Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
 

Serious question. I have always said we will never have a true pilot shortage. Demand for pilots will increase and decrease throughout time. But even as demand increases, the supply of airline pilot candidates seems to always increase as well. Yes regionals have gotten more relaxed with their hiring standards. But they all seem to be putting people into classes. Lots of pilots who had gotten out of the game are coming back. Lots of people are joining programs like ATP to get their ratings quick. There seems to be trouble at Air Wisconsin and Expressjet, who combined employee around 5,000 pilots. Each legacy airline still has 10,000+ resumes on their desk.

Who still believes we will someday have a pilot shortage? What evidence are you basing that opinion on? I'm not trying to antagonize. I just want to see other people's point of view that is different from mine.

The fact that many regionals are having a hard time filling classes? Most regionals have to offer substantial bonuses to even get people to show up for class. Some regionals have airplanes but not enough pilots to fly them.

First year pay at some regionals has nearly doubled.

What did you expect would happen in a shortage? The apocalypse?

We are only at the beginning. The true shortage, based off of todays numbers being static or minimal increase of new pilots in the pipeline, will not actually be felt until around 2020 when the major numbers start going up on retirements.

That 10,000 apps on file is a lie as well. That number has fallen. And remember that the 10,000 is the same between each airline, with the same pilots applying everywhere. How many have already been called and are where they want to be?

I don't think things will get truly interesting for another 5 years. I think you'll start to see some of the smaller regionals have big problems in the meantime, but the industry as a whole will look vastly different starting 2021/2022 when the legacies start having the crazy retirement numbers really take off.

Looking at flight school enrollment today is a big indicator. Most students are foreign conducting their training here to go home. Even in smaller 61 type places. Even the CFI's in some cases are in the same category.

To me, the pilot shortage happens when several airplanes at several companies cannot fly because there are no pilots to fly them.

Yes, first year pay has increased (through not years 2-12) and yes, signing and retention bonuses have appeared, but these have both served to increase the supply of pilots, preventing us from having a true shortage.

When will we see regional airplanes parked because there are simply no pilots to fly them?

Plenty of airlines are parking or have parked airplanes. Regional fleets are downsizing and will continue to do so. I don't know how you can say no one at the regional level is feeling the pinch.

And yes, while the biggest increases have been in year one, many airlines have year one pay higher than the older year 2-3 pay. So, it is incorrect to say that only year one has been touched.

Up to 18,000 mandatory retirements between now and 2022.

Another thing to remember is that this industry is very reactive and not very proactive. None of the majors think that they have a shortage of apps because they have X,000's on file but as stated above but actually it's the same X,000 people with apps out everywhere. Divide that number by at least 3 and that is the true pool they have to choose from.

Pilot shortage a growing problem in regional air service: Travel Weekly

Shortage does not equal scarcity.

The 1500 Rule will really drive it.

In the past, when things got tight you could pull any 250hr hero out of training into class. Not so much anymore.

I think the shortage is felt much harder in the 135 arena, operators like GLA are all but dead.

The best indicator will be when the mainline carriers start flying into the smaller markets with bigger jets and less frequency because the regionals can't handle it anymore.

When? Delta has already started doing that.

Pilot shortage
 

I was at a layover hotel in DFW two weeks ago. Had breakfast with a pilot recruiter/interview for AA. He told me AA needs to hire 5,400 pilots over the next 3 years.

I believe the (good) regional airlines are smart and will continue to raise pay as necessary to fill seats with competent pilots. The large amount of movement with retirements and (fingers crossed) growth at the majors should help keep QOL decent across the board (reserve will be a 4-5 month affair not 1-2 years; all airlines will be hiring allowing candidates to not need to commute, etc). This increase in salary should serve to both recruit kids into the aviation schools out of high school and have private or prospective pilots in other careers think about making the leap to become an airline pilot. A lot easier to invest a large amount in education and training or leave one's day job when first year earnings potential is $60k with an expectation of earning $100k+ in 3-4 years... a very reasonable salary for the amount of responsibility a regional pilot has.

My hope is that new hire and retention bonuses will be rolled into hourly pay. There was much talk of this at Endeavor and Trans States however I haven't read much lately. Is this still an effort on behalf of the unions or companies? It seems some companies (e.g. Republic, Trans States) are making very insincere statements on earnings potential, rolling things like per diem, health/life insurance into the first year pay rates.

