Does anyone else get the feeling that MAG will emerge by the end of this year with a fleet of only 76 seat plus aircraft?

 

Probably a safe assumption...unless you have a lucrative feed contract which is longer than your lease commitment (tail risk), anybody in their right mind would want to unload their 50-seaters.

 

THey still have 20 CRJ700s (66 seats) flying for UAX

 

The ones they still have contracts flying for they'll probably get lowered leases on them on the threat that 'Either give us a deal or we'll get rid of them alltogether right now'.

 

I don't know where to start in terms of your english or you're timing but altogether you're spouting off is miraculous and miserable...someone please make me wrong on this

 

I think the fact remains that regardless of the BK outcome, Mesa will have no future feed contracts, either new or renewed. Those carriers they haven't directly alienated are sure not to place their businesses in potential jeopardy by relying on this company, new management or not.

With so many other feeder choices out there, its a no-brainer. Current MAG pilots should evaluate the length of the feed contract that provides their income and expect that to be the duration of their MAG employment unless they can bump into a longer contract until that ends.

That would be the prudent thing to do.

 

Well said!

 

At face value, so it might seem so. But airlines management groups have a lot of turnover, and they don't have what I would I consider a long corporate memory. It would probably help if OJ were to somehow get divorced from mag...but I'm not sure that's possible, it seems mesa is a just a large extension of his ego.

In general I'd say there's a chance that at renewal time mag will get to compete. It is possible that the majors will take a "best value" approach instead of a "lowest cost" approach in the future. Possible, but not guaranteed by any means.

Doug Parker might be another story...he's been talking the big talk to his employees for years now and apparently personally despises OJ. Unless he simply can't live without 39 900's I suspect that he will not renew.

If a UA/US merger were to somehow happen, mag would be out of the US side for sure if for no other reason than timing. There would be a near-term need to cut feed at the merged company, and UA-ALPA has 90 seat scope. It would make sense to just let that contract die.

 

The prudent thing to do is count how many aircraft on your certificate with 50 seats or less.

FAA Aerospace Forecast
Fiscal Years 2010-2030

winglet

 

As long as Mesa comes in under par with prices when they discuss the contract, then I think Parker will keep them. He just said on the last Crew News that he is somewhat happy with Mesa. Only issue right now is the 900 interiors. Now, Parker changes his tone each month, so I'm not sure what to believe anymore. One month he says he would be happy if Mesa would just close up shop, then as soon as they file bk, he said they are too important to let fail. Who knows.