Does your source specify FW ATP only, or all ATPs?

Active means they have a license, PP or above, AND a medical of any class.

GF

Those were ATP airplane only. It was broken down. See the link posted earlier for details.

This is exactly what's happening right now at Horizon. A shortage of any good is indicated my an increase in the cost of that good or service. So 1st year wages going from $26,000/year to $60,000/year is a diffinitive indicator of a shortage.

Wrong.

Increased demand vs. supply drives cost higher however that does not imply a shortage in and of itself.

All this industry is experiencing is a prolonged increase in demand.

There is no lack of supply, no shortage and no scarcity. Wages are rising at the regional level to match the demand-supply curve. Majors are not having to respond with more money. ATP and student pilot issuances are up.

Once again pilots bought the shortage Kool-Aid the industry loves to dish out to keep wages suppressed. Gives them a shot at lower hiring standards with the government through a fake crisis. Flight schools also love it for the love of $$$. The media loves it cause the impending pilot shortage sensationalist headlines make them $$$.

Pilots can't decide if there is a shortage of them or if they are about to be wiped out by drones. When pilots experience a demand for their services which approximates normal demand in a typical profession it's as though they catch the vapors or something.

A nurse takes a new job, gets a signing bonus and a paid move...that's normal. Nobody blinks. A pilot gets a doggie biscuit thrown their way and the end of the world must be near. We as a group are our own worst enemies more often than not. We ineptly propagate BS by not analyzing deep enough, BS which not infrequentely is being used consciously by some to remove money from our pockets. Believe it.

I'm encouraged that ALPA and some pilots mostly headed this one off at the pass (this time) by nipping it in the bud. That's why regional wages are going up instead of FAA requirements going down.

But attention shortage Kool-Aid drinkers....it's still not too late to help the industry use congress to screw up the demand-supply curve you are for once enjoying!

Just keep saying that the pilot shortage is real. They appreciate your soundbites and WILL use it at every opportunity they can so as to fix this "problem" of having to pay you more.

I promise!

Why did the unions let wages get so low to begin with? Isn't that their job to protect the workers? :rolleyes:

I wouldn't say it's their job in regional-land. It's certainly what they're selling...

Keep in mind that lower pay for small airplanes means more money available for big airplanes.

Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
 

The truth is that there is no union that can alter the economic environment in which their members work in. A union can only take advantage of positive economic environment or shield their members in less than ideal economics. The competent ones increase total compensation in good economic times, as in now. Or soften the blow in recessions/bankruptcies. And the less competent ones settle for paltry raises in good times or rollover in weak economic circumstances and let their members take most of the brunt. Regional airlines generally live in less than an ideal economic environment, thus the relatively low wage.

In other words, don't come to SkyWest.

So you're saying that the regionals can't pay more because of the economics of the aviation business?

No, I'm saying that sometimes they can pay more and sometimes they can't. Right now they can and many are.

Where have you been for the last 5 years? Compare Republic,TSA, GoJet, PSA, PDT, Compass to their contracts in 2011. Compensation across the board has risen at an incredible pace.

New hires, bottom feeders, and prop trash have achieved a living wage. Yeah!

You must be a joy at parties.

This isn't a party. But I've done time as a new hire, a bottom feeder, and prop trash.

And where are you now? Skywest for the last, what, 10+ years? Why are you such a downer, rick?

Realist. Sometimes it's not all unicorns farting rainbows.

There is only a shortage for the crap jobs.

If there were a real shortage, LASA would have found new flying rather than being pretty much shut down.

There is a shortage of people willing to start all over for 1/2 the pay.

Regionals are not career destinations, and never will be. ACA, Comair, and now ASA have proven that. The boys at SKYW may think they are immune, but they are wrong. Once their list gets too senior, they won't be cost competitive-and they will be disposed of as well.

All true.

There is a caveat though...

