I am back at my hotel. Was supposed to fly Alaskan, to ANC. Flight cancelled. AK has been cancelling a number of flights/week, according to AK pilots, because they don't have enough pilots. To compound the problem, Horizon has had to cancel about 1/3 of their summer flying schedule due to lack of pilots, plus, Horizon is still cancelling more flights on a weekly basis...

Alaska still has plenty of applicants at the moment. It seems as if that could be the result of poor planning and trying to run lean more than anything.

I agree with this. Initially I thought some people had some skeletons in their closets but Ive flown with captains with pretty remarkable qualifications that arent getting calls back. Masters degrees, thousands of TPIC, volunteer work, LCA, you name it the box is checked. If there is a shortage of qualified applicants I havent seen it.

I have friends from my former regional airline that were LCA and sim instructors with a few extra blips on their app (back in flight school) that still can't get called from any of the major airlines. There is no pilot shortage.

That is crazy that busted part 91 checkrides decades ago can hinder someone from moving onto a major. There must be something else on their apps which is hampering them from moving on. Perhaps they were in their position for too long and the computational algorithms deem them too complacent.... In any case, the original point stands, there most certainly is no shortage of pilots.

I think the hard part with those "computational algorithms" is that it punishes guys who were stuck in the lost decade and at the wrong airline. Did you get hired at a regional, upgrade and then get downgraded keeping you as an FO for 7 years? Well, I guess you were too lazy. The lost decade has and continues to punish people based solely on timing. Yes, it does "look bad" to have quite a few flight school failures in college and then spend 6 years in the right seat. If you are a LCA and union volunteer, and a captain, majors should be knocking on the door over 24 year olds with a few years of experience and good connections. Such is the world.

Pretty much.

True. I know lots of guys in the same situation. Also, they're seen as "career stagnant" through NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN.

I think it's come down to "what did you do with your time while waiting". Essentially those folks appear to be held to a higher standard than younger people who have remained professionally dynamic simply due to timing, ie rapid availability of career progression opportunities.

That said, there are other things you can do with your time...

People who joined or participated in the military reserves for example seem to be doing quite well, ie everybody getting called by a major, most by legacies. Includes civvy-track pilots who did not fly in the military.

Also people with multiple types seem to do better. Prop time won't do it alone, but prop time seems to reflect well on you if you have enough jet time. A recent training event is almost a must for the older crowd (last 3-5 years). They want to know that you're still trainable, and if you've flown the same plane for 15 years and are over 40 you truly might struggle. If your regional doesn't have another type, you may need to pony up for a 73 or bus type just to check that box. My understanding is that some majors may filter you out without a recent type.

Significant leadership responsibilities will get their attention too...this could include starting your own company or serving on a non-profit BOD. You'd be surprised at how many non-profits could use dynamic younger folks (ie not retired) who have some time to contribute in a leadership role. These days everybody and their brother is ladling soup at the shelter and volunteering for their kid's soccer team, so that probably doesn't make you stand out so much.

Even so, the retirements are just warming up...I expect most or all to get a call over then next 3-8 years. It's just a question of who will be senior to you. IMO it's worth making the extra effort to get out now to beat the rush, and also to avoid getting stuck in junior-man hell as the regionals scramble to deal with a staffing crisis which might become impossible to manage. Saw that play out at mesa about ten years ago...the more FO's who left, the harder the company leaned on those who stayed which of course incentivized them to leave too, and so on and so on (end result chapter 11).

Spot On. We went from the majors hiring 200 - 400 a year just a few years ago to 4,000 being hired this year. The majors still have a lot of 'extra criteria' to choose from. That is today.

The lay of the land is radically changing in the next few years. They then will be hiring most any qualified RJ pilot that does not have a bad blemish on their record.

There is probably an easier answer to this question where a true picture can be seen in very short order.

If one person from each regional airline who has kept their older seniority lists can post the total number of pilots on their roster for August of 2017 and August of 2016, that might show the trend.

Mesa:

January 2016

~1300

August 2016

~1277

August 2017

1178

I don't have access to old seniority lists atm, but at Trans States we have steadily hovered at 560 +/- 15 for the past 2 years. The current list has 572, and we dipped down to about 540 last fall when upgrades temporarily stagnated and the AA wholly-owneds raised their compensation package, then we've had a small uptick in numbers with the FO bonus and upgrades picking up.

