Possible signs of improving job market?
 

Possible sign of improving job market coming sooner than expected?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/pilot-shortage-prompts-rare-flight-cancellations-at-delta-over-thanksgiving-break.html"Delta Air Lines canceled hundreds of flights over the Thanksgiving break as it struggled with staffing shortages during the busiest travel week since the coronavirus pandemic began.

While demand remains less than half of last year’s levels because of the pandemic, Transportation Security Administration airport screenings rose above 1 million on Sunday and Wednesday, the highest in more than eight months.

On Thursday, Delta canceled about 300 flights, roughly 20% of its schedule and around 160 flights on Friday, around 9% of the schedule.

No

Poor staffing/planning for that week, maybe.

Pilot shortage? No

Have to agree, a pilot shortage isn’t something we will see for a long time. This was just bad planning as stated above.

Probably. In the old days if you maybe had a little sniffle coming on you'd be reluctant to call in sick over a holiday. Today nobody feels any guilt. Hungover? *Might* actually be a touch of covid, better bang out. Makes what used to be a hard decision very easy.

Sick leave usage is below the historical norm. The company put out a letter over a month ago stating they would be short over the holidays. Huge surplus of pilots currently but between the early retirement program, fleet simplification and furlough prep they have thousands of pilots in the wrong seats.

"Pilot shortage." :rolleyes:

There was enough of a downward pressure on hiring minimums that would have likely resulted in near-historically short spans of time for a significant number of pilots going from a regional job to a major carrier had COVID or another 'black swan' event not occurred. We saw glimpses of this leading up to March 2020 / pre-COVID; everyone was hiring. All that momentum is now lost.

The industry will recover, but I'm afraid there may be more hurt along the way before things truly stabilize. Despite some touting record stock market highs and conflating it with an economic recovery, the stock market is not the economy. Business closures and jobless claims are still alarmingly high. Predicting the future is tough, but if I were to make an educated guess, we're not going to see the same time of boom in hiring we saw in 2016-2019 for "awhile" (5-10 years, maybe longer) and recovery will be fragmented depending on the health of various market segments.

The good news is that there will always be opportunity, however, it will be highly competitive; it's all about positioning one's self to capitalize on opportunities as they present themselves. Positioning = job credentials, networking, and timing. What's the statement about luck? “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" or something like that.

Unless you’re 10 years or less from retirement, this is just a speed bump in your career. There will be hiring sometime in 2021 and back to normal pilot shortage soon after. There’s no question the industry will recover, the only question is when.

if it takes 10 years and involves bankruptcies by all the majors that’s not going to just be a speedbump

The stock market is forward looking. People investing are looking ahead, in 3 - 30 months, where the economy will be.

Leading, not co-current with sales. Unemployment rates are lagging. Companies do not hire until sales pick up and the cannot cover with OT. It always has been this way, is today, and always will be into the future.

That is not me predicting it. It is what my large, successful investment manager (and similar investment managers) have said for years. They have shown the data that demonstrates it as fact.

There has never been a pilot shortage, and never will be particularly at the majors. Pilots were coming out of the woodwork for bonuses. Let’s hope we never see those again - they need to be rolled into pay rates.