Yep. See how easy it was to make an economic forecast without engaging in partisan politics? Well done.

 

You know, back when the Dow was sitting at 12-14 thousand, a 2000 point rise would have been...

Today, at 28,000, a one year gain of 2000 is only about 7%, which is slightly LESS than the long term average.

Ah, the simple pleasures of passive investing in index funds and reinvesting dividends...

 

My portfolio is like

WOOO WoOOOO!!!!!!!

 

Of course there is, and every bear market is followed by a bull market. The economy always has been, and always will be cyclical. Unless we have another extreme impact to the industry, like what happened after deregulation or 9/11, global aviation and demand for pilots will chug along. Those already at well paying jobs will make more, and those wanting to gain employment will have ample opportunities.

 

Bringing this thread back to life:

Boeing has so many undelivered MAX’s they are being forced to park them in their employee parking lots.



At the same time, airlines are pushing back the date they are anticipating recertification:



Between the aircraft that were already delivered to US airlines and were parked and the many additional aircraft that WOULD HAVE been delivered by now, we have probably 150 - 200 JUST SITTING THERE that, were they flying would employ another 2000-3000 pilots. Ok, some of those are replacements for 717s and MDs that will be retiring, but even so.

This is going to cause a huge impact on major hiring and training once the aircraft is recertifications. And coming on top of the anticipated age related retirements, I would expect rather massive movement at (and to) the majors when the MAX eventually does get airborne again.

 

ALPAs daily digest email, said Trump heard they are shutting down Max production all together.

A conspiracy theory could be, full Max shutdown to be announced alongside new narrow body.

 

Tinfoil hat material. Economically impossible.

It would take years to get a new NB designed, tested, and approved, much less in full production. Probably 5-6 years if they went full manhattan project, and even then current politics will prevent the FAA from being railroaded into any sort of "expedited" approval.

Many airlines would suffer near-catastrophic issues due to loss of scheduled growth/replacement planes.

BA would likely go BK with zero NB income for several years. 73 is huge source of income for them.

Now what you might see is the NMA quickly morph into a new NB design, with BA offering customers with future max delivery slots options to convert those into the new NB, possibly even taking trade-ins on slightly used max's. They need to somehow keep their current max backlog buying planes until the new model is up and running.

But there are reasons not to do that, there are a variety of new technologies in the works which should be available a few years down the road and should greatly increase fuel efficiency (reducing cost and carbon). If you blow billions on a clean-sheet design right now, then you'll need many years of production to recoup the R&D investment. But the competition may well be in a position to offer radically improved planes in about a decade. Right now is potentially (likely?) very bad timing to invest in a clean-sheet NB design with mostly legacy technology.

 

Simple solution, order Airbuses, maybe even look at the used market for some 757's that haven't been converted to freighters yet.

 

75's are pretty much all accounted for (at least any that you'd have a hope of restoring to 121 standards), they are popular in their niche.

 

Backlog for new orders is at least six years, in part thanks to Max.