It's been closer to 140 for at least half a year. We've grown by about 1700 pilots in less than 5 years. I don't know what you expect for a source. My point was AA will have no issues keeping up with attrition.

Okay. If not dreaming, certainly overstating. According to recent demographics put out by DL and AA, and according to a SW recruitment event, military pilots account for approximately 50% of new hires. If they are a minority, it's that they are at 48%. They will never become "scarce", that's certainly dramatic. As stated in this thread, 1200-1500 retiring/separating per year. That's not scarce. They put those programs into place to fill their regional feeds. It's a recruitment tactic, and will let them indoctrinate young pilots early in all ways Delta.

Okay. That's still not "at least 1500/year". Not even close.

The key word there is grown.

That's assuming all military pilots want to fly as a civilian when they get out. I knew many that didn't because they got well paying jobs when they got out due to their command experience and security clearance.

I hope many of them don't. No offense to them.

It’s a pyramidal command structure. Somebody has to stick around to be Chairman of the JCS but a fighter squadron with 24 pilots in it will only have two O-5s and a whole wing might have only three (pilot) O-6s. Except for those who become shills for K-street or sit on the board of USAA, most will make more money flying after separation/retirement than anything else.

And I’m not sure if it was by intention or ignorance (with Congress you can’t tell) but opening the RATP up to the military rotor guys introduced a HUGE new addition to the supply. Mother Rucker cranks out another 100 military rotorheads a month, most of whom will now be getting out when their ADSC is up and looking strongly at the regionals for additional FW time and then taking their shot at the majors.

https://taskandpurpose.com/commercia...icopter-pilots

Again man, I don't know what I have to gain by making up numbers. We outpace attrition by 30 to 80/month. We have 2 giant training centers. I'm sure we'll surpass 1500 by quite a bit this year.

No doubt SkyWest is a huge company. Maybe I’m wrong, just seemed really astounding to me. 125/month for a company with 4700 pilots. Legacies with 14,000 pilots on full tilt aren’t pushing those numbers.

Outpacing attrition by an average of 55/month is 660 additional pilots this year, bringing the total to 5360. Is there that much net growth at SkyWest?

I’m just having a hard time with the numbers. Then again, I don’t work there.

Compass has an attrition (and hiring rate) of 20 a month from a pilot group of about an eighth as big as OO. Those numbers don’t seem all that surprising really. And yeah, the turnover for the guys at the legacies is mainly death, disability, and early or age 65 retirement. Not many legacy pilots leaving to go back to work at the regionals...:D

We lose about 5% of the seniority list every month at my airline. Even if SKW lost half that they’d still need to hire 110+ a month just to keep up with attrition.

We're already at 4900 pilots. Wouldn't surprise me if we hit 5300-5500 by the end of the year. We're constantly short-staffed as the company picks up slack for other regionals that can't staff. Legacies aren't losing many pilots to other carriers. American will need to come close to those numbers to keep up with attrition.

There have been RAND studies on this very topic.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/documented...ngs/DB118.html

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1455.pdf

Speaking of flow, how does being part of an airline with a preferential hiring scheme affect one’s chances of being hired outside of such scheme? In other words, if someone wants to go to AA outside the flow, is he/she better off not going to a WO? Would someone willing to go to Delta better off not being at Endeavor? United/CPP?

AA hired an average of four WO pilots outside the flow each month in 2018, on top of the flows it took. Folks can and do get hired on at AA outside the flow.

That second study is very insightful (mainly because it is so much more recent than the first). Thx for posting.

Quite the opposite is actually true. AA has already stated they have a preference to WO pilots both with the flows and hiring WO pilots outside the flow. I know several hired at American outside the flow from my AAG regional.

Depends on how much of a conspiracy theorist to whom you're talking is.

