Flow backs
 

What would it take for the union and PSA pilots to accept a limited number of potential furloughed AA former PSA flowbacks? All flow backs would be DECs of course and get their base of choice on the bottom of the captain list. Only former PSA flows could come back and the total number would have to get capped around 100-120. The PSA guys hired off the street at AA would not be eligible for flow back. Maybe you guys would accept in exchange for double flow when AA starts to hire again. All hypothetical considering AA probably won’t furlough. Understand it would be a 3-way Deal between PSA, PSA-ALPA and AA. Double flow sounds nice right?

PSA CA says Hell yes.
PSA FO says No way.

... with exceptions of course FO’s were running from forced UPG anyway. Lots of great stand-up guys went over via flow. It’d be good for PSA

How about no. You got hired at American. These guys got hired at PSA. Just asking to displace PSA guys to save you is selfishness, period.

Where is this coming from? And why is it even being discussed when every company is currently in survival mode anyway?

This is called the bargaining phase in the stages of grief

The idea that PSA won’t be furloughing isn’t very likely. I don’t see how you’d ever sell flow-lough

Hows about all of us lay off the internet for a while...

I have mixed opinions about this, but even if it were to happen... wouldn’t the flowbacks have to requal and go through initial training again? Even if that process started tomorrow it would be almost 3 months until they finished training and at that point I think we would be on the upswing and starting to hire again. That or we would only need them for 1-2 more months. Which, would make the whole flow back idea absolutely pointless.

^^^ this/

OP; you made the jump and now you take your chances. Want to flow back? Resign your current gig and become a new street hire again. Bottom of the list.

Filler........

What about those who got hired off the street, should we we also afford them opportunity to returned too. You say no to that, I say no to flow back.

I don’t think it’s reasonable for you to put want to put other pilots on the street for your benefit of having a fall back plan of flowing back.

its a tough time right now and everyone is worried about their jobs right now.

You could throw in a no displacement/downgrade clause for good measure. Would you still be against that? And you’re still getting double flow. The next enhancement after double flow is a mainline seniority number, but flow backs would need better seniority than bottom of the captain list for that to happen.

Negotiating on APC is bad form, dude.

And people call the younger generations entitled. Unbelievable.

Personally I’m for it if the flow-backs come in as “DECs” on the bottom of the list. And in exchange we lock in our current pay structure, SAP, guarantees not to furlough, and get increased flows at 1% /month once hiring resumes.

If we can lock those provisions in I see it as a win for everyone. Don’t forget, these APA pilots are your union brethren albeit not from ALPA. And don’t forget that if you were in their shoes you would also be looking for a soft place to land for a few years. We need to be looking at ways to help each other.

Also worth reminding everyone, locking in the above contractual provisions would be huge in the current environment. We have no leverage. If this turns into an extended downturn then fully expect intense downward pressure on wages and contracts. Keep that in mind.

Don’t negotiate in public.


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As someone who is very familiar with the process I can assure you... No one from management is pulling up APC going, “see... SEE! This is what they want! This is what I’ve been saying!”

It’s more like the 2 dudes from Jurassic Park. “See... Nobody cares”

The management folks are going “OHMOGODOHMIGODOHMIGODWERESOOOOOOOOOSCREWED!!!” Right now and totally not thinking about this.

Flow backs
 

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That’s great and all Chris with wanting to help each other out. I’ve agreed with ya on many posts but this where you and I disagree. What about the junior guys here? You want to push those guys out who chances are do not have a soft landing spot to provide soft landing for guys who made it to the big league. Because that’s what will happen with flow backs. You are just rolling the ball down the hill. That doesn’t seem right.

That’s not helping anyone out except for a select few.

I’d be thinking the management folks are going “OHMOGODOHMIGODOHMIGODWERESOOOOOOOOOSCREWED!!!” Right now and totally not thinking about this.

They are glum.

PSA flows that are currently in training (haven't completed IOE) are technically allowed to flow back per the current LOA.

don’t they have to washout?

Yes, although that is presumably within the control of people who wish to do so

I wouldn’t really call that flowing back. It is like deflowing or unflowimg or annulling your flow.

that’s what I thought. There was an annulment window up to passing the LOE. It’s not a flow back. More accurately you haven’t left until the LOE at AA has been completed.

If the recent PSA flows that have not finished OE were smart, they would take the unpaid one year leave and go back to PSA for a year while keeping their AA number. If they get furloughed within a year, they can hang tight at PSA at the top of the seniority list.

I doubt AA will furlough pilots unless they file chapter 11. How likely is chapter 11? That's anyones best guess and depends on travel demand coming back with the economy. If American is in Chapter 11, so is PSA.

