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Old 05-04-2020 | 07:32 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by MWilliams
The only thing that gets us back into hiring in 2020/2021 is when/if the pilot to airplane ratio drops below 5. If we do reach that number expect hiring to remain equal to attrition. For hiring to outpace attrition we will need to grow the fleet.

This whole thing has probably stopped all attrition for the foreseeable future. It has also stopped expansion plans for the foreseeable future. Those frivolous upgrades NJA was doing will stop if they haven't already, and upgrades will go back up to 15+ years. The airlines are getting hammered with some of the large legacies planning significant, and life altering changes. Nobody is going to be leaving NJA for an airline anytime soon. NJA still isn't out of the furlough woods yet although I think you guys are better positioned than the airlines at the moment. If anyone had a problem with the NJA stagnation before, buckle up because its going to be worse than ever before.
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Old 05-04-2020 | 08:07 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by MinRest
This whole thing has probably stopped all attrition for the foreseeable future. It has also stopped expansion plans for the foreseeable future. Those frivolous upgrades NJA was doing will stop if they haven't already, and upgrades will go back up to 15+ years. The airlines are getting hammered with some of the large legacies planning significant, and life altering changes. Nobody is going to be leaving NJA for an airline anytime soon. NJA still isn't out of the furlough woods yet although I think you guys are better positioned than the airlines at the moment. If anyone had a problem with the NJA stagnation before, buckle up because its going to be worse than ever before.
We will find out about the April attrition numbers on or about the 15th of May. As for April attrition numbers, there were 6 and all senior captains with most coming to the end of their MLOA. (Still more to come) I'm not painting a ray of sunshine or a shadow of doubt, NetJets will only hire in the near term due to attrition and if that happens it will be around 5 per month.
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Old 05-04-2020 | 08:23 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by MWilliams
We will find out about the April attrition numbers on or about the 15th of May. As for April attrition numbers, there were 6 and all senior captains with most coming to the end of their MLOA. (Still more to come) I'm not painting a ray of sunshine or a shadow of doubt, NetJets will only hire in the near term due to attrition and if that happens it will be around 5 per month.
That hiring is ONLY if fleet numbers stay the same. If NJA reduces aircraft then all bets are off. If they start returning Cessnas back to Textron earlier than previously predicted, that’s going to create an excess of pilots.
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Old 05-04-2020 | 09:06 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by MinRest
That hiring is ONLY if fleet numbers stay the same. If NJA reduces aircraft then all bets are off. If they start returning Cessnas back to Textron earlier than previously predicted, that’s going to create an excess of pilots.
While true, that has not happened yet. The delivery of Longitudes continues, however it is at a lower rate than originally planned.
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Old 05-04-2020 | 11:56 PM
  #35  
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Not without risk in this whacky year, but I would think NJA is about as stable as a aviation company could be in these unpleasant times.

So what if Buffett doesn’t mention NJA? Consider his silence a Godsend, unless you want NJA sold like he did the airlines.

I left NJA a while ago...concerning current events...and with hindsight 20/20...I...uhhh...

Oh well.

No upgrades? No hiring? Count your blessings.
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Old 05-05-2020 | 03:57 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Guard
He has $137 Billion in Cash on hand, hope he gives a little to some of his companies.

Uncle Warren doesn't "give" money to companies. He is a businessman--he loans money. During the last downturn he loaned $1.9 billion to NJs...


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Old 05-05-2020 | 04:12 PM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Chris99
Uncle Warren doesn't "give" money to companies. He is a businessman--he loans money. During the last downturn he loaned $1.9 billion to NJs...


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With interest and a yearly fee for access to loan money. The terms for Goldman Sachs and GE were way beyond- loan sharks might have learned something new from those. It will be interesting to see who comes begging next and seeing how they get legally raped.

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Old 05-05-2020 | 05:25 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Chris99
Uncle Warren doesn't "give" money to companies. He is a businessman--he loans money. During the last downturn he loaned $1.9 billion to NJs...


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Given his recent decisions on aviation companies, I would be slightly concerned if I worked for NJA. Not to say he will sell or dump NJA, but his willingness to help NJA this time might not be there. Luckily it appears that as of now, that help isn’t needed yet.
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Old 05-05-2020 | 07:30 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by MinRest
Given his recent decisions on aviation companies, I would be slightly concerned if I worked for NJA. Not to say he will sell or dump NJA, but his willingness to help NJA this time might not be there. Luckily it appears that as of now, that help isn’t needed yet.

your “concern “is noted, : ) be well
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Old 05-06-2020 | 06:02 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by Chris99
Uncle Warren doesn't "give" money to companies. He is a businessman--he loans money. During the last downturn he loaned $1.9 billion to NJs...


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That is wrong. About 1.3 billion was aircraft write offs. Warren doesn't loan you money. He allows you to use Berkshire Hathaway as a guarantee on your loans for a fee so you can go out and borrow money. It was never publicly disclosed how much we borrowed. You could have read a lot about it on the Alice Schroeder blog site but she took it down. Another interesting fact is prior to the meltdown, we never had to pay a fee. Alice was surprised we were given this status. After Sokol came on board, he started paying that fee.

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