Look for the Delta 135's to go away next year (official already, buyers found for all aircraft), and the American 140's to go away within 3 years (based on eagle's ability to cover the flying). That will leave 8 US Airways 145's and 7 United 145's which can easily disappear during the annual reductions in flying after summer (probably in 2008). The Delta 145 and Continental 145 fleets are large enough that any reduction will take time... I would guess that any 145's reduced from the Untied, Airways, and Delta sides would be sent to the Continental side to replace the CRJs as soon as those leases expire. The Delta and Continental flying is still profitable for CHQ, and will likely remain for a few more years to help finance new 70+ seaters. Bedford has definitely said he wants out of the 50 seat market, but I don't think he would go so far as to sell off the CHQ certificate just to rid himself of the 145. The 145s are his leverage for negotiating addition 170/175's, and I believe that the rate of acquisition of new 170s will dictate the rate at which the 145s disappear.

Originally the 30 175's ordered were for USAirways flying, and were to replace 20 145's for a net growth of 10 aircraft on the Republic side. Then Frontier announced we would fly 17 170's for them, four of which would be coming from spare aircraft on the Shuttle America certificate... net growth 13 170's. Soon it was announced that eight 170's from the 28 original (Mid Atlantic) USairways 170's would be sent to frontier and 8 new 175's would replace these 170's on the Airways side for a net change of 0 in the Airways fleet. The purchase of the 8 new 175's was never announced, so you may infer that 8 of the 13 175's mentioned in the press release were already expected, leaving 5 new 175's in the press release that have no announced home yet. Or, perhaps all 13 are new (the 8 needed for airways were just converted options not worthy of a press release) and are headed somewhere yet to be named.

For what it is worth, Frontier has yet to come near 17 airplanes in service, and only 11 of the 38 175's for Airways have been delivered, so a new aircraft order for either of these two code shares is unlikely. United has not expressed a real interest in growing the 170 platform, and scope would limit new aircraft to 170's not 175s. That leaves Delta, who is growing their large RJ portfolio, and with whom we expect an increase in flying on large RJs as a trade for the loss of the 135's (Bedford's goal has always been 1:1... 13 175's for 15 135's would probably be an acceptable trade in his eyes).

Of course, Compass hasn't started flying 175s yet, and we all know how much Bedford likes buying up wholly owned subsidiaries...

 

Bryan Bedford stated that he wants out of the 50 seat market completely.. this is a confirmed fact like Ballast said. He also believes that we are some how going to fly the E-jets for CAL.

 

If that was the case it would be without the appreciation of CAL pilots................... The only people flying an "E" jet should be a CAL pilot not a chq pilot for $70.00 an hour

 

Only way an E-Jet will fly for CAL would be if CAL ALPA folded on scope...and I seriously doubt they are going to do that since they haven't done it already.

 

I don't know how he plans on making it happen.. I dont see how it would.. just saying what he is planning

 

1st yr FO pay is close.. sadly

 

I thought our Connection contract runs through 2013. Are we trying to get out early?

 

BB has said he WANTS to fly all 70 seats...not that it will ever happen for CAL or AA. But ideally...he wants too...

 

I get the impression that Bedford would like to get out of the American contract early, although I am sure STL would still remain open as a base with one overnighting Continental plane and 40 lines per seat, and just a few deadheads to start your trip off...

Bedford really wants those 70 seaters for Continental. I am not sure what gave him the idea that CAL pilots would ever relax their scope, but he has never seemed the type to make business decisions on faith alone (despite his weekly updates). Who knows, maybe that is what CEOs do when they are bored.

 

You would be correct. We all here at RAH do not know how BB plans to pull off 170s for CAL. My opinion, this this a diversion from what he really wants to do.