Future of the airline industry and regional hiring frenzy
10-15-2007 | 05:54 AM
#81
Self Employed.
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 7,120
Likes: 0
From: Corporate Pilot
Future
Regional hiring should continue for a little while longer, however the good jobs will continue to be difficult to get.
Over the next 15 years the majors will need 1500 to 2000 pilots per year to replace retirements. Each year there are almost 10,000 new commercial pilots issued and over 2500 fixed wing military pilots trained.
It is possible to get on with the majors however the odds are slim and will continue to be so. A more likely destination is as a career regional pilot, fly overseas or to spend a career as a LCC pilot.
In any case pay industry wide is half of what it was 15 to 20 years ago and seems destined to halve again in the future. Work rules continue to decline in the shadow of slimming profit margins.
The proliferation of regional airlines means that there are fewer of the better jobs. Minimums at the regional level are going down while they continue to go up at better LCC and Major airlines. At any one time it is common for a major airline to have 10,000 to 20,000 qualified applications on file for less than 500 possible jobs per year.
UPS, I have read, has applications from over 1000 sitting RJ Captains with more than 1000 hours of part 121 PIC. In addition they also have military, LCC large jet captains, corporate jet captains and turbo-prop captains.
Regional jobs will be easy to get for a little while however the odds are that it will be most pilots first and last airline job. The pay and working conditions are far worse than in past generations however if you don't know what life was like for pilots in the past then perhaps you will not care.
My personal belief is that most regional pilots reach the left seat and acquire their 1000PIC only to come to the slow realisation that they are still a long way from a good job and quit to pursue new careers outside of aviation.
Most of the hiring at the regional level is from growth, a few go on the the majors and the rest from attrition of pilots who have given up. The skills and determination to make it to the left seat of a regional airliner are worth much more to the outside world.
SkyHigh
Over the next 15 years the majors will need 1500 to 2000 pilots per year to replace retirements. Each year there are almost 10,000 new commercial pilots issued and over 2500 fixed wing military pilots trained.
It is possible to get on with the majors however the odds are slim and will continue to be so. A more likely destination is as a career regional pilot, fly overseas or to spend a career as a LCC pilot.
In any case pay industry wide is half of what it was 15 to 20 years ago and seems destined to halve again in the future. Work rules continue to decline in the shadow of slimming profit margins.
The proliferation of regional airlines means that there are fewer of the better jobs. Minimums at the regional level are going down while they continue to go up at better LCC and Major airlines. At any one time it is common for a major airline to have 10,000 to 20,000 qualified applications on file for less than 500 possible jobs per year.
UPS, I have read, has applications from over 1000 sitting RJ Captains with more than 1000 hours of part 121 PIC. In addition they also have military, LCC large jet captains, corporate jet captains and turbo-prop captains.
Regional jobs will be easy to get for a little while however the odds are that it will be most pilots first and last airline job. The pay and working conditions are far worse than in past generations however if you don't know what life was like for pilots in the past then perhaps you will not care.
My personal belief is that most regional pilots reach the left seat and acquire their 1000PIC only to come to the slow realisation that they are still a long way from a good job and quit to pursue new careers outside of aviation.
Most of the hiring at the regional level is from growth, a few go on the the majors and the rest from attrition of pilots who have given up. The skills and determination to make it to the left seat of a regional airliner are worth much more to the outside world.
SkyHigh
10-15-2007 | 06:05 AM
#82
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,285
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From: Student Pilot
I agree with most of the previous posters. The airlines will always be here. Get some good training, and build some good time - you will have some of the most fun you will ever have in an airplane. That doesn't mean it will take 5 or more years. I was at an airline within 3 years of getting my instrument rating, and had more than enough flight time to go wherever I wanted (regional wise).
Also, if you are not at a regional by the time you are 27 - who cares? There are PLENTY of new hires that are over 27.
Also, if you are not at a regional by the time you are 27 - who cares? There are PLENTY of new hires that are over 27.
