Originally Posted by Excargodog

I believe one should learn from the experiences of others without being held prisoner by those experiences, so my recommendations differ from many of those given above.

Yes, there can ALWAYS be Black Swan events. Those are by their very definition unpredictable. Yes there are economic cycles, although predicting those is fraught with hazard as well and nobody’s track record of success at doing so is very good. So concentrate on what is predictable.

The retirement of aging airline pilots is extremely predictable. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that the retirement age will be extended. It’s not likely, and if it does happen it is likely to be extended at most two years, but as it is, 25% of airline pilots retire before their 65th birthday anyway. Adding another two years to their eligibility to fly will not keep many of them flying and certainly not for very long. It would have nowhere near the effect of the age 65 rule.

Military fixed wing flying will be never - in our lifetimes - be what it was when the firmer military airline pilots now flying went to UPT. Military fixed wing training actually spiked toward the end of WWII with the Army Air Corps graduating just over 63,000 pilots in 1943. It stayed relatively high throughout Korea and Vietnam, but by the 1980s had cut back to “only” about 1500-2000 fixed wing pilots a year. Then came the end of the Cold War. Bases - including training bases - were closed and their associated military airspace was given up. They will never - barring a Black Swan event - get either back. In 1994 and 1995 the USAF was only producing 500 pilots a year. Today they ASPIRE to get back to 1500 pilots a year by 2023 but are currently only producing about 1200 FW pilots and that includes Reserve and Guard billets after decades of sub-1000 numbers. And it is those decades of sub-1000 number graduates that are now becoming eligible to leave active service, either afterreturing after their twenty years of service in their mid 40s or leaving in their mid 30s after their 10 year commitment for UPT, although many of those will also go to Reserve slots that will somewhat limit the hours they can fly for an airline. Oh, and the USAF is short 2000 pilots, so they are really trying to keep them around for 20, with some major bonuses. The point is, the absolute number of military FW pilots competing for airline pilot openings HAS NEVER BEEN LOWER and the ability of the military to increase that number has never been less, and even if they did there would be a ten year lag before we saw many of them competing for airline employment.

Now the above things are facts, not assumptions. They are demographics. There is no way for the USAF or Navy to turn back the clock to 2010 and increase their UPT output that year by 500 to magically have another 500 military FW guys whose ADSC is now up to be available next year. Next we look at the assumptions.

The belief that airline unions can maintain the seniority system is an assumption - one that many take so much for granted they don’t even consider it. But yes, it is only an assumption although it might take a Black Swan event like a national right to work law to make that happen. But if that were to happen it is SUCH a Black Swan event that any and all predictions of a future airline career become so uncertain that any attempt at prediction becomes impossible. So I’m just going with the assumption that seniority will stay a major factor in airline employment.

The next assumption is that the 2016-2018 shortage of regional pilots has pulled back into aviation the majority of those people who left aviation during the ‘lost decade’ who will ever come back to compete for airline jobs. Not all of them, but the majority. Some of those people are too successful at other careers to ever come back to a regional, it would simply be too much of a financial hit to go back to year one FO wages. Many have too much invested in current careers to change careers now. Many simply can’t bring themselves to risk sitting reserve in a crashpad for years even if they made it to the majors. They have simply moved on. So I’m assuming most - not all - of those really likely to return to flying have done so in the last two years and that the barriers to return for those who haven’t returned, be they economics or simply aircraft currency, will only get higher.

Now those two facts and those two assumptions paint a picture of a window of opportunity in airline hiring such as has never before been experienced by non-military aviators and a window of opportunity for seniority advancement within the junior major airline new hires that has never been experienced by anyone, civilian or military.

Now eventually this temporary shortfall will be filled, even if it takes ab initio hiring like is done in Europe, but even for that there is a lead time. You simply can’t acquire the hours and experience the major airlines are used to seeing in new hires in three or four years. In my pinion, this window will be open for a decade.

So my opinion (and yours may clearly differ because everyone is entitled to that) is that you want to do everything you can to get yourself on the leading edge of this current window of opportunity rather than the trailing edge, because there are going to be a LOT of new hires and you are forever going to be junior to anyone hired at your final airline before you.

So my opinion, FWIW, is to go somewhere that you can acquire hours and experience quickly. Someplace that trains well but quickly, where you can actually hold a line quickly, and where you can reliably LOG 70-80 hrs a month. Someplace that you can upgrade reasonably quickly as soon as you get 1000 SIC.

Those things matter and IMHO they are going to matter far more in the long run than whether or not you’d be willing to spend ten years someplace.

There are no ‘conservative” assumptions in regional flying. What was up ten years ago is down (or disappeared altogether) now. Wholly owneds are not immune to those risks. Many have been sold in the past, and all are just one prominent mishap away from being on the chopping block. Republic (which emerged from bankruptcy in May of 2017) is not immune to that volatility. SkyWest is not immune to that volatility either, although bigger is better if you want to play the “where would I want to get stuck for ten years” game. But what I’m suggesting is that you shouldn't Be playing that game at all.

Everybody has their own opinion. Mine is to strike while the iron is hot. Go where you’ll get the most experience the quickest. The opportunities in front of you will never be better than they are today.

Originally Posted by cfi127

Which airlines do you mean for those cities?

