What would be a good projected upgrade time for a new hire with no 121 time coming in after all these street captains are hired?

Follow the logic.
 

Let's follow the logic that RyanP is trying to drop on us. He'd have us believe that a good number of envoy new hires that are failing their oral or type ride are simply moving on to PSA or Mesa, ........the very next day, (which of course is preposterous, given the fact that it'll take weeks from the date of application to the date of interview, alone).

What that tells me is that ENVOY is an airline with low hiring standards! Following Ryan's logic, envoy is really scraping the bottom of the barrel and hiring pilots who are not able to pass their initial 121 training.

Of course, the truth of the matter is that envoy probably IS scraping the bottom of the barrel in order to find new first officer candidates,....... just like every regional airline. The big difference right now is that PSA is offering immediate captain opportunities to experienced first officers at other airlines who clearly have no hope of upgrading at their respective airlines in the foreseeable future.

Well to date there are only 7 street captains that I am aware of.

It's going to take you probably 1.5 years to acquire the needed 121 time as FO before upgrading.

There are 70 more airplanes coming over the next two years, there will be plenty of opportunity to be a captain very quickly here at PSA. If you are looking to do some math, figure at a minimum each airplane is staffed with 10.5 pilots (or more if you include instructors etc.. on the seniority list).

Well, given the fact that PSA is only 1/2 way to their stated expectation of having 150 airplanes by the end of 2017, I'd guess that the upgrade time for today's new (to 121) hire is probably in the 2 - 3 year range.

So what is the upgrade time for that same new (to 121) hire at envoy, ASA, SkyWest, Mesa, RAH, or others?

2-3 years upgrade.
25 year flow

ALPA has failed miserably and its time we end their service.

I wouldn't worry about flow, its meaningless. In five years you won't even care.

Great, Thank you for the responses.

Wouldn't shock me if it were not that much longer at some other places in the not too distant future once major hiring really picks up.

I think at that point you'd see a problem in attracting new hires as there already is. Imagine xjt, Skywest, republic, envoy, PSA and all other regional carriers FO's upgrading in 2-3 years from now. It'll be hard for them to attract new hires to replace those positions. It'll be like this at every regional except for the ones that are dying off and shrinking.


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I hate to say it, but I think wholly owned carriers may unfortunately become a new rung on the career ladder in the future. I only say that because I feel that non-wholly owned regional airlines will be the first to fail because without the support of the parent airline, its hard for them to compete for new hire pilots. Don't get me wrong, I think one way or the other they will all eventually fail, but wholly owneds may be the last to fail.

Of course non wholly owneds such as Republic or Skywest could turn in to competition or some form of aircraft leasing company. Someone on this forum proposed an interesting theory where mainline pilots could fly smaller aircraft owned by third parties.