Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
 

Serious question. I have always said we will never have a true pilot shortage. Demand for pilots will increase and decrease throughout time. But even as demand increases, the supply of airline pilot candidates seems to always increase as well. Yes regionals have gotten more relaxed with their hiring standards. But they all seem to be putting people into classes. Lots of pilots who had gotten out of the game are coming back. Lots of people are joining programs like ATP to get their ratings quick. There seems to be trouble at Air Wisconsin and Expressjet, who combined employee around 5,000 pilots. Each legacy airline still has 10,000+ resumes on their desk.

Who still believes we will someday have a pilot shortage? What evidence are you basing that opinion on? I'm not trying to antagonize. I just want to see other people's point of view that is different from mine.

The fact that many regionals are having a hard time filling classes? Most regionals have to offer substantial bonuses to even get people to show up for class. Some regionals have airplanes but not enough pilots to fly them.

First year pay at some regionals has nearly doubled.

What did you expect would happen in a shortage? The apocalypse?

We are only at the beginning. The true shortage, based off of todays numbers being static or minimal increase of new pilots in the pipeline, will not actually be felt until around 2020 when the major numbers start going up on retirements.

That 10,000 apps on file is a lie as well. That number has fallen. And remember that the 10,000 is the same between each airline, with the same pilots applying everywhere. How many have already been called and are where they want to be?

I don't think things will get truly interesting for another 5 years. I think you'll start to see some of the smaller regionals have big problems in the meantime, but the industry as a whole will look vastly different starting 2021/2022 when the legacies start having the crazy retirement numbers really take off.

Looking at flight school enrollment today is a big indicator. Most students are foreign conducting their training here to go home. Even in smaller 61 type places. Even the CFI's in some cases are in the same category.

To me, the pilot shortage happens when several airplanes at several companies cannot fly because there are no pilots to fly them.

Yes, first year pay has increased (through not years 2-12) and yes, signing and retention bonuses have appeared, but these have both served to increase the supply of pilots, preventing us from having a true shortage.

When will we see regional airplanes parked because there are simply no pilots to fly them?

Plenty of airlines are parking or have parked airplanes. Regional fleets are downsizing and will continue to do so. I don't know how you can say no one at the regional level is feeling the pinch.

And yes, while the biggest increases have been in year one, many airlines have year one pay higher than the older year 2-3 pay. So, it is incorrect to say that only year one has been touched.

Up to 18,000 mandatory retirements between now and 2022.

Another thing to remember is that this industry is very reactive and not very proactive. None of the majors think that they have a shortage of apps because they have X,000's on file but as stated above but actually it's the same X,000 people with apps out everywhere. Divide that number by at least 3 and that is the true pool they have to choose from.

Pilot shortage a growing problem in regional air service: Travel Weekly

Shortage does not equal scarcity.

The 1500 Rule will really drive it.

In the past, when things got tight you could pull any 250hr hero out of training into class. Not so much anymore.

I think the shortage is felt much harder in the 135 arena, operators like GLA are all but dead.