SabineFlyer

1. What are the REAL estimates of flow through from Envoy and PSA, and will those estimates improve during the next fives years due to mandatory retirements?

2.Is it any more beneficial to choose Envoy or PSA with flow through, than it would say Republic or Skywest? Do Republic and Skywest CA's get to the majors at the same rate or quicker than those with guaranteed flow agreements?

havick206

The added benefit of a flow through (aside from having it as insurance), is the guaranteed movement on the seniority list every month off the top of the list.

bigtime209

This is a tricky subject due to the fact there are so many variables. To answer your first question, I'll speak from the perspective of an Envoy guy. There are 2 flow projections you can look at. The projection that the company puts out and the flow projection on our union seniority list. The company currently puts the estimate at 5.5-6 years to flow as a new hire. The union seniority list shows over 8.5 years to flow as a new hire. The company number takes into consideration a certain amount of attrition over the years. The union number considers that every single pilot stays at Envoy and waits for the flow. Now of course there will be people leaving before the flow, so the 8.5 year number is going to be high. Will the actual attrition bring the real number close to the company's estimate of 6 years? Who knows. I'm not sure how they predict how many people will leave outside of the flow over the years. Either way, this all assumes that things will continue to look like they do now a few years down the road from now. My personal opinion is that AA and its wholly owned regionals and their flow will look vastly different in the coming years. This industry is so dynamic and cyclical that I really don't believe that the flow will look like it does in today's market. Will things look better or will they look worse in that regard? I have no clue. I just know this industry and I know how things change at the flip of a hat. Just look at the last 10 years. Huge roller coaster of a ride over this past decade.

Now as far as having a leg up getting to a major at an AA WO vs Republic or SKW...If you're talking about AA, then you've got a much higher chance of getting to AA via a flow unless you have a military aviation background. Out of all of the pilots that AA hired last year, a whopping 60 were hired that were not flows or were not military guys. That's a very small percentage of slots left for other street hires to duke it out for. As for majors other than AA, you'd have no advantage or disadvantage compared to guys at other regionals. As far as getting to another major, all they care about is how impressive your resume looks and how many boxes you can check on the application.

It all comes down to what you think is the good option for you. If you feel like you're marketable enough to get on with a major on your own accord, then go to EDV or Republic and make the better money while working under a good contract. If you want the flow ticket in your back pocket as an insurance policy and the guaranteed movement off the top of the list, then an AA WO might be good for you. It's honestly tough to predict what kinds of twists and turns this road in the airline industry has in store for us all. Good luck.

flywithjohn

1. Its a moving target, a conservative estimate if you were hired today is 5-7 years factoring mandatory retirements. It may be shorter or longer.
2. It depends - AA tends to hire or "flow" from their three regionals or the military before a external applicant. DL and UA appear to have no explicit preference (some argue there is a preference for END candidates at DL, I disagree). Generally speaking a flow is designed to do two things:
I. A recruitment tool for a mainline airline to recruit and more importantly retain pilots at their regional carrier/ subsidiary.
II. Provide a healthy pool of pilot applicants for their mainline operation - this is a distant second while there is a healthy reserve of external applicants.

The good about a flow – you have a tentatively guaranteed job a major airline, eventually. Depending on your personal circumstances it may be perfectly acceptable for you to get hired a regional, but not the mainline airline. A flow can circumvent this.
The bad about a flow – the first goal of a flow is provide recruiting and retention at the regional level, you likely will be qualified for several months of years prior to flowing when you could have gotten the position off the streets sooner.
Additionally – none of them appear to entirely contractually protected, I could be wrong on this as I have never read any of the Eagle operators CBAs.

My advice to you is if you go to a place with a flow, treat it as your backup plan - not the primary goal. Good luck.

chrisreedrules

There are zero negatives to the flows that the 3 AA WOs enjoy. The only negatives compared to RAH 9E etc is the sub par compensation after year 1 and sub par contracts. Right or wrong, AA places a lot of value in the flow and what we think doesn’t matter so much.

rickair7777

It's a great backup if nothing else. Depending on hiring, odds are that you'll become competitive for off-the-street hiring at the big six before you flow to AA, but if something happens you have a pretty sure thing in your hip pocket.