When will hiring stop?
09-03-2017, 12:22 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
Originally Posted by KnotSee
What makes you say such nonsense? A trade war with China will hit US companies hard and will stifle the demand for air travel.
With the greatly reduced demand for flying, the legacies will be able to absorb retirements with very little to no hiring.
With the greatly reduced demand for flying, the legacies will be able to absorb retirements with very little to no hiring.
That place is like herding cats on a good day.
09-03-2017, 12:26 PM
#14
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2017
Posts: 44
Originally Posted by gzsg
Chinese wouldn't last a second. They would lose control of their people immediately.
That place is like herding cats on a good day.
That place is like herding cats on a good day.
09-03-2017, 12:32 PM
#15
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
Originally Posted by gzsg
Chinese wouldn't last a second. They would lose control of their people immediately.
That place is like herding cats on a good day.
That place is like herding cats on a good day.
The Chinese see the writing on the wall, their entire economy is a fraud. A lot of that labor that went overseas is coming back over the next decade, as robots can do 90% of their jobs for less.
With upcoming geopolitical issues, and economic malaise. I can easily see international travel cut by 75% or more over the next two decades.
09-03-2017, 01:14 PM
#17
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,945
Retirements are huge over the next 20 year (90% of the pilots with the majors.) With the older captains on the regionals and those getting back in (that left after 9/11), that could easily extend another 5-10 years more. Further, there will be growth. As much growth domestically, other countries pilot demand is forecast to go through the roof.
Beyond 25-30 years, the crystal ball goes blank.
Recessions or extension of retirement age temporarily slow things down, but over the long run, will not have an impact.
Of course, a Black Swan event could change things.
Anyone starting into this industry (age 18 going to college or age 22-23 getting on with a regional) should be well into a major's captain seniority by then.
YMMV
Beyond 25-30 years, the crystal ball goes blank.
Recessions or extension of retirement age temporarily slow things down, but over the long run, will not have an impact.
Of course, a Black Swan event could change things.
Anyone starting into this industry (age 18 going to college or age 22-23 getting on with a regional) should be well into a major's captain seniority by then.
YMMV
09-03-2017, 01:22 PM
#18
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
Even if there was another 9/11, the impact would be nowhere near what the first one was. Really, I don't see any factor that could bring the airlines to its knees, other than a Yellowstone super-volcano eruption type natural disaster.
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