While majors outsource regional flying to save costs, that does not mean they could bring it all in house and operate it at a profit. Assuming on average mainline FO's would need about $90K and CA's $160K, and the average regional pay is more like $50K/$90K, that's $110K more per crew. Assume five crew per aircraft, that's over $500K more to bring that flying in house. Many RJ routes don't make anywhere near that kind of profit, so those routes would have to go away.

A few could survive by raising fares, if the market supports that.

A few might survive if their fed to a hub justifies operating at a loss, but despite this being a common rationalization of RJ drivers it is NOT the case in every case, or even most cases.

A few high-dollar markets can already support mainline wages for RJ's (ie ASE, JAC, etc)

So the size of the RJ market is dependent to a significant degree on the cost, of which pilot labor is a key component. Any time an RJ driver starts rationalizing why he should be paid to operate at a loss, that's a big red warning flag.

Bottom line, if you want mainline pay and a sustainable career, better go go to mainline.

Good chance if a pilot shortage got severe enough, then many RJ's will go away and others will come in-house. If push comes to shove with pilots, majors could cover three daily RJ flights with one narrowbody, reducing their need for pilots on that route by 2/3's. Problem there is PAX prefer frequency, ie don't want to sit around the hub for nine hours to catch their connection.

RJ's coming in-house depends on how much risk majors are willing to incur with new-hire pilots. If necessary they can quickly dial up the flow of new pilots by paying their way through training...but the current infrastructure is pretty haphazard and the product quality is inconsistent they may not want all of those people on their union-protected seniority list for decades to come. Majors would really need to set-up academy style programs with high standards if they're going the ab-initio route.

The best way to put it:

Once a regional becomes a place which doesn't suck, it's too expensive-and the flying will go to the bottom feeders. The regional industry blows. It's a B scale with no light at the end of the tunnel for too many people.

Consolidation helped ease the demand on pilots.
American Eagle Puerto Rico operation ceased
Skywest Brasilia operation ceased
Mesa Hawaiian operation ceased
Chautauqua
Shuttle America
Mesaba
Colgan
ComAir
Lynx
Air Midwest
all consolidated or ceased.
Airlines have lowered there hiring standards and washed out fewer new hires, allowing more sim.
More and more flying has gone to PBS carriers who can operate more flights with less people.
More carriers award line above 75 hours utilizing the same size group to fly more.
Delta has grown the their total pilot count and coverd more flying which could have been outsourced.
More RJ company's fly >50 seat airplanes requireing less hulls and jobs.
Most RJ company's have gotten rid of anything that was <50 seats.
In 2008 6 major airlines still operated their separate regional feed systems, which created overlap compared to today's networks.

Is this good or bad? I'am detecting sarcasm? $121 for the captain and $19 for the FO was the glory days? You feel inflation sneaking up on you if an FO can afford to eat and pay rent?

What would tickle your fancy? FO's pay to play and captains go to $130 an hour?

Sarcasm. Regional pay has risen significantly at the bottom, which is to say instead of living in a van down by the river, you can now afford an apartment. Regional compensation hasn't changed much at the middle or top, and you can make a plausible case that it has declined at the top, especially if you count QOL and bennies.

Just the nature of the beast, only reason the bottom has improved is because needs to attract pilots.

This is not accurate in the case of SWA. Earlier this year SWA had ~2,800 qualified applicants on file and historically they've had ~7,000 on file on any given day. Hence why they changed the 1,000 TPIC requirement to 1,000 TPIC preferred. We can assume those same ~2,800 applicants are most likely on file at the usually legacies and cargo carriers. Recently SWA has eliminated the type rating requirement and the 1,000 TPIC requirement. Those are 40+ year policies gone in the span of only a couple of years.

Make your own conclusion about whether or not to call this a Pilot shortage but the fact is hiring practices are changing. There are 15 more years of escalating nationwide retirements.

Soo you're saying you can make a career at Mesa cause they suck and will always suck? [emoji848]


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As long as Mesa continues their long and proud tradition of being just about the crappiest regional in human history.