I agree as long as you have the luxury of time on your side. If I were 27 again, yeah...I would do the FBO thing. However, since me and a few hundred or maybe even thousands of "atpwannabes" (no pun intended), who are in their late 30's to early & mid 40's...IMHO, I believe the flight academy/school is the way to go. Choose wisely though as to which academy/school you wish to attend.
atp
10-15-2007 | 07:06 AM
#83
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 203
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From: Sabre 60
Rickdb, atpwannabe, and anyone else considering ATP,
Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO. The nice part about training at an FBO is you can train at ANY pace you want. So if you want to get your instrument-MEI in 89 days, you can do that (faster than ATP). If you want to get your instrument-MEI in 120, you can do that. 10 months, you can do that. Want to take a weekend off to go skiing? Want to take a weekend off to spend with your wife/family/gf/friends, you can do that. At an FBO, you set the pace. There is nothing saying you cannot go as fast or FASTER than training at ATP. The pace is up to you.
When you ask an FBO how long it takes to go from private to MEI, they will quote you how long people usually take to get those ratings, going at their OWN pace. That is why there is this vicious rumor that training at an FBO is slow. Honestly, if you want to fly two 1.5 hour lessons each day (3hrs a day), you can go private to MEI in 90 days (as opposed to the 150 days as quoted by ATP). Personally I think both of these are way too fast. While I realize you are a little older, take your time with flight training. You are paying tens of thousands of dollars for it, you should at least LEARN IT. If you do the 150 day fast track at ATP, you will not learn everything that you should. And this will come back to haunt you at some point in your flying career.
If you train at a local FBO instead of ATP, you will save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. My estimate for training at a local FBO with reasonable prices is about $35,000. You don't believe me, then send me some rates at your local FBO (1980 C-152, C-172, Piper Warrior, some complex airplane, Piper Seminole, or related aircraft), tell me how much instructor costs, tell me what the monthly dues/joining fees are, and I will give you a darn good estimate. And I believe it will be close to $35,000. At ATP, you will pay $64,000 for the EXACT SAME flight training. That's an extra $29,000 you don't have to spend. Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.
Don't throw away $29,000 extra to get the same flight training you can receive at a local FBO.
Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO. The nice part about training at an FBO is you can train at ANY pace you want. So if you want to get your instrument-MEI in 89 days, you can do that (faster than ATP). If you want to get your instrument-MEI in 120, you can do that. 10 months, you can do that. Want to take a weekend off to go skiing? Want to take a weekend off to spend with your wife/family/gf/friends, you can do that. At an FBO, you set the pace. There is nothing saying you cannot go as fast or FASTER than training at ATP. The pace is up to you.
When you ask an FBO how long it takes to go from private to MEI, they will quote you how long people usually take to get those ratings, going at their OWN pace. That is why there is this vicious rumor that training at an FBO is slow. Honestly, if you want to fly two 1.5 hour lessons each day (3hrs a day), you can go private to MEI in 90 days (as opposed to the 150 days as quoted by ATP). Personally I think both of these are way too fast. While I realize you are a little older, take your time with flight training. You are paying tens of thousands of dollars for it, you should at least LEARN IT. If you do the 150 day fast track at ATP, you will not learn everything that you should. And this will come back to haunt you at some point in your flying career.
If you train at a local FBO instead of ATP, you will save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. My estimate for training at a local FBO with reasonable prices is about $35,000. You don't believe me, then send me some rates at your local FBO (1980 C-152, C-172, Piper Warrior, some complex airplane, Piper Seminole, or related aircraft), tell me how much instructor costs, tell me what the monthly dues/joining fees are, and I will give you a darn good estimate. And I believe it will be close to $35,000. At ATP, you will pay $64,000 for the EXACT SAME flight training. That's an extra $29,000 you don't have to spend. Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.
Don't throw away $29,000 extra to get the same flight training you can receive at a local FBO.
Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
10-15-2007 | 08:08 AM
#84
Big Poppa
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 613
Likes: 0
Rickdb, atpwannabe, and anyone else considering ATP,
Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO. The nice part about training at an FBO is you can train at ANY pace you want. So if you want to get your instrument-MEI in 89 days, you can do that (faster than ATP). If you want to get your instrument-MEI in 120, you can do that. 10 months, you can do that. Want to take a weekend off to go skiing? Want to take a weekend off to spend with your wife/family/gf/friends, you can do that. At an FBO, you set the pace. There is nothing saying you cannot go as fast or FASTER than training at ATP. The pace is up to you.
When you ask an FBO how long it takes to go from private to MEI, they will quote you how long people usually take to get those ratings, going at their OWN pace. That is why there is this vicious rumor that training at an FBO is slow. Honestly, if you want to fly two 1.5 hour lessons each day (3hrs a day), you can go private to MEI in 90 days (as opposed to the 150 days as quoted by ATP). Personally I think both of these are way too fast. While I realize you are a little older, take your time with flight training. You are paying tens of thousands of dollars for it, you should at least LEARN IT. If you do the 150 day fast track at ATP, you will not learn everything that you should. And this will come back to haunt you at some point in your flying career.
