Mesa or any of their investors, plus things can change from one day to the other... so the things they say or don’t on those calls are to be taken with a grain of salt.
Still will be an investor lawsuit if the United flying is lost. We live in a litigious society where you sue first and ask questions later. JO will have to prove he had reasons for being extremely optimistic. His defense will be -IF- United was actively negotiating with Mesa over the CRJ700 renewal. We are down to around $7.30 per share and falling.
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Old 12-21-2018, 08:18 AM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by calmwinds View Post
I still wonder why United hasn’t been clear which regional was losing CRJ700 flying. United may he playing GoJet against Mesa in contract negotiations. I suspect the decision is already made and they are working with the regional on the best way to announce the news.

JO in the investor call made it clear he was very confident the CRJ700’s would be renewed, but there were other opportunities that must be negotiated with United first. If we lose the United flying, I would anticipate investor lawsuits over those comments.

My guess would have been our CRJ700’s will be replaced with E175SC’s in 2020, the Ejets would be extended 2 years per United’s option, and we would be flying the 20 new Ejets in 2020. Given United gave all 25 Ejets to ExpressJet and promised the next 25 Ejets to SkyWest as part of United’s purchase of ExpressJet, I am less confident in that guess but it is still my leading prognostication.
Thats why conference calls all start with “safe harbor/forward looking statements”....
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Old 12-21-2018, 08:42 AM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by amcnd View Post
Thats why conference calls all start with “safe harbor/forward looking statements”....
Those statements don’t stop lawsuits. They are simply a defense against them. JO couldn’t say Mesa was “very confident” in a baseless way without getting into some hot water. He actually explained on the call that the CRJ700 renewal was tied to some other negotiations. That is the reason I expect the CRJ700’s to be renewed, JO had some basis for his confidence. Either that, he is an idiot or he was played. And, he is not an idiot.

We will all know soon enough.
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Old 12-21-2018, 09:34 PM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by 20sx View Post
Why would United want to dump our 175s when we’re cheap and do a good job? CAT IIs are nice and we need to be compliant, but it hardly ever happens and would only happen IMO if the companies relationship had soured. I don’t see that.
No displacements unless within 6 months of closure Dulles opens as an ejet base. They’ve gone this long without it being an official base, they can go 6 more months if needed. There’s 11 more jet transfers for 2019...
Let me explain why this is important. Few days ago three Mesa flights could not launch from DCA to IAH because of low visibility and fog. I was the first flight, another flight was leaving an hour later then a Republic flight, then another flight Mesa flight was scheduled after republic. TAKE A WILD GUESS WHO LAUNCHED FIRST. Republic. I had to explain to my pax why a UAX plane could leave before us. They could see it in there apps. Yes it's pretty freaking important. Republic can go to 1200 with their CAT II. We can only do down to 1600. I assure you United took notice.
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Old 12-21-2018, 09:43 PM
  #76  
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Are you guys struggling that much with Cat 2?
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Old 12-22-2018, 02:56 AM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by NovemberBravo View Post
Are you guys struggling that much with Cat 2?
Mesa is technically defaulting on the Ejet contract.

We can’t get to the required 90% pass rate on the line. I don’t know when the FAA last tried to qualify us.

I hear we fail for a variety of reasons. The pilots don’t check the surface winds against the maximum. That we land on a runway with LAHSO in effect. Our callouts suck. The CA doesn’t make the callouts based on the Baro but the RA. The CA takes over control at the wrong altitude.

The training department wants nothing to do with owning it. So, they claim it isn’t training. And, that is the flight crews not practicing the CAT II’s enough. So, the training department does everything it can to deflect blame instead of everything they can do to make sure we do them right.

I see no priority placed on CAT II’s. Not by training. Not by the line pilots. Mesa seems to have this attitude that we don’t need to do them, so we won’t put in the effort.

Our training is a joke on CAT II’s. We train at a sea level airport in the SIM’s where guys can cheat and use the RA for their callouts. We do single LOFT so the pilots don’t get the flow of preparing for a CAT II. It is left to the line check airman to teach.

Enough said.
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Old 12-22-2018, 03:01 AM
  #78  
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Originally Posted by avi8tor614 View Post
Let me explain why this is important. Few days ago three Mesa flights could not launch from DCA to IAH because of low visibility and fog. I was the first flight, another flight was leaving an hour later then a Republic flight, then another flight Mesa flight was scheduled after republic. TAKE A WILD GUESS WHO LAUNCHED FIRST. Republic. I had to explain to my pax why a UAX plane could leave before us. They could see it in there apps. Yes it's pretty freaking important. Republic can go to 1200 with their CAT II. We can only do down to 1600. I assure you United took notice.
Same experience here except it was a different airport and it was ExpressJet pushing earlier than us. The gate agents ask why we can’t push. So, at least the United gate agent supervisors know there is something “wrong” with Mesa.
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Old 12-22-2018, 05:13 AM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by calmwinds View Post
Mesa is technically defaulting on the Ejet contract.

We can’t get to the required 90% pass rate on the line. I don’t know when the FAA last tried to qualify us.

I hear we fail for a variety of reasons. The pilots don’t check the surface winds against the maximum. That we land on a runway with LAHSO in effect. Our callouts suck. The CA doesn’t make the callouts based on the Baro but the RA. The CA takes over control at the wrong altitude.

The training department wants nothing to do with owning it. So, they claim it isn’t training. And, that is the flight crews not practicing the CAT II’s enough. So, the training department does everything it can to deflect blame instead of everything they can do to make sure we do them right.

I see no priority placed on CAT II’s. Not by training. Not by the line pilots. Mesa seems to have this attitude that we don’t need to do them, so we won’t put in the effort.

Our training is a joke on CAT II’s. We train at a sea level airport in the SIM’s where guys can cheat and use the RA for their callouts. We do single LOFT so the pilots don’t get the flow of preparing for a CAT II. It is left to the line check airman to teach.

Enough said.
Wow, that isn’t that much of a different procedure then the CAT II on the crj side. How on earth can the results be so much different?
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Old 12-22-2018, 06:04 AM
  #80  
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Originally Posted by terks43 View Post
Wow, that isn’t that much of a different procedure then the CAT II on the crj side. How on earth can the results be so much different?
One of two possibilities: 1) the training is better on the CRJ side 2) the CRJ pilots would not qualify if put to the test today.

Last edited by calmwinds; 12-22-2018 at 06:49 AM.
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