USAF in danger due to pilot shortage
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,232
for a minute I thought I was reading this circa-2000 RAND report
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1204.pdf
23 years later, and we are still "looking at ways to solve this problem"
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1204.pdf
23 years later, and we are still "looking at ways to solve this problem"
Fast forward to 2014 or 2015. I'm helping at job fairs. Guys are having their friends contact me for info/insight. One of the guys is an O-5 up for O-6 in the Pentagon. Briefing the Under Secretary of the AF (a lady....so that might help out what year it was) on the pilot retention issue. He retires. "Yes, ma'am. I'm outta here!" Staying to pin on O-6 wasn't worth it. Getting to the majors sooner was. Got on with Delta and moved back to where his kids could grow up with their cousins and grandparents after being at the whim of mil personnel office for the last 20 years. It's called 'winning.'
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,232
The Eighth Air Force flying B-17s out of England had a loss rate of about 5% PER MISSION. Not all those people died, some became POWs, but either way your chance of coming back to base on average was 95%. Now multiply that by a 25 mission tour and that comes out to be (0.95)^25 or roughly 28% of getting through without dying or becoming a POW. Not surprising they were a little crazy. It was likely a job requirement.
#63
... Getting to the majors sooner was. Got on with Delta and moved back to where his kids could grow up with their cousins and grandparents ...
Exactly this. Everyone reaches their line with AD and this was one of the main factors for me as well. They need to realize you're not going to keep most of us for a full AD 20. If anything, they should shorten the commitment back to 8 yrs at least; guys will still be hungry and less jaded. They'll have the airline/contract gig and no doubt keep Guard/Res bummin' so the AD maintains, and the TFI retention and overall force health may improve.
Exactly this. Everyone reaches their line with AD and this was one of the main factors for me as well. They need to realize you're not going to keep most of us for a full AD 20. If anything, they should shorten the commitment back to 8 yrs at least; guys will still be hungry and less jaded. They'll have the airline/contract gig and no doubt keep Guard/Res bummin' so the AD maintains, and the TFI retention and overall force health may improve.
#64
One of the guys is an O-5 up for O-6 in the Pentagon. Briefing the Under Secretary of the AF (a lady....so that might help out what year it was) on the pilot retention issue. He retires. "Yes, ma'am. I'm outta here!" Staying to pin on O-6 wasn't worth it. Getting to the majors sooner was. Got on with Delta and moved back to where his kids could grow up with their cousins and grandparents after being at the whim of mil personnel office for the last 20 years. It's called 'winning.'
#65
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Wind checker
Posts: 763
There is zero shortage of people who want to be AF pilots. None. There has never been an empty seat on the first day of UPT. Not one.
Unfortunately, the shortage is 10 year experienced guys who actually know what they are doing. Officers in their shoes get out for every reason under the sun--pay, QoL, queep. Give a warrant officer the same fixed wing qualifications as the current officers at the end of their service commitments and they will punch out at the same rate. So unless WOs have some secret source of patriotism that only they know of, this is really a non-starter.
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,232
Guys who were in the USAFR units, and perhaps involved with their units recruiting, said that several years ago (late 201x's?) USAFR SUPT slots were going unfilled. That's a mind boggling concept. IDK if that's still true now. I'm guessing, or they stated, that the slots would be returned to the active duty side of the house. They also menitoned I system that I wasn't aware of - you could get a generic USAFR SUPT slot not specifically linked to a particular unit. As you progressed they'd find a unit for you. That's another mind-boggling concept as a reservist.
#67
Aviation is THE mission for the USAF. It is the large preponderance of the conventional power projection capability for the Navy. Both services need aviation to be very well-represented in staff and key leadership positions all the way up the chain of command. So they need aviation experienced officers who can punch at the appropriate weight (rank) relative to other branches and services. Especially in the joint and coalition contexts.
In the Army aviation is an enabler mostly for the Army itself. It only needs representation relative to other Army branches, which it has with a relatively small cadre of commissioned officers. Not that Army aviation doesn't need officer representaton, it just doesn't need as much, or in as many places.
The issue isn't compensation, don't need a particular O vs. E pay scale, bonuses can take care of that. Some enlisted SEALs have gotten retention bonuses at least as generous as pilots.
From a recruiting perspective, bright shiny military jets allows the AF and Navy to attract people who they hope will make good senior staff officers and leaders down the road. The want a large inventory of those to start with to account for attrition (airlines are an aggravating factor).
#68
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 103
Guys who were in the USAFR units, and perhaps involved with their units recruiting, said that several years ago (late 201x's?) USAFR SUPT slots were going unfilled. That's a mind boggling concept. IDK if that's still true now. I'm guessing, or they stated, that the slots would be returned to the active duty side of the house. They also menitoned I system that I wasn't aware of - you could get a generic USAFR SUPT slot not specifically linked to a particular unit. As you progressed they'd find a unit for you. That's another mind-boggling concept as a reservist.
#69
Occasional box hauler
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,692
Guys who were in the USAFR units, and perhaps involved with their units recruiting, said that several years ago (late 201x's?) USAFR SUPT slots were going unfilled. That's a mind boggling concept. IDK if that's still true now. I'm guessing, or they stated, that the slots would be returned to the active duty side of the house. They also menitoned I system that I wasn't aware of - you could get a generic USAFR SUPT slot not specifically linked to a particular unit. As you progressed they'd find a unit for you. That's another mind-boggling concept as a reservist.
#70
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,232
I've told a couple guys - "get hired young enough and you can join the USAFR/ANG once you've got your seniority number. Back in the mid 1980's we had a guy at AA do that. In UPT the IP's asked "what are you going to do once you go back to your unit?" "Start my training with AA." "You going to apply there? That's your first choice?" "No. I have a job/seniority number there. I'm on MIL leave for training."
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post