Uh more like the opposite.

All depends on the contracts and how quickly the non-wo regionals can enforce them.

if a major quits paying, even in direct violation of a contract, it may still be the gojet bankruptcy judge fining them 4 years later

No. Just no. Sorry only reasoned I looked at PSA forum was curious for a friends kid who might be going. See 2008 example. Mesa, Republic all kept block hours. PSA and PDT then lost many block hours. Those fee for departure contracts always have and will have priority as long as FFD is around. Please don’t spread false information. Wholly owns have no block hour requirements and thus they are cut first to honor FFD carriers requirements.

I’m not spreading false information.

1) ffd contracts may well have force majeure clauses. Do we have proof otherwise?

2) different industry situation than 2008. AA has more reason to protect the WO’s long term

3) this is a big shock and majors have been known to play rough. If a major could force a regional into Chapter 7 by shutting off payments, it might be a rational response. Skywest is too big and diversified for that, but for example Air Wisconsin is not. United could just walk away and poof, no more Air Wisconsin. A contract is only valuable if there’s someone with a means to enforce it

You guys seem to think that reneging on a contract or declaring bankruptcy is quick, easy, or cheap. If one of the mainline carriers reneges on a contract, every contract for regional feed, along with contracts with who knows how many other kinds of vendors for the next 20 years will be much more expensive, because no other company will trust them not to do it again.

Cutting what you can cut legally is a much easier, cheaper, and safer way to cut costs.

Agreed it would be a bad choice. Sometimes your choices are bad and worse

the big issue is force majeure language and whether there’s room for interpretation that would let a major renege with plausible deniability

Again FFD flying won’t be reduced first. Period. That’s the only thing I’m saying you are absolutely incorrect about.

To claim there’s clauses that don’t exist etc is false. AA isn’t filing bankruptcy. If that happened it’s all open but again that’d be a long ways out as of today. Reduced wholly own block hours isn’t. Understand?

I don’t think I said that. (Mostly because I agree with you, the WO’s will be reduced first.)

What I am saying is that in extremis, the majors likely have tactically viable options if the choice is to throw themselves or someone else under the bus.

It certainly wouldn't be the first time PSA started furloughing right after hiring. I remember getting ready to fly out for an interview there and then hearing about furloughs as I was prepping. This was back in the bad old days of 2008.

I have an interview next week.

Maybe I could learn how to be a truck driver...