But even if Republic and Skywest are not wholly owned, aren't they also too big in the regional network to just fail? Wouldn't that send shockwaves in the whole feeder industry for the major airlines? They still have a very very large pool of qualified pilots that they would have to account for. I guess I'm not sure how even becoming a leasing company for the majors would play out. It just seems like these non wholly owned pilot groups outnumber by vast numbers the wholly owned pilot groups.

You guys all act like this is a bad thing.

The end of seniority is the only thing that will save the career in the long term.

Would would the regionals be leasing airplanes to majors when the majors can borrow cash from the banks cheaper than the regionals can ?

I will further theorize that Major airlines will drain the pilot forces of the non wholly owned carriers. Without flow agreements or wholly owned affiliations, there is nothing to stop major airlines from draining these airlines of their pilots till they completely fail. Wholly owneds are not going to be drained as quickly as the parent airline will not want to drain their own owned feeds. That's why the flow is a tool for management and not pilots.

In conclusion, its a good time to be a pilot at a non wholly owned carrier, as you will likely be among the first to be scooped up by major airlines. However, on the flip side, it is not a good time to be a non-wholly owned new hire. When the music stops, your only chair might be to get hired at a wholly owned regional and wait your turn in the flow line. Of course there are LCC's etc. but that is outside the scope of what I am saying.

It is hard to understand from an economic perspective how two giants like Republic and Skywest would fail when they have more airplanes on property and more pilots. Combined they do more flying for United/American/Delta. It's true that all the regionals are losing a tremendous amount of pilots and their contracts are not attractive enough to hire as many pilots as they would, but the wholly owned airlines are also having a hard time hiring pilots. I'm not siding at all with Republic or Skywest but I don't think they would fail or disappear from the regional airline market.

Ok now I see your point. It could happen that way.

Another way to look at it is like this. Pretend you are the ceo of one of the big three. You need to hire pilots in the amount that exceeds what's even available at the regionals. Which airlines make the most sense to drain first? Am airline that you own or an airline that someone else owns.

Because the regionals have the orders already in place with spots in the production order reserved. The majors can easily secure financing for the planes, but they'll have wait years for them to show up on property. Skywest has orders for 400 175s and 175E2s. That's several years worth of production to get through before UAL, AA or Delta could get theirs. Hence, Skywest could lease the planes they have ordered or simply sell their spots in line for a profit.

Yeah, it will be very interesting to see where the regionals will be in 3-5 years. The numbers are just staggering any way you dice it.

Nice username and avatar. I love CYE


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