Speculation on the future of the regionals
 

Curious to know if anyone has any theories on the future of the regionals (and airline industry as a whole) given the current hiring environment. It seems like the majors are decimating the regional pilot workforce with no signs of stopping anytime soon. Could we see regionals shrink considerably in the next couple years?

The future of regionals…
 

Toast...got it. Get out or get cooked

sigh

filler

Old worn out 50's burning $100+ oil? That's not sustainable, so I guess it depends on how long this drags out for.

I think the next 2-3ish years will be very telling of the regional industry. In my opinion, regionals will have to start offering current LCC compensation package to stay relevant or risk folding. The legacy partners will be slow to allow such compensation packages, but it’s still slightly cheaper than bringing everyone in-house. Time will tell.

The coming recession/depression is about to buy the regionals a few more years.

Inflation
Oil price
Russia
FED interest rate policy mismanagement

The hit on American’s discretionary income is about to bring all of the fun to a screeching halt.

This is the first post I’ve read that I agree with

How will those things buy time for inefficient regional fleets? Wouldn’t those issues hit smaller markets equally hard, lower demand, and make the decision to park planes already facing retirement that much easier? If a major recession and high fuel prices are on the way, wouldn’t the legacy carriers use their near term deliveries to focus on improving efficiency by replacing older jets, drop low yielding markets, and then use future deliveries for growth when demand returns? Economic forces will definitely affect hiring at all levels, but expensive fuel and lowered passenger demand due to less discretionary income won’t do the regionals any favors. It won’t be good for anyone.

We could have made the same argument for COVID and yet it worked out the opposite. Also, covid exacerbated the population shift and now airlines can't stop service from the traditional smaller markets.