Originally Posted by cfi127

Definitely agree with you that as I delve into this further, Compass looks as thought they’re going down the ****ter. At this point I’m just trying to identify regionals that will get me a lot of hours, without being completely at the mercy of the company. That is my real priority. I appreciate the brutal honesty. Thanks for your input.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

I believe one should learn from the experiences of others without being held prisoner by those experiences, so my recommendations differ from many of those given above.

Yes, there can ALWAYS be Black Swan events. Those are by their very definition unpredictable. Yes there are economic cycles, although predicting those is fraught with hazard as well and nobody’s track record of success at doing so is very good. So concentrate on what is predictable.

The retirement of aging airline pilots is extremely predictable. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that the retirement age will be extended. It’s not likely, and if it does happen it is likely to be extended at most two years, but as it is, 25% of airline pilots retire before their 65th birthday anyway. Adding another two years to their eligibility to fly will not keep many of them flying and certainly not for very long. It would have nowhere near the effect of the age 65 rule.

Military fixed wing flying will be never - in our lifetimes - be what it was when the firmer military airline pilots now flying went to UPT. Military fixed wing training actually spiked toward the end of WWII with the Army Air Corps graduating just over 63,000 pilots in 1943. It stayed relatively high throughout Korea and Vietnam, but by the 1980s had cut back to “only” about 1500-2000 fixed wing pilots a year. Then came the end of the Cold War. Bases - including training bases - were closed and their associated military airspace was given up. They will never - barring a Black Swan event - get either back. In 1994 and 1995 the USAF was only producing 500 pilots a year. Today they ASPIRE to get back to 1500 pilots a year by 2023 but are currently only producing about 1200 FW pilots and that includes Reserve and Guard billets after decades of sub-1000 numbers. And it is those decades of sub-1000 number graduates that are now becoming eligible to leave active service, either afterreturing after their twenty years of service in their mid 40s or leaving in their mid 30s after their 10 year commitment for UPT, although many of those will also go to Reserve slots that will somewhat limit the hours they can fly for an airline. Oh, and the USAF is short 2000 pilots, so they are really trying to keep them around for 20, with some major bonuses. The point is, the absolute number of military FW pilots competing for airline pilot openings HAS NEVER BEEN LOWER and the ability of the military to increase that number has never been less, and even if they did there would be a ten year lag before we saw many of them competing for airline employment.

Now the above things are facts, not assumptions. They are demographics. There is no way for the USAF or Navy to turn back the clock to 2010 and increase their UPT output that year by 500 to magically have another 500 military FW guys whose ADSC is now up to be available next year. Next we look at the assumptions.

The belief that airline unions can maintain the seniority system is an assumption - one that many take so much for granted they don’t even consider it. But yes, it is only an assumption although it might take a Black Swan event like a national right to work law to make that happen. But if that were to happen it is SUCH a Black Swan event that any and all predictions of a future airline career become so uncertain that any attempt at prediction becomes impossible. So I’m just going with the assumption that seniority will stay a major factor in airline employment.

The next assumption is that the 2016-2018 shortage of regional pilots has pulled back into aviation the majority of those people who left aviation during the ‘lost decade’ who will ever come back to compete for airline jobs. Not all of them, but the majority. Some of those people are too successful at other careers to ever come back to a regional, it would simply be too much of a financial hit to go back to year one FO wages. Many have too much invested in current careers to change careers now. Many simply can’t bring themselves to risk sitting reserve in a crashpad for years even if they made it to the majors. They have simply moved on. So I’m assuming most - not all - of those really likely to return to flying have done so in the last two years and that the barriers to return for those who haven’t returned, be they economics or simply aircraft currency, will only get higher.

Now those two facts and those two assumptions paint a picture of a window of opportunity in airline hiring such as has never before been experienced by non-military aviators and a window of opportunity for seniority advancement within the junior major airline new hires that has never been experienced by anyone, civilian or military.

Now eventually this temporary shortfall will be filled, even if it takes ab initio hiring like is done in Europe, but even for that there is a lead time. You simply can’t acquire the hours and experience the major airlines are used to seeing in new hires in three or four years. In my pinion, this window will be open for a decade.

So my opinion (and yours may clearly differ because everyone is entitled to that) is that you want to do everything you can to get yourself on the leading edge of this current window of opportunity rather than the trailing edge, because there are going to be a LOT of new hires and you are forever going to be junior to anyone hired at your final airline before you.

So my opinion, FWIW, is to go somewhere that you can acquire hours and experience quickly. Someplace that trains well but quickly, where you can actually hold a line quickly, and where you can reliably LOG 70-80 hrs a month. Someplace that you can upgrade reasonably quickly as soon as you get 1000 SIC.

Those things matter and IMHO they are going to matter far more in the long run than whether or not you’d be willing to spend ten years someplace.

There are no ‘conservative” assumptions in regional flying. What was up ten years ago is down (or disappeared altogether) now. Wholly owneds are not immune to those risks. Many have been sold in the past, and all are just one prominent mishap away from being on the chopping block. Republic (which emerged from bankruptcy in May of 2017) is not immune to that volatility. SkyWest is not immune to that volatility either, although bigger is better if you want to play the “where would I want to get stuck for ten years” game. But what I’m suggesting is that you shouldn't Be playing that game at all.

Everybody has their own opinion. Mine is to strike while the iron is hot. Go where you’ll get the most experience the quickest. The opportunities in front of you will never be better than they are today.