rickdb

I have a couple questions that I am looking for some opinions on. I am new to the forum, and considering becoming a professional pilot.

How long do you think the regional airlines will continue this hiring frenzy (i.e. through 2008, 2009, etc)?

What are the top 3 regional airlines out there, and which would you stay away from?

In your opinion, what does the future of the airline industry look like and why (i.e. positive, negative......)?

Im just looking for any feedback that can be provided.

Thank you for your input.

rickair7777

Regional hiring is driven by various factors:

Overall airline business growth: This is forcast to continue at a moderate pace for the forseeable future. Growth in the US will be slower than overseas.

Transfer of major airline flying to the regional level: This has been occuring at a rapid pace since 2002, but should start to slow in the next 2-3 years. Also this may be good in the short term for a wannabe pilot, but it it is bad in the longer term for all pilots...regional pilots get paid only 20-50% what major pilots get paid.

Retirements: Not a large factor at most regionals...there are not many people who are that old at the regionals. However many major airline pilots will retire in the next 5-10 years, which will cause hiring at both majors and regionals (most major pilots are hired from regionals). The retirement age will change from 60-65 in a year or two, which will slow hiring for a few years (2-3 years is my guess).

Major Economic or Terrorism Problems: Either of these could put 20,000 airline pilots in the unemployment line.

You have to pay attention to all of these things to determine hiring. Baring major catastrophe, I would assume that regional hiring due to growth will slow, but major airline hiring will increase due to retirements, keeping regional hiring at a modest, if not high level. At some point the age 65 thing will slow all hiring for 2-3 years (my guess in around 2009-2011).

The answer depends on what you want:

-Rapid upgrade to Captain (more money and usually necessary to move on to a major airline).

OR

-Good Pay and quality of life.

These regionals have relatively quick upgrade, decent quality of life and pay:
SkyWest
Republic (includes Chattaqua and Shuttle America)
Expressjet

These regionals have good QOL and pay, but longer upgrades:
Horizon
American Eagle
Air Wisconsin

Avoid these companies at all costs:
GoJet
Mesa (includes freedom and air midwest)

Personally I would avoid Trans States and Pinnacle also, but that's a judgement call.

Note: Commuting to work is hard...you might prefer working for a marginal company that has a large base in or near your home town as opposed to a great company that requires a commute for you.


I wish I knew th answer to that...it would make my own planning much easier. The industry (in the US) should continue to grow moderately for the next 20-30 years. However, it is very fragile and any of these things could cause either short term or long-term problems:

Recession/Depression
War
Terrorism
Oil Shortage (this WILL happen eventually...it may have already started.
Environmentalism

rickdb

RickAir,

Thank you for your feedback. I really appreciate it. When you say regional airline hiring will slow down, what specifically do you mean (i.e. if 30/month are getting hired it will gradually decrease to about 10/month. You are right about Skywest and Republic. My friend is a pilot for Skywest and he likes it. I definitely want to upgrade to captain in two years or less, and potentially move on to a major airline. In a nut shell, I want to go to with a regional that has a good reputation, multiple bases (anything moderately close to ORD in Chicago. I dont mind commuting, unless it would be past the great plains region). I definitely would like to fly for one of the major carriers, but my first goal would be getting on a regional and upgrading to Captain in the shortest amount of time.

Thanks for you feedback. Any further thoughts you have I am "all ears".

Rick

ERJ Driver

Mesa for different reasons than GoJet- GoJet is staffed by scabs and it's an alter-ego whipsaw company. Mesa has good crews, but the company is a union buster. Plus, it won't take long to find info about all the lawsuits against us... Of course, Freedom used to be a scab company, but that has been solved since 2003.

Good luck!

rickair7777

Hard to guess on the exact amount of slowing, there are so many factors....but I would imagine that any regional who is hiring 60/month now will not be doing so in 2 years.

A 2 year (or less) upgrade really depends on BOTH growth (new airplanes) and pilot attrition (at the regionals this means captains getting hired by majors, not retirement). I don't see that lasting for long, except maybe at a few regionals which happen to have a lot of growth at that moment.

It is possible that as the mainline-to-regional flying transfer winds up in the next couple of years, that the age 65 change could significantly slow upgrades and hiring for a couple years.

You are in luck, though...several regionals operate out of ORD and MKE. Try to get hired by one.

Flyboy8784

Air Wisconsins Upgrade time is running about 2.5 years and decreasing. With talks of new bases opening up in Jan (LGA and RDU) QOL isnt terrible. And next to Horizon, we have the highest starting pay for any regional. Not to mention our contract is one of the best in the industry

atpcliff

Hi!

Boeing forecasts the need for 17,000 new airline pilots PER YEAR for the NEXT 20 years!.

India and China, as well as the rest of Asia, is a MASSIVE growth market, and is a major factor in the pilot shortage here in the US.

pprune.org is a great message board site to see what is going on worlwide.

Lots of US pilots are going to Asia, which is creating more demand here. One of my buddies is at AWAC, and as soon as he gets his CRJ type rating he's going to Asia as a DEC (Direct Entry Captain-called street captains here).

Good luck!

cliff
ABQ

Flying Ninja

The guy's considering to be a professional airline pilot...I hope he's calculating flight training into his timeline of 2 years to Captain. On that note (flight training that is), avoid the CAPT program down in Flagler, FL at all cost! They're so desperate they're trying to rip off the Indians and the Chinese these days with their smoke and mirrors road shows.

rickdb

That is a good forecast from Boeing for pilots. I am planning on training at ATP. Does anyone have any feedback regarding that school. In regards to the question about upgrading to CA, my timeline doesnt include flight training. I was assuming anywhere from 2-4 yrs from the time I become an FO.

Slice

Oh boy, here we go. Are you rich? I suggest you find the loan repayment calculator on this site to see what those ratings are really going to cost you.