The best indicator will be when the mainline carriers start flying into the smaller markets with bigger jets and less frequency because the regionals can't handle it anymore.

When? Delta has already started doing that.

Pilot shortage
 

I was at a layover hotel in DFW two weeks ago. Had breakfast with a pilot recruiter/interview for AA. He told me AA needs to hire 5,400 pilots over the next 3 years.

I believe the (good) regional airlines are smart and will continue to raise pay as necessary to fill seats with competent pilots. The large amount of movement with retirements and (fingers crossed) growth at the majors should help keep QOL decent across the board (reserve will be a 4-5 month affair not 1-2 years; all airlines will be hiring allowing candidates to not need to commute, etc). This increase in salary should serve to both recruit kids into the aviation schools out of high school and have private or prospective pilots in other careers think about making the leap to become an airline pilot. A lot easier to invest a large amount in education and training or leave one's day job when first year earnings potential is $60k with an expectation of earning $100k+ in 3-4 years... a very reasonable salary for the amount of responsibility a regional pilot has.

My hope is that new hire and retention bonuses will be rolled into hourly pay. There was much talk of this at Endeavor and Trans States however I haven't read much lately. Is this still an effort on behalf of the unions or companies? It seems some companies (e.g. Republic, Trans States) are making very insincere statements on earnings potential, rolling things like per diem, health/life insurance into the first year pay rates.

Anybody look at the threads of pilots coming back from other careers; second career pilots coming in; the military (all branches) hiring and will throwing off thousands of pilots over the 2020-2025 time frame. There was a time you had to be ex-mil or lots of civilian time in corporate jets ( there were no RJs) and under 32 to get hired. That when there were scarcities of pilots; now, just wait, there'll be plenty to fill the seats. Yes, lots of RJ flying will go away for less frequent B717, C-Series, etc flying to reduce the number of required pilots, marginally profitable routes will be dropped or reduce service. This has all been seen before. I'd bet the main lines could increase the cruise speed and save a couple hundred pilot positions. It was the opposite during the fuel crunches, slowing to LRC saved some furloughs.

GF

No way they can hire and train that many in 3 years. Sure hope it's true though.

Correct. To quote the google machine:

"The easiest way to distinguish between the two is that scarcity is a naturally occurring limitation on the resource that cannot be replenished. A shortage is a market condition of a particular good at a particular price."

Businesses, let alone airlines in particular, do not throw out raises and bonuses out of the goodness of their hearts. There have not been enough pilots lately willing to work at the recent historical labor price point, thus the regionals shelling out beaucoup bucks to attract labor.

If there are not enough of a particular good [pilots] willing to seek employment in the airline business at a particular price [wage], then there is a shortage. You can have an economic shortage of a good while simultaneously having significant quantities of said good. Unlike natural resources pulled from the ground, pilots will grow a plenty if you fertilize them with the stinky green cabbage. :D

I'm calling BS on that figure. American is hardly hiring anything but military fighter pilots and regional flow guys.

It would appear you have cited the evidence yourself.

Why do you suppose hiring standards might be relaxed?






.

There is still talk coming with the PBS LOA for TSA of increasing the pay rates from 5-10 dollars an hour across the board. It's not the 15 dollar pay raise people were talking about previously, but it is something. I've heard its currently the number one thing being negotiated by the union in terms for implementing PBS.