I believe the math that is done for the predictions, is based on historical attrition rates. So there's not much reason to believe that, unless something changes (entirely possible), it isn't fairly close to being right.

Lol hey by all means you can believe whatever you like, it won't hurt my feelings. The ACTUAL attrition numbers show a pilot hired in September 2019 can expect to flow 10.3 years later.

We've nearly doubled in size in 3 years and the flow has barely increased, so yeah 10 years is pretty reasonable.

That flow math is done each month using a moving average, both annual and three months. It's a very accurate snapshot of where things stand, assuming no change to the flow rate. Banking on the flow increasing soon, as is rumored, is counting your chickens before they hatch. It's also a disservice to someone that is trying to make a comparison between job offers.

Anticipating that the flow will increase is similar to anticipating that wage increase are coming. Until it's been signed and applied, don't go spending that extra money.

Most likely flow will eventually go up. When that will be is anyone’s guess. But as it stands right now if flow stays the same... less than 10 years to flow for a new hire is wishful thinking. Yes we might lose 25 a month but those 25 aren’t always senior to you. Especially as you move up the list. I just broke top 300 and for the last year I’ve only been moving up about 0-3 numbers besides the 10/month that flow.