My personal observation over the almost three years I've been here, there's been a lot of turnover of FOs, and the top maybe 30% of the seniority list hasn't had much movement. Of the senior guys there's been an occassional checkairman move up to delta/ FedEx/etc, and a few retirements. Of the people getting on at majors, it seems to be newer captains and some senior FOs that have been lucky enough to get the call. Then in the bottom part of the seniority list, there seems to be a lot of people going to LLCs and playing the regional shuffle.

That's a start. Maybe others will contribute.

Agreed. So many people got stuck in place at no fault to their own. Yet Delta and others seem to love the 24-26 year olds who graduated into this unprecedented hiring spree, thus have been really lucky with timing and, esecially, those who just happened to pick regionals with good movement for quick upgrade. I remember the Delta hiring brief at WIA this year where they mentioned they were so 'impressed' by all the qualifications their 23 and 24 year old new hires had obtained at such a young age. :rolleyes:

This entire industry is all about luck and timing. Look at all the folks that had it made at places like TWA, Eastern, Branniff, etc only to have it pulled out from under them. Hating on the kids that happen to be at the right place and time with the qualifications to go straight to a legacy serves absolutely no purpose other than making one bitter about their own career failures.

Endeavor has gone from 1550 at end of 2015, to 1850 as of the end of July 2017.

psa went from 500 to 13xx since dec 2013

Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
 

lXJT:

9/07
~3200

August 16
~1900

August 17 pre-ISL
~1500

August 17 ISL
~2600

Which carriers are hiring 23 year olds over 30 or 40 year olds? Is it just Delta? American seems to prefer older, high-time regional jet captains. From a stand-point of labor costs, it would be more beneficial for an airline to hire older pilots since they will stay at the top of the payscale for less time and do essentially the same amount of work as a younger pilot.

Half of those peeps were probably Pinnacle!

But, they fly high revenue planes for a longer period generating more revenue offsetting their higher pay. Airlines would much rather have long term pilots than spending money on hiring process, training and benefits only to have the pilot to leave.

GF

Sitting at the top of a payscale for 20+ years costs alot more than a couple type ratings and a few months in the school house. Older pilots are cheaper.

You all want proof that there isn't a pilot shortage? My buddy tried to get a ticket to the next SWA job fair. Every time that a window opened it was sold out in under a second.

More proof: saw in another thread that PSA has raised the rotor mins to 1000 hours before entering RTP, due to the overwhelming number of applicants.

For this to work, the reporting period must be the same for all participants. Its not enough to say psa went from 500 to 1300 in the last 4 years, we need to see if other airline(s) lost the 800 pilots or not or how much of those 800 are new pilots.

But on the flip-side, it sounds like Skywest and Express Jet will hire you and now accept your current longevity from your current airline and pay you that longevity pay rate, including other benefits based on longevity.

The times they are changing

So in spite of all the pilots that don't have a flow talking about how bad it is, the people on the street realize it for the gem that it is, and all The WO's are flooded with applicants.

Yeah, I don't have a flow at my regional and it sucks honestly. I've flown with captains at SkyWest that would have been at Delta if they had gone to Compass or at American if they had stayed at Eagle, but instead they're still stuck flying the Canadian Space Shuttle and proclaiming how much they wish they could get out of this sinking ship.

But when they signed up at SKW, Compass didn't exist.

When CZ was created it was owned by NWA, so you had flow to a MSP-centric major.

The AA flow from eagle was dead-in-the-water back then (maybe cancelled outright? I can't recall).

Flow was crap back then, definitely a bird in the bush.

Hindsight is 20/20...I should have taken that job at CAL in 2006 :rolleyes:

Depends on when that SKW CA was hired at SKW. Guys from my former employer that jumped ship and went as late as 2008 to CPZ flowed to DAL.

Although with the DAL/NWA merge, the status of the flow was in question. And if DAL-South had their way, probably wouldn't have happened.

Never mind that when the "Across the Table" agreement (birth of CPZ) was created it was more furlough protection than anything else.

They were "hiring", but there was the possibility one would be on the street soon if NWA had any more furloughs.

But yeah, hind sight is 20/20.

Speaking of Compass, they have just announced a new hire bonus of $17,500 now so I guess there is some kind of a shortage happening.