airscout

This trade war begun by Boeing/Trump (220% tariff on Bombardier) is a recent example of how quick things can change. The C-series was to take over Crj700/900 routes and the 700/900s were supposed to put the Crj-200s back into the desert. Now what happens? 50-seaters stick around a while? C-series orders turn into Crj-1000 orders? Who knows? It's a totally chaotic business and it's especially so for regionals and it's especially so when the government doesn't have coherent/stable policies.

Tariffs and trade wars are only going to make everything worse.

chrisreedrules

If you're looking for fast TPIC realize that by the time you get hired, get through training, possibly sit a short stint of reserve, then finally hold a line... It will be about 2 to 2.5 years before you have the minimum qualifications to upgrade to CA at any regional. This industry is going to look completely different in a lot of ways come 2 years time.

If I were choosing a regional today I would pretty much be avoiding one that exclusively flies 50 seat airplanes. Sure some of them may be growing to some extent right now but ultimately the 50-seater is going to go away. Fuel prices have already shot up considerably just since the beginning of the summer thank to a couple of hurricanes. Now think what would happen if we have another war or some other natural disaster that disrupts the energy sector here in the US. Those 50 seaters will quickly become a heavy weight on the legacy balance sheets.

If I were choosing today I would be looking at the American wholly-owned regionals (Envoy, PSA, and Piedmont) or Endeavor. As much as I don't want to recommend them, if you live on the west coast SkyWest is worth a look. Also Republic if you happen to be hellbent on flying the 175 and like their bases. Other than that I would be cautious.

amcnd

The upgrade is about to drop big time at SkyWest. Its 1.7 years. And the guys at the 1.7- under dont have the Time required. If you hVe 121 experience. Jump onboard now and upgrade in under 6 months is my guess..

rickair7777

It was like that in '07, and probably be back soon.

123494

Piedmont only flies 50 seaters...

chrisreedrules

They are the enigma. I don't think Piedmont is going anywhere, but beyond speculation I don't know what American's plans are for the 3 WOs. They may just continue the flow programs in their current form and grow them until they simply can't grow them any more. Or they may absorb them in some form or another as staffing becomes more and more difficult and costly.

Otterbox

Piedmont has provisions in their contract for ERJ 170/5... they’ll likely get them if AAs pilot group caves and gives scope relief during its next round of contract negotiations or AA cancels it’s contract with a ERJ 170/175 operator like Republic.

Otherwise, Piedmont is currently taking 2 jets a month this year and slated to take 3 jets a month starting next year to cover the transition from its props and cover expansion to take over some of the lift shed when AWAC got its contract cancelled and the downsizing Envoy’s top heavy pilot group.

Medium term guessing is AA cancelling its lift with some more expensive and/ or unreliable 50 seat carriers (They’ve already got a list of prospective candidates aside from AWAC) and shifting that to Piedmont to continue its growth.

Two years ago PDT had something like 450 pilots, today it has 650 something and is slated to expand to 1000-1500 as it picks up more of AAs regional lift requirements.

Geardownflaps30

Remember, AA owns about 1/3 of Republic now. They aren't cancelling any flying with them anymore than they are with Eagle any time soon.

chrisreedrules

While I personally don't think that Republic will lose its American Eagle flying, just because American owns a piece of the pie doesn't mean they won't sell it and/or work out some other plan if it benefits them financially.

My opinion (not necessarily based on anything other than that) is that SkyWest and Republic will continue the Eagle stuff. Republic has the certifications to fly the Caribbean over water stuff. SkyWest has the certs to fly into Aspen and other airports that would cost AA millions in pilot training alone to get their WO crews certified to do.

The carriers I think that are most at risk in the near term are Trans States and Compass. But with AWAC leaving the Eagle fold it leaves a pretty big hole in the equation that they are still scrambling to fill so the WOs are already pretty much maxed out on their ability to grow.

SIUav8er

As much as I advise people NOT come to work for Horizon, our upgrade time in the Q400 is less than a year if you have some previous experience. Actually, as soon as you meet the legal requirements (1000 hours 121 time), you can upgrade here. There are also some provisions in the regs that allow 500 hours of 135 or military tine count towards the 1000. Of course all other aspects of this place suck, but at least youll be in the left seat asap!