Anybody look at the threads of pilots coming back from other careers; second career pilots coming in; the military (all branches) hiring and will throwing off thousands of pilots over the 2020-2025 time frame. There was a time you had to be ex-mil or lots of civilian time in corporate jets ( there were no RJs) and under 32 to get hired. That when there were scarcities of pilots; now, just wait, there'll be plenty to fill the seats. Yes, lots of RJ flying will go away for less frequent B717, C-Series, etc flying to reduce the number of required pilots, marginally profitable routes will be dropped or reduce service. This has all been seen before. I'd bet the main lines could increase the cruise speed and save a couple hundred pilot positions. It was the opposite during the fuel crunches, slowing to LRC saved some furloughs.

GF

No way they can hire and train that many in 3 years. Sure hope it's true though.

Correct. To quote the google machine:

"The easiest way to distinguish between the two is that scarcity is a naturally occurring limitation on the resource that cannot be replenished. A shortage is a market condition of a particular good at a particular price."

Businesses, let alone airlines in particular, do not throw out raises and bonuses out of the goodness of their hearts. There have not been enough pilots lately willing to work at the recent historical labor price point, thus the regionals shelling out beaucoup bucks to attract labor.

If there are not enough of a particular good [pilots] willing to seek employment in the airline business at a particular price [wage], then there is a shortage. You can have an economic shortage of a good while simultaneously having significant quantities of said good. Unlike natural resources pulled from the ground, pilots will grow a plenty if you fertilize them with the stinky green cabbage. :D

I'm calling BS on that figure. American is hardly hiring anything but military fighter pilots and regional flow guys.

It would appear you have cited the evidence yourself.

Why do you suppose hiring standards might be relaxed?






.

There is still talk coming with the PBS LOA for TSA of increasing the pay rates from 5-10 dollars an hour across the board. It's not the 15 dollar pay raise people were talking about previously, but it is something. I've heard its currently the number one thing being negotiated by the union in terms for implementing PBS.

The other thing to keep in mind is that aviation (like other industries) is a pyramid. There are a lot of bad jobs, a good amount of OK jobs, some good jobs, and a few great jobs. While the definition of a "bad" pilot job has improved in the last 5 years, no one gets in this industry with dreams of retiring in an E-175 making 130K. It will still be a rat race but at least those at the very bottom of the pyramid won't need to be on food stamps. Let's hope that never happens again.

WW1 was the war to end all wars right? Probably more accurate to say, "lets hope it doesn't happen again for a very long time"...

Those that are unwilling or unable to realize the pilot shortage are either living under a rock or just in serious denial.
That stack of "10,000" applications include...
- People who aren't even qualified. Some folks have their applications in from the time they start lessons.
- People who have already been hired by a major. Maybe they got their second choice or they got their first choice and just never removed their applications from the others.
- People who have had apps in but in the meantime have lost a medical.
- Some folks who have had apps in for years and are reaching an age they they may not want to start over at the bottom to finish off the last couple years of their career.
- Those applying to the majors and have apps in to at least 3-4 places.

The regionals are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Most applicants barely meet the ATP requirements with many needing to count the sim time to reach the required hours. These bonuses and increase in pay will bring some people back into the industry who left previously but it won't be enough.
The majors have also relaxed their requirements slightly. About a year or so ago they all wanted 1,000 PIC to apply. Now that requirement is gone with more and more getting hired from the right seat of the regionals.

This shortage will continue to get worse as major airline retirements peaks in a couple years.

I would like to see data on new hires at the regional level. I would bet it could be as high as 50% are lateral moves, meaning there aren't enough new pilots.
Just examining pure numbers, lets say that 3000 pilots are leaving regionals, upward and onward, then how many new ATPs are being issued to replace them. That would be a better measure of the future.

At PSA it's certainly not anywhere close to 50%. A couple of years ago it certainly was but it seems the lateral transfers have really slowed down. We get a handful of Air Whiskey guys and maybe some ExpressJet but those are the exception now, not the norm. Really right now any pilot can get hired at any airline they want, so it's not like new 121 candidates have to take the first offer they get since they can hold out for their preferred airline/base/airplane which also cuts down on the number of people making lateral moves 1-2 years in to their career.

Look at the guys going to the regionals. It's all 40 to 50s that came from 135 and charters around the world. So no younger guys but they've managed to get the older folks to show.