I’d love to visit the planet you live on. There simply won’t be the same amount of demand for business travel (or leisure travel) on the backside of this. And our economy is going to be in a full-on recession. I’d say that demand eventually bounces back to about 75% of current by summer 2021. The likelihood of furloughs at the legacies is very high in my opinion. They’ll all likely survive this, albeit smaller. Meanwhile the ULCCs and Southwest are chomping at the bit to cut wide swathes of market share away from the legacies as opportunities present themselves. Some are already making strategic moves to do so (look at what’s happening in PHX).

Opportunities for growth and seniority movement / general hiring will be at the ULCCs, cargo, and Southwest. There will be mergers and acquisitions as a result of this. Legacies I would expect to be stagnant for the foreseeable future.

The ULCC's don't stand a chance at survival. The leisure travel will likely come back at the 75% level, but the business travel will be back at 100% as soon as this starts to subside. I can't imagine any legitimate business travel happens on a ULCC. AA's billion dollar routes to LHR will be back and running in a couple months.

If this is a short lived issue and is over mid-summer, then this will be a V shaped recession. The stimulus package ensures that all Americans still have money so that we can come out of this quickly. In addition to the $1200, the unemployment benefits are better than they have ever been. People will have lots of money and want to spend it. It will be a lot like post WWII.

If this drags on until next winter, then it will be a very different story. But it shouldn't be that long.

I am hearing rumblings that AA Cargo (scheduled cargo only flights) may well be back as a result of this. This would be a huge boost for AA.

AA had a serious issue on the horizon with how to train enough pilots. In addition to the 1400 pilots it needed to hire and train, they also needed to retrain all of the replacements for the retirees and for the fleets that were scheduled to be parked.

Now, the sims will no longer have any new hires, but rather be filled with everyone that is moving off of the retired fleets and into the seats that were vacated by the retirees. AA really tipped their hand with this early retirement buy out, showing that they are getting ready to use every bit of available sim time that is going to be available these next few months to get ahead on training.

This will be over in a few months, the government will have paid the bills for all of the revenue that was lost, and AA will have solved their training issue. The old aircraft will all be gone, and AA will have the newest fleet that will be paid off in a couple of years and in better shape than before the Chinese virus hit the US.

Back to the flowback topic, it would be nice to have. As someone in the bottom 15%, I’d sleep better if I had a rj Capt spot to go to. AA gives y’all flow spots to keep our regionals attractive, they should take care of us if we get furloughed as well, maybe it will be in the next contract or we can get an loa for it, but I’m sure it will cost us something.


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Let’s revisit this thread in June. We’ll have a good idea by then how future bookings are looking.

And btw DoNoHarm, you literally have your entire analysis completely backwards from what airline CEOs and industry experts have said they expect. This will hurt business travelers much more than leisure travelers. And business travelers are the legacies bread n butter.

History has proven time and time again that when companies fear a recession they cut expenses. One of the first things cut is travel. Business travel will drop dramatically (some never to return as digital conferences etc become a new norm) and the legacy airlines that have staked out a large portion of their revenue stream from it will suffer immensely. They need to figure out how to pivot and do it quick.

If you think furloughs will happen at AA, then you need to assume a trip through bankruptcy will happen too. That kind of downing requires a bankruptcy to shed aircraft leases and restructure bad debt. That means PSA is in bankruptcy also and the CBA at PSA would get gutted along with any associated LOAs letters which includes the flow side letter.

AA is already 10-15% smaller pilot wise in 2021 when the demand comes back with the early outs and hiring freeze. No hiring through all of 2021 will put the pilot group closer to 15-20% smaller starting in 2022. Furloughs, would only happen if AA projects those pilots will be gone longer than a year, otherwise the furlough will cost more money than retaining the additional staffing. 75% of current size for summer of 2021 might not require AA to furlough pilots. If so, probably 500-1000 max. 1200 pilots retire from AA in the next 12 months including the early outs.

The flow program has nothing to do with staffing mainline. It’s there to keep warm bodies in the small jet sub-B scale RJ fleet. AA can fill all new hire classes with off the street new hires any day of the week. If they allow flow backs it hurts their ability to staff the regional which is the primary purpose of flow in the first place.

There is no benefit to management to push mainline back to the regional level. There is also no benefit to the regional pilot group.

Don’t see it ever becoming a reality.

I do believe that is a real possibility.

A. regional pilots don't have a lot of places to go right now if hiring stops everywhere and regionals don't need to hire for attrition.

B. The American regional footprint is getting smaller due to scope. Downsizing will happen at certain eagle carrier regionals. Scope allows for an RJ fleet 75 percent the number of mainline narrow bodies. American just retired the 75s and 190s. That's 40 RJs that need to go away, 19 of which with 76 seats. More mainline downsizing next year, means more RJs going away.

C. AA pilots ain't giving up scope, if anything they're taking some back.

Then why would WO give up their jobs so some mainline guy "lands soft" for a flow that is totally useless during times like these?

PSA doesn't even communicate with the other two Eagle WO's. I think your chances at a flowback deal are around 0%.