You are conveniently forgetting that the number of airplanes on property is not what determines your time until upgrade.

As someone just posted, the next class will have seniority numbers around 1100. BEST case scenario is ~1650 total pilots. I won't talk about the worst case, since only ponies and rainbows are allowed here.

You are (almost) correct, 1650 ACTIVE pilots will be needed. The current seniority list has about 800 ACTIVE pilots on it. The rest are examiners/APD's, instructors, management, and other non-active people. With attrition of ~20 per month, people hired through the summer will still be well under the 18-24 month upgrade time.

CLT Guy makes a good point, and your polemic leaves out some other facts.

Hiring about 70 a month, attrition at about 20, net gain of 50 pilots a month while a given new hire moves up 20 places. I spoke to someone today who interviewed yesterday and was offered a 4/13 class, so about two months from interview to class date.

If the most junior guy on 2/16/15 is 1,100, using the above assumptions the most junior person on 4/13/15 is going to be 1,300.

A year after that (4/2016) he'll be very near to 1,000 while the total pilot group will be topping out around 1,900.

A year after that (4/2017) he'll be in the 750 range while the pilot group is still around 1,900 (still 16 more options out there though).

If said pilot has no 121 time when he's hired, and upgrades in 4/2017 he'll be a line holding Captain when he upgrades. If said pilot has 121 time he'll upgrade a lot sooner.

A pilot starting class in 4/2016 (say #1,900) is likely to see a lot higher attrition, especially as the Legacies, Majors, Cargo, and LCCs start to ramp up hiring. Since this group has roughly a thousand pilots now and 20 a month, it's reasonable to assume that someone hired as #1,900 could see his number go up 40 a month. If that's the case, and even assuming some slowing of his seniority gain as his seniority increases, he being 1,200-1,300 or so after a year is very possible, and well within upgrade territory a year after that is likely.

You guys are conveniently leaving out that the 50 seat aircraft will be parked. There's 35 of them or roughly -350 needed. Que the unicorn and rainbow responses.




unicorns

On what authority do you have it that the 200's will be parked in the next several years? Name a source.

unicorns and rainbows

That's some solid stuff right there.

It's funny, you accuse PSA guys of just trying to hype the place so we'll all have FOs as we upgrade, while at the same time doing the very same thing with regard to Compass.

I've got no hard numbers for Compass, and more power to you to get all the FOs there that you need. If someone from the West Coast asks if they should come to work for PSA, I tell them they could, but their QOL would be higher with a West Coast base and they should consider Compass.

You on the other hand like to tell guys from South Florida that Yes! Come to Compass because who cares about commuting and Me! The Compass pilot knows all kinds of things about PSA that no one who works there knows about!

Get real man.

Wrong, in fact all I was saying was Compass doesn't have any 50 seat aircraft to park and if pilots don't get on in the next few months, they will miss most of the seniority growth. Commuting to Compass from Florida would suck, but that doesn't take away from the fact pilots have already missed the boat at PSA since they will be parking all of their 50 seat aircraft.

Once again, please let us know more about the plan to park the 50 seat airplanes. Give factual details and cite sources. If you do not have these, then state that it is your opinion that this will happen.

I agree that the 50 seat RJ's will eventually be parked, but it won't be anytime soon. They are just too cheap to fly right now, and they are not a scope issue. There is no reason to park them.