I have no idea, but during the informational conference calls they were saying they only had something like 200 cpp folks and they wanted to get all of them over to United in something like 6 months or less. I could be wrong though.

The AA flows are superior to Aviate because they are guarantees. If you could go to an AA wholly owned with a guarantee of flowing in 5-10 years, or go to a UAX carrier with only a chance of being selected into Aviate and then flowing in 5-10 years, who would you choose?

If they don’t get their timeline significantly shorter than an AA flow no one will think they’re legitimate

They’ll get it down to 2 years. With them selecting what we think is so few people so far the small pool will go to UA over the next year meanwhile the new hires selected will wait to get their time and be at the top of the list by the time they Qualify.

Aviate FIFO list
 

Anyone know the actual numbers per carrier, accepted into Aviate so far? First wave?

This is a really hard question to answer with the absence of any hard data from UAL and participating carriers/unions. I wont let that stop me from trying though!

Based on data collected by a buddy of mine that was compared to our union's data (the accuracy of which depends on Aviate participants actually emailing results to the union), XJT has approximately 65-70 successful Aviate participants TOTAL in 1st and 2nd waves. Assuming each carrier has a similar pass rate, their should be around 130-140 more successful participants from the other 3 participating carriers based on comparison of their # of pilots to XJT. That equates to 195-210 participants from 1st 2 waves. From what I have heard, it seems the 1st 2 deciles of the FIFO list are CPP participants who have yet to transition. That leaves the 195-210 Aviate participants occupying deciles 3-10. That means approximately 24-26 people per decile. If(and it's a HUGE if) these #s are accurate, then the following would be a general idea of what # you are in FIFO list:
Dec 1: 1-25 CPP
Dec 2: 26-50 CPP
Dec 3: 51-75
Dec 4: 76-100
Dec 5: 101-125
Dec 6: 126-150
Dec 7: 151-175
Dec 8: 176-200
Dec 9: 201-225
Dec 10: 226-250

Look, I know these #s are wrong but by how much is the question. The margin of error is large and if we share some data we can narrow it down. I don't represent the XJT union in any capacity and definitely do not stand by the accuracy of these #s. Maybe we can all get some dialogue going to share what we do know(which isn't much).

Remember Awac and CommuteAir have much smaller pilot groups to pull from. And Mesa effectively only has half the pilot group eligible. So I assume the other groups have half the Aviate pilots Expressjet has if the pass rate is near the same across airlines.

Interesting, that’s what some of my friends at my carrier (Mesa) have thought too. Very hard getting concrete numbers, but we think it’s 40ish that have passed the interview, which makes our decile a bit smaller.....if it’s only Mesa. So, is the fifo list just for your carrier, or is it everyone on one list?

Oh, and at Mesa we have had some of the pilots on the American side pass the interview. They will be on the list a long time since they’ll have to get on the United side to start building the requirement time.

The FIFO list is one big list with pilots from all the participating carriers. I did interview with some Mesa guys who are DFW based and admitted they wouldn't be eligible to transition anytime soon. That is one of the many factors that blur the already muddied waters of Aviate.

Wow two years and list still hasn’t came out.

not ever going to come out just your decile.