I don’t know why people spend the time to crunch these numbers when there are too many variables that would make significant changes. The moral of the story is get your apps filled out and network and maybe good things will come to you!

 

Don’t forget Alaska which I think is around 350, which should just about cover attrition (not retirements)

 

There is a recession fast approaching

 

How fast is fast because alarmist have been saying that for the past 4 years now.

 

On a average a US recession lasts 18 months. If it does come soon it will finish way before the retirements do.

 

You can well bet the MAX fix is quick fast and in a hurry on its way. That, coupled with the planned retirements is gonna be a shocker to some of these bottom feeder dogsh!t carriers.

I’m still laughing.

And

 

I fly international cargo, which is usually a good first indication. Block hours are way down, sitting a lot more. Combination of tariffs, Hong Kong protests, and just a general global cooling of manufacturing demand. I hope I am wrong.

 

See, my point is this. And this has become easy to spot since internet message boards became common place in the late 90s. Alarmist will scream "a recession is coming" every year, heck even every month. They will be wrong month after month, even year after year. Then one day it comes, as it always does because the economy is cyclical, and they will say "see I told you so" in their smug little alarmist face.

Same thing has been going on in these massage boards. You can go back in look, for the past 5 years this recession was supposed to be just around the corner. Just weeks or months away. There were signs out there. A lull in the housing market, interest rates were changing, Sears was going out of business. blah blah blah blah.

But you know what, I am going to say it too. The Recession is coming. Sometime within the next month to 10 years. And I will be right too. *smug face*

 

I do believe that recessions are all human manipulated to trigger. People are poised to profit either way. I am selfishly waiting for a housing bubble to burst to acquire rental properties, and those with power and influence are preparing for it before they pull the trigger on it.

 

Look for the Dow to go north of 30,000 about the last quarter of next year
And see what that will do to the retirement numbers.

Does that suit you Tom?