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How are you guarding against inflation?

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Old 05-04-2021, 04:54 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Only two rational investment strategies:
1. For optimists - a broadly diversified stock portfolio or - better yet - a low expense index 500 mutual fund.
2. For pessimists - guns, ammo, and freeze dried food.

My investment manager consistently beats the indexes (500 and others) by 3-5%. Pretty rare, top couple of percent of money managers.
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Old 05-04-2021, 06:22 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
My investment manager consistently beats the indexes (500 and others) by 3-5%. Pretty rare, top couple of percent of money managers.
Yep. And he/she will do that until he/she doesn’t for a mere 1-2% off the top. And by actively trading he/she will realize capital gains that would have compounded tax free if you’d just let them ride.

oh, you CAN consistently beat the market - with insider trading - and then write a book about your experiences like Martha Stewart did. And probably disqualify you from guns and ammo investing...
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Old 05-04-2021, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Yep. And he/she will do that until he/she doesn’t for a mere 1-2% off the top. And by actively trading he/she will realize capital gains that would have compounded tax free if you’d just let them ride.

oh, you CAN consistently beat the market - with insider trading - and then write a book about your experiences like Martha Stewart did. And probably disqualify you from guns and ammo investing...
Nope. You are mistaken.

The fee is for in depth analysis and positioning. It is not based on insider trading. Months go by with no trades. Everything is internal. I only have to pay taxes when I take cash out. They do not churn investments. (It is a 401K converted to an IRA.) The returns are after expenses.

They only make money when I make money. Their fee is a certain percentage of my assets. They make no income from buying or selling. They do not sell commission investment vehicles. They don’t even have their hands on my money. They direct my custodian (unaffiliated major brokerage house) to buy and sell. This is a major investment manager. They manage hundreds of billions of investments. Returns are better than market averages by a few percent, rather consistently over decades of existence.

I trust this dispels a lot of your misconceptions.
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Old 05-04-2021, 08:06 PM
  #14  
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You could always go full bear and throw it all on $SQQQ like my dum ass friend. I hedged about 10% on SQQQ this morning when Janet Yellen open her big fat mouth. Luckily I’m in an investment group chat so I was alerted in time before the market initially pulled back.
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Old 05-04-2021, 08:15 PM
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One thing I like about my investment management firm is lower down side volatility. They have higher returns on the upside. They have lower losses on the downside. That is hard for most firms to do, consistently. They do it.
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Old 05-04-2021, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
One thing I like about my investment management firm is lower down side volatility. They have higher returns on the upside. They have lower losses on the downside. That is hard for most firms to do, consistently. They do it.
What’s exactly in the fund to mitigate downside? Personally being younger I don’t care about downside volatility as I’m long. My favorite pick so far has been ETF $PBW. I don’t think I’ll ever stop adding to it.
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Old 05-04-2021, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by LAXtoDEN View Post
What’s exactly in the fund to mitigate downside? Personally being younger I don’t care about downside volatility as I’m long. My favorite pick so far has been ETF $PBW. I don’t think I’ll ever stop adding to it.
They have over a thousand specialists looking at markets, industries, companies, counties, economies. They are able to understand when a stock downturn has started as the economy heads into a recession. They do not catch the very beginning, they don’t have to. If they can avoid taking a big hit in half to two thirds of a downturn, and then switch back into value stocks as they come out of the recession, they can avoid much of the one third to one half lose of your portfolio value. And then, the beginning of the bull market has some big returns. What do they do? Much of it is to move your cyclical stocks into cash, then prepare to move into value stocks near the bottom.

How they predict this and take action is proprietary research which is explained to their clients, but not divulged in a public forum. It is good, solid level headed technical research. It is not smoke and mirrors.

Do not confuse recessions with sharp sudden corrections down and sharp recoveries back up. They are not recessions. They have their portfolios ride those out. Usually full recovery is in a couple of months. They do not make big portfolio moves. Too many people sell low and buy high as a result of their sharp emotional responses in a correction. They do damage to their portfolio due to their emotions.

My portfolio contains about 60 stocks.

If you want to know my portfolio manager, I will be happy to share it on a PM. I get nothing out of it. No referral, no nothing.

Last edited by TransWorld; 05-04-2021 at 10:47 PM.
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Old 12-27-2021, 04:51 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Maybe inflation is the incarnation of the long-awaited correction.

I'll deal with it the way I usually do... long-term equity positions (bonds are no better than cash right now). Somewhat hedged with investment real-estate.
large revenue producing real estate is my choice, have some profits to move that is where they are going. 300 plus acres is the way to go
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Old 12-28-2021, 07:33 AM
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Originally Posted by ockham View Post
large revenue producing real estate is my choice, have some profits to move that is where they are going. 300 plus acres is the way to go
Careful with commercial office facilities... might be a correction after it all settles out vis a vis permanent telework.
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Old 12-28-2021, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Careful with commercial office facilities... might be a correction after it all settles out vis a vis permanent telework.

Looking at Farmland, large enough to rent fields and have a bugout place after the liberals finish destroying our country
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