Best "real" flow to a major?
 

Which regional has the best "real" flow to a major whether it's a CPP or flow?

Basically, who sends the most regional pilots (CA's and FO's) to a major through their program?

Thanks in advance.

CPP isn’t a flow. Period.

Envoy.

Correct, only the AA cairriers have a legacy flow and no one else ever will.

And anyone who thinks it’s a lead pipe cinch even for them is wrong. It’s like the Delta pilot pensions which evaporated in their bankruptcy. A contract really isn’t exactly....well, a contract these days. It’s more ‘what’s ours is ours, what’s yours is negotiable...and subject to mandatory mediation’. :(

So, Envoy is the consensus?

The problem is your question is flawed. Envoy is sending the most pilots to a legacy, but that’s because they have the most pilots. With a relatively equal percentage of pilots moving, Envoy sends the most. That does not, however, mean Envoy is the fastest to a mainline. Thats a moving target and subject to many variables. And as stated, this is all a moot point once AA decides to cancel the flow...

It shows 2500 pilots at Envoy on the APC airline profile compared to >4600 for SkyWest. Do you mean most pilots with a flow?

Regardless, they're not the fastest? They're advertising this on their profile,"At this point in time, new hires should expect to flow in 5.5 - 6 years."

I probably didn't word my question correctly, but you get the gist of it. Thanks.

Pay close attention to the word "should". Their own union argues that claim by the way.

I think he meant the biggest of the AA wholly owneds.

And new hires can expect to flow any time they want. When they will actually flow - if at all - that’s likely a totally different subject.

Envoy and Piedmont are both approximately 10 year flows for new hires. Piedmont stopped taking planes due to staffing and is actually shrinking right now pilot group wise so it’s flow may increase by a few years as the number of people drop below the thresholds for increased flow #s. PSA is a bit longer.

If you’re looking for speed of flow it would go:
Envoy
Piedmont
PSA

If you’re looking for long term QOL while you have flow in your back pocket:
PSA
Envoy
Piedmont

If you’re looking for company that will most likely be around until you flow:
Envoy
PSA

Thanks.


filler

None.

The best “real” flow is your resume, background and network. It’s guaranteed no matter whose name is on your paycheck.

AA WO’s are the only ones with hard flows, but most average applicants will get on with a major well before their number is up if they try. The CPP, DGI and whatever else there is now are just tools for the recruiting teams.

Where does this 10 years come from? The union prediction is 8.8 years, and that’s the absolute worst case scenario prediction. First year it drops by 2:1 ratio.

What you fail to understand is that a projected flow is worth about as much as a projected upgrade. Things change. If you think the flow will continue as it is now for the next decade you're not very smart and haven't studied your history very well. At what point will the flow get throttled because it's taking more than you are able to hire? Do you think AA will just shrink you?

Just as relevant as talking about 10 years.
If we are talking about projections, talk about projections, not crap that you made up in your head.

Not defending the coin flip SSP / DGI, but I believe that Endeavor has actually sent more pilots to mainline Delta than Envoy to AA, at least looking back the last 5 years. 800+ Pilots. Similar sized airlines. Whether this will keep up especially with Delta’s hiring slowing down tremendously is anyone’s guess, and the flow is certainly better than the DGI.

This is a post of mine from another thread. AA is in some deep $hit concerning retirements in the next decade.
Seriously, where the hell is AA gonna find over 8300 pilots in the next 10 years?

A 2014 hire at envoy will flow in 6 years. After that it gets longer.

Someone hired today 8-10 years probably.


Piedmont has the fastest flow.

What everybody forgets is that the USAF cranks out about 1200 FW pilots a year and the Navy maybe a third of that. Now granted, not all of those people will go into the 121 world and they get distributed to ALL of the industry, not just AA, but they make a huge difference. More recently, you can add the military RTP aviators to the mix.

Anyone supposing the majors are going to get desperate next year or next decade is wrong. Opportunities will be improved - unless the economy tanks or oil hits 200 a barrel - but the top tier majors are not ever going to have to be begging anyone to come work for them.

I know they won't be begging, but they'll have to adjust/lower their standards/criteria significantly to hire those numbers.

Adjust? Yes. Significantly? No.

The military is begging for pilots now. Military pilots are now the minority at majors and as retirements keep increasing they are becoming more scarce. The number of pilots they’re currently putting out will definitely decrease, especially when you’re forced to stay in longer because they can’t recruit.