If you train at a local FBO instead of ATP, you will save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. My estimate for training at a local FBO with reasonable prices is about $35,000. You don't believe me, then send me some rates at your local FBO (1980 C-152, C-172, Piper Warrior, some complex airplane, Piper Seminole, or related aircraft), tell me how much instructor costs, tell me what the monthly dues/joining fees are, and I will give you a darn good estimate. And I believe it will be close to $35,000. At ATP, you will pay $64,000 for the EXACT SAME flight training. That's an extra $29,000 you don't have to spend. Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.
Don't throw away $29,000 extra to get the same flight training you can receive at a local FBO.
Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO. The nice part about training at an FBO is you can train at ANY pace you want. So if you want to get your instrument-MEI in 89 days, you can do that (faster than ATP). If you want to get your instrument-MEI in 120, you can do that. 10 months, you can do that. Want to take a weekend off to go skiing? Want to take a weekend off to spend with your wife/family/gf/friends, you can do that. At an FBO, you set the pace. There is nothing saying you cannot go as fast or FASTER than training at ATP. The pace is up to you.
When you ask an FBO how long it takes to go from private to MEI, they will quote you how long people usually take to get those ratings, going at their OWN pace. That is why there is this vicious rumor that training at an FBO is slow. Honestly, if you want to fly two 1.5 hour lessons each day (3hrs a day), you can go private to MEI in 90 days (as opposed to the 150 days as quoted by ATP). Personally I think both of these are way too fast. While I realize you are a little older, take your time with flight training. You are paying tens of thousands of dollars for it, you should at least LEARN IT. If you do the 150 day fast track at ATP, you will not learn everything that you should. And this will come back to haunt you at some point in your flying career.
If you train at a local FBO instead of ATP, you will save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. My estimate for training at a local FBO with reasonable prices is about $35,000. You don't believe me, then send me some rates at your local FBO (1980 C-152, C-172, Piper Warrior, some complex airplane, Piper Seminole, or related aircraft), tell me how much instructor costs, tell me what the monthly dues/joining fees are, and I will give you a darn good estimate. And I believe it will be close to $35,000. At ATP, you will pay $64,000 for the EXACT SAME flight training. That's an extra $29,000 you don't have to spend. Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.
Don't throw away $29,000 extra to get the same flight training you can receive at a local FBO.
Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
10-15-2007 | 09:03 AM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 478
Likes: 0
I totally disagree with you about the time frame. It is almost impossible to get all those ratings at an FBO in even remotely close to 90 days. (private not included) I have tried it. In order to save all that money, you need safety pilots, and safety pilots are a pain in the you know what to find on a regular basis, unless you get totally lucky and find others in the same boat that have the same time frames as you. Otherwise, you need to pay an instructor to ride with you to get the hood time. Plus if you look at the cost and effort it takes to build ME time, ATP's prices aren't really all that bad. I'm not trying to advertise for them, and I know it really is alot of money to pay, but for the structure and ME time, it's really not THAT bad. flight training is expensive no matter where you go.
I know I will get flamed for this, but here is goes:
The best part about flying at a local FBO is that odds are you will be flying with a quality CFI who got his/her ratings over a long period of time and has some good experience to offer. At ATP odds are you will be flying with somebody with very little experience, and is ONLY there to build time so that he/she can get in the right seat of a sexy regional jet. He/she doesn't really care about the quality of instruction that he/she is providing.
At the flight school I worked at, many of the students who wanted to blow through their ratings did it with some of our very best career CFIs. Our philosophy was that we need our very best CFIs to teach people that fast. One of them was 70 years old and has been a CFI since he was 19 and is a retired airshow pilot. Try finding somebody with that experience level at ATP - you won't. Flame away
10-15-2007 | 09:07 AM
#86
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 4,357
Likes: 0
From: UPS 757/767 Capt ONT
I have no doubt that SOME FBO's can train as fast as ATP, and at less cost, agreeing with Aerospacepilot's post. You'd need to have a large fleet that included two or three twins, a large pool of CFI's, and a place where there will be no weather delays.
There is nothing special about how ATP operates, they are a big part 61 flight academy using 172's and Seminoles and have figured out how to get people to min standards as fast as possible. What they do at ATP could be done anyplace that can put a heavy emphasis on multi time.
