Packrat, I'm curious about this statement. Will you please elaborate? Thanks! - YODA

 

Certainly. Lets imagine the average Joe goes into the military at 23-24. If he only serves 20 years he's coming out at 43-44. That gives him 22-23 years of airline service IF he gets hired right out of the box.

In the mean time, he's got guys getting on with his major in their late 20's early 30's. Those guys will have 10 to 15 years seniority over him when he finally does get hired.

Who's going to be sitting in the LIMITED number of widebody seats as Mr. Military gets to the end of his career? You got it, the young guys who went the civilian route.

The best a military retiree can hope for is a narrow body Captain seat with little or no commuting. Not that there's anything wrong with that, its just a full career miltary retiree is fooling himself if he imagines he'll ever see the left seat of a 777.

 

FedEx has a higher number of wide bodies as percentage than most airlines, and we have some 20 year AD guys who are WB captains. Most, however, were hired in the 96-98 boom. Most of our guys hired after 2000 cannot hold a WB, although I know a couple 01 hires who managed to get the MD11 for a spell. However, most were excessed back off it last year. There ARE a lot of NB captains however. The FDA in Hong Kong may have a few captains that made 20 on AD, but again...most of those were hired in mid 90s. Perhaps the surge at the legacies right now is large enough to offer similar opportunities for those late to the party, but I don't know for sure.

Packrat's point is interesting, and I realize most of the O-5/O-6s I met in the left seat of the -11 the last few years got there via an ANG/Reserves. They got out at the 7-12 year point and then continued.

All that aside, 20 years is a great life and choice for many. I bailed, and I was very happy with my decision, but my variables (family, location, job offer, and side business) worked well for me. I just finished my WB type rating last week and will be going to the line Jun-July after IOE. Hire to WB captain time was 13 years, six months. I would say that for guys hired at my company now that number might hold, but it won't drop much and might even get longer. That said, a NB captain spot after a full career and an AD retirement check isn't a bad life either, and I know many senior WB FOs and Junior NB captains who are in this niche.

Me--I knew myself, and knew I wanted to fly fighters, and big jets around the globe one day. I got very, very lucky and have done both. I have no regrets, but none of my retired bubbas complain much either...its all about where you feel most comfortable.

 

Man, between a military retirement and being a narrow body CA or a senior widebody FO it sounds like that pauper's existence will suck

The agony, the horror........

 

Not sure how many military guys, who have been deployed numerous times since 2001, are going to "complain" about narrow body Captain and little commuting. Nor whether he "missed" the chance at 777 Captain. These are retired "Captains" on F-16s, C-17's, etc etc, with military retirement and medical benefits package.

Doubt they are losing sleep over this or groveling to be left seat of a triple 7 or "widebody seats"

the bigger the plane, the bigger the suitcase

 

Before the latest hiring spree 75-80% of the Big 3's pilots will be retired in 15 yrs(2030). Add in five more years (2035) and it probably hits 90%. The retirees that got hired early in the wave will probably be large w/b CA's when the retire.

Spoke with a 44 yr old late 2014 newhire last week. His seniority number projects about 3 years as a 330/350/777/787 CA (junior base).

 

Ask any UAL pilot how 20 year new hire "projections" work out.

 

I'd have to look at the projection again, but early last year UAL started losing on average 1 pilot EVERY 18 HOURS. So yeah, ask them.

 

I meant ask the guys hired in the '90s who were going to be 737 Captains in two years and ended up with two furloughs. Ask those guys how valid their projections were.

Smart airline pilots never project more than the next couple bid periods.

 

Substitute ANY airline for UAL.

But yes,, I'd agree with your point.

Manage expectations accordingly.