United and Delta are already committed to “street to hero” programs to fill future voids. They may not be “desperate” but they definitely know they will have to do something once retirements get rolling, such as lowering standards, most likely throwing the degree requirement away.

That’s a recruiting number, if you look deeper they are padding in about 70% of those pilots that were at one of the companies (colgan, Mesabah, pinnacle)that make up endeavor-prior to the formation of endeavor.

Since endeavor was formed they have not sent anywhere close to AA flow and they barely sent anyone all of 2018, they have probably sent less than 300 since the inception of Endeavor..

Keep dreaming.
The latest Southwest Expo has been rumored to be 75% military. JetBlue, United, Delta all hold veteran only job fairs. Classes are still 50% military plus. Hardly a minority anywhere. A smaller portion than 15 years ago? Sure.

The “street to hero” programs not only require a degree, but they are the highest qualified applicants at 141 university programs. Not exactly the bottom of the barrel.

Uh, where did I say 10 years? In my opinion none of it is relevant. It's all just recruiting carrots.

You quoted my post to someone who said 10 years.

OO alone hires at least 1500/year. AA will start pulling more off the street in the future and have no problem covering their attrition.

So that makes them MY words? Nice try.

I Wasn’t saying they were a majority, I said they were 1500 pilots a year (plus RTP) that I believed he was ignoring in his calculations.

Nor am I talking about the pilots the military is “begging for” right now. I’m not sure you understand the system. With the possible exception of Guard and Reservists, everyone has a 10 year active duty service commitment for UPT. Those numbers are already baked in, decided by the numbers actually trained over the last decade, and will (with certain limitations through stop-loss) become free agents over the next ten years as their individual ADSCs expire. Those people will all be able to vote with their feet.

I will grant you that, having given away the airspace and infrastructure needed for increasing training, the military won’t be able to ADD to what they are turning out much, but most of those won’t be free agents for ten years anyway.

That’s simply not true. Most of the movement I mentioned happened under the SSP which occurred after emergence from bankruptcy while the company was Endeavor. It has been almost 6 years now that “Endeavor” has been in existence as a wholly owned, over 5.5 with the Endeavor name. Yes, the people who moved to DL under that program were Pinnacle/Colgan/Mesaba originally, but that’s because hardly anyone was hired from 2011-2014 (and a somewhat faster trickle from 2009-2011). It makes sense that movement has slowed over the last 12 months due to the way the hiring programs were structured, the lapse in hiring 2009-2014, and Delta’s recent slow down in hiring. But the fact remains we had 800 Endeavor pilots move from Endeavor to Delta 2013-2018.

How and why? :eek:

Do they lose that many pilots yearly or are they expanding that quickly. That's a lot of pilots for a regional in one year.

I’d like a source for that number.
SkyWest is hiring 125/month?? And that’s 30% of their total pilot group per year. That sounds really hard to believe.

Envoy flowed around 1300 pilots from 2013-2018. Their relative age at flow was probably higher than Endeavor's but the hiring at Delta was much more robust during that time frame than at AA. Early SSP hires will probably fair much better in terms of relative seniority gains than the later ones.

Back to the subject at hand:

Here are some numbers from the APC profile page.

Retirements from 2019-2028:

AA - 8,302
DL - 6,483
UA - 5,163
Total - 19,948

That's just mandatory retirements. Throw in lost medicals, early retirements, and deaths.

Basically 20,000 pilots lost just at the Big 3. Throw in the competition for pilots from FDX, UPS and the LCC's, and it's gonna be interesting.

There will CLEARLY be opportunities, but 15,000 military fixed wing and quite a few RTP guys are going to be competing for those jobs as well as their ADSCs expire. Anyone who believes it won't be competitive is setting him/herself up for disappointment.

How many military pilots separate yearly average?

And the rotorheads that separate don't qualify for the majors until they fly for a regional for a while right?

1200-1500 fixed wing pilots a year leave the military usually. Actual numbers depend on pilot accessions 10-15 years ago minus training pipeline/medical attrition as well as folks who elect to stay in.

Thanks.

Much more than I thought.

Dreaming? This is happening now. Who do you think make up the predicted retirements? Military. When the military can’t put out as much as majors demand from expansion, plus retirement voids you get a minority very quickly.

The point is they started putting a lot of investment into these programs recently because they know they’ll have plenty of seats to fill. Requirements for ones that hold ATPs will go down.

Both. Filler