The ATP owners fly around in a Citation giving "high altitude endorsements", they aren't stupid, but somebody is paying for that...
"The best part about flying at a local FBO is that odds are you will be flying with a quality CFI who got his/her ratings over a long period of time and has some good experience to offer. At ATP odds are you will be flying with somebody with very little experience..."
I agree. If I was at an FBO, I'd seek out a guy with some time. At ATP, the guy might be a gold seal but he still has never seen life outside the academy and has only been a CFI for three months. He also might be a guy who was a PPL 90 days ago.
That's my problem with ACPP. It's one thing to accelerate your training. It's another to take that and jump into instructing hard core. The FAA licenses and ratings are very much a license to learn. You can't expect much from a CFI who just got his "licenses to learn" in 90 days and now is your CFI.
There is nothing wrong with accelerated training. The problem comes when you don't take the time, between ratings, to use them, and gain experience from real world situations.
There is nothing special about how ATP operates, they are a big part 61 flight academy using 172's and Seminoles and have figured out how to get people to min standards as fast as possible. What they do at ATP could be done anyplace that can put a heavy emphasis on multi time.
The ATP owners fly around in a Citation giving "high altitude endorsements", they aren't stupid, but somebody is paying for that...
"The best part about flying at a local FBO is that odds are you will be flying with a quality CFI who got his/her ratings over a long period of time and has some good experience to offer. At ATP odds are you will be flying with somebody with very little experience..."
I agree. If I was at an FBO, I'd seek out a guy with some time. At ATP, the guy might be a gold seal but he still has never seen life outside the academy and has only been a CFI for three months. He also might be a guy who was a PPL 90 days ago.
That's my problem with ACPP. It's one thing to accelerate your training. It's another to take that and jump into instructing hard core. The FAA licenses and ratings are very much a license to learn. You can't expect much from a CFI who just got his "licenses to learn" in 90 days and now is your CFI.
There is nothing wrong with accelerated training. The problem comes when you don't take the time, between ratings, to use them, and gain experience from real world situations.
10-15-2007 | 09:13 AM
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,285
Likes: 0
From: Student Pilot
Rickdb, atpwannabe, and anyone else considering ATP,
Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO...
...Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.
......Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO...
...Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.
......Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
aerospacepilot:
First, let me point out that my post addressed the fact that this young man had the luxury of time/age on his side. I believe he's in his late 20's.
Personally, I would have considered an FBO, however, if I'm not able fly when I'm ready or an a/c is not available, then we've got a problem. On the other hand, I'm walking in the door of ATP with a Cashier's Check for the entire amount. They will deliver what they promised and I'm eager to get started.
Now in terms of being able to keep up with the rapid ground school & flight lesson plans...well, if I attended & graduated from ERAU ('82-'87) back when Spring Break was SPRING BREAK
...then I shouldn't have a problem @ ATP. Dedication, commitment & staying the course will have to become a part of anyone looking to complete ATP's flight training in the prescribed time frame that is advertised.As far as what I can do with that extra money, well I'm very fortunate and grateful to be in the financial position I'm in. Also, having a wife that has two master's degrees and capable of working at the Administrative level of any school district in this country.....PRICELESS!!!!!
Remember...steady Eddie wins the race!!!!
atp
10-15-2007 | 09:26 AM
#88
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 478
Likes: 0
10-15-2007 | 10:04 AM
#89
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 406
Likes: 0
From: Left and Right of Whatever
I used ATP for my MEI. I liked how they taught that particular course and I still train most multi-pilots using their way. It works. However, it simply isn't for everyone. I say train at your local FBO and ENJOY IT.
10-15-2007 | 11:46 AM
#90
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,652
Likes: 0
From: Spartan
I totally disagree with you about the time frame. It is almost impossible to get all those ratings at an FBO in even remotely close to 90 days. (private not included) I have tried it. In order to save all that money, you need safety pilots, and safety pilots are a pain in the you know what to find on a regular basis, unless you get totally lucky and find others in the same boat that have the same time frames as you. Otherwise, you need to pay an instructor to ride with you to get the hood time. Plus if you look at the cost and effort it takes to build ME time, ATP's prices aren't really all that bad. I'm not trying to advertise for them, and I know it really is alot of money to pay, but for the structure and ME time, it's really not THAT bad. flight training is expensive no matter where you go.
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