The shortage disappeared when the first year pay went to $60k+. Amazing how that works.

Pay goes up-shortage disappears .Not hard to figure out. Seems simple enough to me

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...f9b4ee7f96.jpg

The market at work.

Shortage didn't go away. Some airlines are still having a hard time filling classes even with some of the highest starting pay in the industry. The highest retirement numbers haven't even started yet.

This. I'd like to see what the yearly ATP issuance shows from the FAA. If there's a downtrend, things can get very interesting in the next couple years.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/

Table 16.

Only goes back to 2011, so IMO data is skewed somewhat by the impacts of the runup of fuel costs, Age 65, and the Great Recession.

157,000 ATPs in the pool with a slow but steady rise each year? :eek:

Just remember for 2016 there is most likely a bump in numbers for some people that took the written and were getting the rating prior to the Aug 1, 2016 timeout of their 2014 written test. Basically the last push of the ATP-CPT rule change avoiders.

I found this on the FAA website. This is the number of estimated active pilots that hold ATP broken down by age.

20-24- 778
25-29- 5,707
30-34- 12,229
35-39- 16,349
40-44- 18,167
45-49- 22,506
50-54- 25,585
55-59- 24,749
60-64- 17,921
65-69- 9,847

So, we all know that an ATP is required right now to get hired at a regional airline. We know that the data will always skew light on the front end due to the time building requirement in order to get to an ATP, however, it appears that ATP issuance don't pick up until most pilots are in their 30s.

I think the biggest shock off a number is the end of the scale. in less than 10 years, 53,000 pilots will be ineligible to work at a 121 carrier (I say ineligible because the data I found tracks people into their 80s). To compare, that's more ATPs than exist right now between 21-39.

The data I found also reports Commercial ratings. If a pilot has a ATP and a commercial, they are only reported under ATP. So, here is the data for that:

16-19- 293
20-24- 10,058
25-29- 17,703
30-34- 12,011
35-39- 8,997
40-65- 7,000-8000 per group

There is a large group of pilots between 20-34 with commercial pilot certificates. We could assume that all of them will be converted to airline jobs, but seeing that between 7000-8000 over 65 years never make the jump, I think it's safe to assume at least some percent will remain commercial pilots over ATPs. Let's be conservative and say 6000 never convert. Even with the people with wet commercials, in the ages of 21-39, that only adds 25,000 pilots to the existing pool. This number also doesn't take into account commercial pilots who are training here and returning to their country of origin. I would be interested in seeing that number.

I did find an interesting statistic in there about original issuance. In 2013, ATP issuance spiked at 8,346. In 2014 and 2015, they dropped each year to 7,749 then 6,544. In 2016, however, there were 9,500 issued. I wonder if that corresponds with the increase in major activity picking more military from active service since most of them don't convert until they are hired. I also wonder why it dropped year over year until last year when certificates issued spiked to the highest level ever.

I forgot about that. It should be interesting to see what happens in 2017 then for sure.

I think table 17 is a better table for visualization.

You have two choke points at the bottom. The 1500 TT rule for guys coming from the civilian side, and the military producing less pilots. Military pilot retention is going down, so you can expect the military to try and increase its retention bonuses or try other methods to keep their pilots retained.
There are some guys starting second careers or coming back to aviation. There might be a surge of these guys when the pay bumps up and they can afford to make the switch/return, but then it drops back down.
Then you have a vacuum at the top with the majors looking to keep their planes in the air. Eventually, the regionals are going to feel the squeeze in the middle. The tighter that squeeze, the more pay and other benefits will go up at a regional.
The pilot shortage is there and is being felt. It will get worse as the regionals continue to try to fill their classes. You are already seeing more partnerships with flight schools as an attempt to reach farther back into the training pipeline to line pilots up to fill class seats. AA's WOs looking to the military rotory pilots as another source of pilots is a second example of the regionals working hard to keeps seats filled.

Interesting numbers.
I am curious what they consider "active".
Does active mean that are staying current? Or ones that have jobs in aviation?
I wonder how many of those who have an ATP are able and holding a 1st class medical? How many have had medical conditions that restrict them to a 3rd class medical but yet they are forever still a holder of an ATP.

I'm pretty sure, at least one of the last things I read, was that active meant a valid 1st or 2nd class medical.