At Endeavor, if you pass the marks to get an OTS Delta interview, then you're probably in as good a shape as anyone to land the job there. If you can't get the interview OTS, well... there's a reason that it's called the DGI, not the DGJ. It doesn't mean that you can't pass the interview, but having Endeavor experience is far from a silver bullet.

I dont know much about SkyWest but it doesn't seem unlikely to me. If you cut SkyWest numbers in half you get roughly Envoy numbers. 2400 pilots with 750ish(+900 pilots in 2017) on average since 2016.

Regional airlines have a much higher attrition rate than mainline.

Here is my 2¢, pick an airline with CPP if you are just now getting into the 121 world. First, I know it’s not a true flow but you know whether you are accepted with in the first year. If United says no, jump over to a AA regional and wait the 8 years for the flow.(or go to a LCC or ACMI) The CPP programs are also much faster with most sending people in the 5 year mark consistently. Look at long term planning, if you make it to United in about 5 years you will be right at the beginning of their huge retirement wave. If you join an AA regional now and flow in 7-10 years you will be at the very back of their retirement wave. This difference in seniority at the major might be significant enough where if you go to AA you might never get the chance to upgrade, and if you do it will be in the last few years of your career. If you go to United right at the beginning of the hiring wave you will have a huge boost in seniority every year which will not only speed up the upgrade but will also help move into the widebody fleet of you so choose. Lastly is the other programs like DGI, I would steer clear of these as you have to wait years to find out your status of progression. At least with a CPP you know fast and can make adjustments if needed.

Not quite. A mid-2017 hire’s projected flow is mid 2023. 6 years. Mid to late 2016 hires are projected at only 5 years. That’s where it dipped. But yeah the projections are going back up. But I too am curious to see the impact of retirements at AA. My guess is their fleet will shrink somewhat regardless as they work on efficiencies and won’t need to backfill all 8300 pilots. But still they are going to need a lot of qualified bodies. Maybe the WO’s will just get stapled to the bottom of the list.

But then who would do all the B-scale work?

Well, SkyWest, of course!

I was hoping all of Flyboy68's ***tty threads would die after he got banned.

He got banned? Lol

If my thread is so ****ty, then why are you posting on page 7 genius?

You just can’t help being an ass can you?

****, it was only a temp ban :mad:

You're stuck with me, sorry.

No Mesa is and you will fit in quite nicely there......

Flyboy. These are 3 very simple yes or no questions.

Do you realize that you are being almost universally derided for your complete lack of self-awareness, foolishness, and inability to take criticism?

Do you also realize that almost every post you make makes you look worse and worse?

OR: Are you simply a troll?

Answer format should be:
Yes or No
Yes or No
Yes or No

Hey now. Some of us turned out alright despite YV.

I've gotten several PM's from people telling me "Don't worry about those a-holes, they're a bunch of childish bullies on an anonymous message board". One guy told me I was "a breath of fresh air on here" and he loved how I "give it back to the asses on here". So, apparently people like you have a problem with me, but others don't. That's your opinion of me, and you're welcome to it, but you're just one person, not a consensus.Exaggerate much do you? I can say the same for you.

How the hell is saying "You're stuck with me" to a troll make me look bad?
No more than you are with these stupid questions.

How about this. You obviously don't like me and I don't care. You mean less than nothing to me. So stop posting in my threads, commenting on my posts, and offering your criticism/insults. Okay?

You are more entertaining when you're drunk.

I wish I could say you were more pleasant anytime, but you're not. You know where you can go, and what you can do to yourself. Okay?

Read between the lines.

Then stop posting so much drivel on my internet.

How about you shut up and attacking the OO for a good thread. You and weatherman are acting pathetic. Knock it off.


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Back to the subject at hand.

Things changed. True flow, decent pay and good QOL?

Only option or all three is currently PSA with their new pay scale.

flyboy, accidentally post with one of your fake usernames here?

Not sure what makes you think this is a fake username but I’ll say it again, knock it off.

Done replying to you on this thread.


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Knock what off? site examples.