The Slow Death of the Multi-Carrier Regional
02-08-2019, 08:49 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 279
Originally Posted by EFBprobs
I dont think mainline wants all WO. They want to have a race to the bottom for contract price.
You may think I’m crazy by saying that, but the numbers don’t lie. By 2028, the number of retirements will be plus 10,000 than the number of regional pilots in the game today. By 2032 plus 20,000.
02-08-2019, 08:58 PM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 130
Originally Posted by Fixnem2Flyinem
That worked in the last decade or two, with the retirement rate in the future, whipsawing will be the last thing on money hugging managers minds. I’ll put a round of cold beers on WO’d being the only surviving regionals by 2028...
You may think I’m crazy by saying that, but the numbers don’t lie. By 2028, the number of retirements will equal the number of regional pilots in the game today.
You may think I’m crazy by saying that, but the numbers don’t lie. By 2028, the number of retirements will equal the number of regional pilots in the game today.
Edit: I take that back, that's a dumb prediction they're still building RJ's
02-08-2019, 09:00 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 279
Originally Posted by EFBprobs
Dang if you can tell me what this industry will be like in 10 years I'll buy you the whole brewery. My guess all the way out at 10 years is that there will only be 2 legacies, and neither will have regionals. They'll all be in house. The smallest airplane in the fleet being the smaller c-series or equivalent
02-08-2019, 09:03 PM
#24
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,481
Originally Posted by Fixnem2Flyinem
You may think I’m crazy by saying that, but the numbers don’t lie. By 2028, the number of retirements will equal the number of regional pilots in the game today.
By 2028, the US military will have retired or separated an additional 25,000 military pilots aged from 33 to 48. The airlines love these guys for a variety of reasons including relatively low medical costs since many have Tricare, a known long history where it would have been particularly difficult to conceal problems from their employer, and the simple fact that the average cost per flying year for someone you hire at age 40 is considerably less than that to hire a 25 rear old who would then wind up spending 28 years at the pay of a senior captain.
Don’t get me wrong, the retirement wave means better times are coming, but at the major level it’s still a buyers market, and those buyers are going to buy the cheapest pilots that can do the job.
02-08-2019, 09:12 PM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 130
Originally Posted by Excargodog
By 2028, the US military will have retired or separated an additional 25,000 military pilots aged from 33 to 48. The airlines love these guys for a variety of reasons including relatively low medical costs since many have Tricare, a known long history where it would have been particularly difficult to conceal problems from their employer, and the simple fact that the average cost per flying year for someone you hire at age 40 is considerably less than that to hire a 25 rear old who would then wind up spending 28 years at the pay of a senior captain.
Don’t get me wrong, the retirement wave means better times are coming, but at the major level it’s still a buyers market, and those buyers are going to buy the cheapest pilots that can do the job.
Don’t get me wrong, the retirement wave means better times are coming, but at the major level it’s still a buyers market, and those buyers are going to buy the cheapest pilots that can do the job.
Another thing to consider is airlines are growing, and large airplanes like the 747 and a380 are going out of style. Smaller airplanes doing longer and more frequent routes help
02-08-2019, 09:13 PM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 279
Originally Posted by Excargodog
By 2028, the US military will have retired or separated an additional 25,000 military pilots aged from 33 to 48. The airlines love these guys for a variety of reasons including relatively low medical costs since many have Tricare, a known long history where it would have been particularly difficult to conceal problems from their employer, and the simple fact that the average cost per flying year for someone you hire at age 40 is considerably less than that to hire a 25 rear old who would then wind up spending 28 years at the pay of a senior captain.
Don’t get me wrong, the retirement wave means better times are coming, but at the major level it’s still a buyers market, and those buyers are going to buy the cheapest pilots that can do the job.
Don’t get me wrong, the retirement wave means better times are coming, but at the major level it’s still a buyers market, and those buyers are going to buy the cheapest pilots that can do the job.
02-08-2019, 09:48 PM
#27
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 408
Originally Posted by Fixnem2Flyinem
That worked in the last decade or two, with the retirement rate in the future, whipsawing will be the last thing on money hugging managers minds. I’ll put a round of cold beers on WO’d being the only surviving regionals by 2028...
You may think I’m crazy by saying that, but the numbers don’t lie. By 2028, the number of retirements will be plus 10,000 than the number of regional pilots in the game today. By 2032 plus 20,000.
You may think I’m crazy by saying that, but the numbers don’t lie. By 2028, the number of retirements will be plus 10,000 than the number of regional pilots in the game today. By 2032 plus 20,000.
Last edited by stabapch; 02-08-2019 at 09:59 PM.
02-08-2019, 10:08 PM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 279
Originally Posted by stabapch
Anything can happen in 10 years. However, currently there are no trends in this industry that coincide with your statement. Everything is playing out the same way it has decades ago. Future retirements will not force all regionals to consolidate to WO’s.....
Last edited by Fixnem2Flyinem; 02-08-2019 at 10:23 PM.
02-09-2019, 07:12 AM
#29
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 408
Originally Posted by Fixnem2Flyinem
So in 2009, when regionals were paying 20k and Great Lakes had 100’s of resumes on file, how is that the same as now? Right now regionals are throwing bonuses at new hires causing their pay to be higher than captains at some places. Most are begging for pilots that can upgrade at almost street CA rates... A lot has changed since 2009 and a lot will change by 2028. I’m not saying it WILL happen, I’m just willing to bet that it will. We all know we’re just one recession or war away from stagnation, but it won’t be as bad as regionals having 12 year FO’s again. Therefore IF the economy stays out of hot water, yes regionals like GoJet, Compass, Republic and even SkyWest will be hurting by then. Again, just my opinion, or maybe a hopeful outlook as I despise the regional blood sucking model that has been created.
Reference ’s post.
02-09-2019, 08:36 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 2,480
Originally Posted by Fixnem2Flyinem
So in 2009, when regionals were paying 20k and Great Lakes had 100’s of resumes on file, how is that the same as now? Right now regionals are throwing bonuses at new hires causing their pay to be higher than captains at some places. Most are begging for pilots that can upgrade at almost street CA rates... A lot has changed since 2009 and a lot will change by 2028. I’m not saying it WILL happen, I’m just willing to bet that it will. We all know we’re just one recession or war away from stagnation, but it won’t be as bad as regionals having 12 year FO’s again. Therefore IF the economy stays out of hot water, yes regionals like GoJet, Compass, Republic and even SkyWest will be hurting by then. Again, just my opinion, or maybe a hopeful outlook as I despise the regional blood sucking model that has been created.
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