Ironically our seniority list is shrinking after the TA passed. Short of a bad recession I see Mesa shrinking considerably over the next 5 years.

With the wholly owneds becoming accepted cost centers for mainline, I think a new school of thought regarding regionals has emerged.

FO I flew with recently said AA HR told him they now have 3000 resumes on file of qualified applicants...2007 they had 13,000.

AA is losing 74% of their pilots over the next ten years. They're free to call me any time.

Anyone have a breakdown or list of the mandatory retirement's at each airline? I know I saw one somewhere but can't remember where.

It’s on the APC sure under airline profiles. Link: http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines

Pay shortage.
Legacy carriers, UPS, FedEx, etc. won't have problems filling classes.
Could be some consolidation in the regional world and mainline picking up more of what was formerly "regional feed."

Thanks, I think someone also compiled a list somewhere as well.

You’re welcome!

I have a hard time believing that. Just this March at WIA, BK at United said they have been hovering between 10k-11k apps on file. Delta said they had 10k. AA didn't have much of any presence there, which leads me to believe they have no issues filling classes atm. The general consensus is that the level of experience is going down some.. but we did have a decade of almost no hiring, so you have pilots who have been stuck in the system for 8-10 years building experience that are finally getting the chance to move up, so the stats of the pool are going to go down.

Also, 'qualified' what does that mean? The magic number of 'points' that makes you competitive to get into the interview pool? I'm betting the majority of applicants have well over the minimum of a degree, ATP and 1000 turbine.

ALPA has 14,000 fee for departure members. Plus another ~7500 non-alpa regional pilots. So 21,500 regional pilots, this isn't including cargo and LLCs. Half of those 21.5k are captains acting as PIC on a jet in 121 ops. Then there's long term FOs stuck with 4000+ TT and years of airline experience. Then the military is losing ~1500 pilots per year and the majority of them do not put an app in until they are less than a year from separating, and the vast majority go straight to a major airline. Bottom line, I have a very hard time believing there's only 3000 qualified apps at any major. There's at least 20,000 regional pilots with the minimum qualifications. Many of whom have well over minimum qualifications, and many have thier apps in at places.

Southwest is the oddity since about half of the regional pilot pool didn't have the requisite 1000 TPIC to even fill out an app, and some of those that did have the TPIC time do not want to spend the rest of their career on a 73 with a rumored 14-16 year upgrade and thus did not apply.

from an earlier post in this thread:
The FO who told me this said that both figures, the 13,000 resumes on file in 2007, and the 3,000 on file in 2017, were for qualified pilots. They met the minimum qualifications for AA.

Last year, I was reading the Hawaiian hiring thread. One of the Hawaiian pilots, said that in Jan of last year they had "thousands" of resumes on file, and by that same Spring, they had "hundreds".

SWA dropped their 1000TPIC in 2016?, earlier this year??? The 1000TPIC is now "preferred".

It is simply amazing to see some pilots' reactions to a more normalized supply of labor, relative to the glut experienced in the last decade.

I have some news for you my friend. Having been in this industry for over 25 years I can tell you unequivocally, if an airline managers lips are moving, they're lying. In addition, even if those numbers were true, it's the same 10,000 guys with 90% of them having apps out everywhere. Whatever number united or delta, aa et al tosses out there, divide it by at least 3 and that is the true size of their pool. It's here folks and the the first major understand this and get out in front of it is going leave the others holding the bag.

https://youtu.be/RLnK6BFT_2c

Uhhh, is this what you had in mind, friend?

I get it that management lies, but what the hell do they have to gain from overinflating the number of apps on file??

And yes, most people have there apps out everywhere, or at least more than one place. However, there are new people putting in apps almost daily.

I used to fly with captains all the time that couldn't seem to get the call with 7-10k hours, thousands of TPIC, many of them good guys with checkairman/ training dept/ union volunteering experience. When those guys start going en masse, and the majors actually start hiring pilots without a 4 year degree I'll believe that the shortage has really hit.