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Old 10-08-2023 | 06:56 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
That's pretty conservative. Conventional wisdom is 4% first year, and then adjust for inflation in subsequent years.
Yep. But when you are a pessimist the vast majority of your surprises are happy ones…
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Old 10-11-2023 | 01:27 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
The one question I’ve never been able to get answered is “what’s my number?” What number am I shooting for in my retirement accounts so that I know when I can retire?
That question is always answered with more questions. More is better of course, but I’d sure like to know when I can pull the chute and be done.

You’re asking pilots on an anonymous message board?

GET PROFESSIONAL HELP. I mean the financial planning type. Find a CFP and pay them. Best money you’ll ever spend.

If you have a retirement savings account at Schwab, they have a pretty inexpensive financial coaching program. I’d guess the other big houses have something similar.

If your too cheap for that, there are lot’s of books available. Try Jane Bryant Quinn.
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Old 10-11-2023 | 09:07 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by hopp
You’re asking pilots on an anonymous message board?

GET PROFESSIONAL HELP. I mean the financial planning type. Find a CFP and pay them. Best money you’ll ever spend.

If you have a retirement savings account at Schwab, they have a pretty inexpensive financial coaching program. I’d guess the other big houses have something similar.

If your too cheap for that, there are lot’s of books available. Try Jane Bryant Quinn.
Yes you need that just to avoid gross strategic errors, or getting raped by the tax man.

But it's not going to change the basic math. Assuming reasonably conservative performance you need $1M to provide $40k/year income.

How much income do you want in retirement? How much income do you *need*? That's your window.

You can always adjust risk to suit your personal taste, that will change either your savings plan, your retirement QOL, or both.

If you want to have your cake and eat it too, you'll need a specialty investment advisor, with a name like Bernard or Jordan.
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Old 10-11-2023 | 09:26 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
Pretty much zero chance we hit 5 million by the time I retire. Too many furloughs, too little income during the lost decade. I’ll probably clear 3 barring some other black swan event.
Your house can count towards that, if you don't need to leave it to heirs and you expect to downsize later.
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Old 10-21-2023 | 10:55 AM
  #15  
In a land of unicorns
 
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Yes you need that just to avoid gross strategic errors, or getting raped by the tax man.

But it's not going to change the basic math. Assuming reasonably conservative performance you need $1M to provide $40k/year income.

How much income do you want in retirement? How much income do you *need*? That's your window.

You can always adjust risk to suit your personal taste, that will change either your savings plan, your retirement QOL, or both.

If you want to have your cake and eat it too, you'll need a specialty investment advisor, with a name like Bernard or Jordan.
That's an extremely conservative number, less than half of historic S&P500 return. The Trinity Study (where the 4% comes from) has been widely criticized and they did use a somewhat odd portfolio as their data set.
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Old 10-21-2023 | 03:51 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by dera
That's an extremely conservative number, less than half of historic S&P500 return. The Trinity Study (where the 4% comes from) has been widely criticized and they did use a somewhat odd portfolio as their data set.
The formula is based on depleting principle, not just living on the growth and dividends. So the investment returns shrink over time with the principle. Idea being, it's a minimum number on which you can reasonably rely based on history. It doesn't leave much for heirs if you live a long life, and you might even run out (although presumably you'd taper your spending along the way if you were headed there).

If you want to live off returns and dividends, it will likely require a much larger principle nest egg. You are of course free to save more, if you have the means.

That said, nobody has a crystal ball, so there's always a variety of risks not accounted for in any such plan. It's a tradeoff between:
1) Cost (money you could be spending on boats, hookers and blow in your youth) vs
2) Personal risk tolerance.
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Old 10-22-2023 | 07:18 AM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by dera
That's an extremely conservative number, less than half of historic S&P500 return. The Trinity Study (where the 4% comes from) has been widely criticized and they did use a somewhat odd portfolio as their data set.
Philanthropic organizations, such as universities, charities, etc. use the 4% rule. The additional return from the S&P 500 is added to the principle to keep the buying power where it is. inflation is a profound thing over the years.
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Old 12-20-2024 | 02:12 AM
  #18  
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I did a quick calculation and the return is around 4%. This doesn't take into account inflation, the market on the other hand (SnP 500) seems to have given back 10% years in the same period. Does real estate investing really make sense? I have not an idea on rental returns and what it could add to the return per year.
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