I just read a post here in the forums about the regionals lowering mins and what was next on the horizon. Does anyone have any inputs on what this will mean in let's say, about 10 years from now (economy, the price of oil, age 65 rule, etc notwithstanding)? It seems right now as far as hiring is concerned that the "block iz hot" but how long will this last?

I'm on active duty for 5 more years, would love to be in a position to work the whole aviation career issue but the military has a brutha unavoidably detained at the moment, and time in additon to luck never seems to be on my side.

Emirates? 150 brand new airplanes!? I think they're A380s, 777s, and maybe a few 747-8s, I think.

Thanks.

HerkFCC

 

I know a lot of people have asked it before on here and the most honest answer is noone can tell the future.

In my opinion, I fear that this hiring trend will soon taper off. My reasoning is high gas costs, people stop traveling to save money, gas costs go higher so people stop buying things and thus putting our economy into a recession. BUT, the thing is, people may actually travel by air more instead of thier cars, so like I said, who knows.

Heaven forbid another terror attack, or the conflict in Iraq spreads across other borders. The day after 9/11, American Airlines called Nordam (Nordam is a manufacturing company that builds interior paneling for Boeing airliners), they called Nordam the day after 9/11 and said we will not be able to pay for our contracts. Hence, Nordam ceased production on those contracts and laid off 400 employees. Today, Nordam is back up to full production plus expanding huge facilities.

My gut feeling is the economy has rebounded from 9/11 a little high that it can't support itself. The rising oil costs really worry me. In 2005 oil was at $66 a barrell. In 2002 is was down in the 20's-30's. Today it's aover $90. 10 years from now? 5 years from now?

A hiring trend like this hasn't really happened before in a very long time, so what happens next is anyone's guess.

My argument towards economists that base their figures on the "7 year cycle" is that they've only been keeping track of these cycles since the early 1900's. The digital age has brought the economies of the world closer than before so the "7 year cycle" pretty goes out the window. The economy of today is way much more fragile.


My two cents, I know it's probably not the answer you'd liek to see.

 

No harm no foul.

Good, honest feedback. No sugarcoating..just the way most military folks like it. I feel your pain with the whole riding the desk, ordering parts thing byt the way..

Thanks.

HerkFCC

 

Actually, factoring in the cost of inflation oil is really still cheap right now. Industry consolidation is logically the next step in this process. As this happens pilots will again be forced into leaving the profession. However, I think the ones that remain will see some salary increases mainly to keep up with a weaker dollar.

 

I just wanted to add my 2 cents. I believe hiring like this will continue for the next few years. Not just at the regional level, but with the major carriers as well. Five years it is hard to say, but there are alot of positive factors for hiring to continue. First, the aviation industry is over 10% of the USA's GDP (this is a pretty large chunk). Secondly, the necessity of air travel is increasing every year. Thirdly, pilots are getting old and need to retire. Some will argue that the "Age 65" rule is going to slow hiring. I dont buy into that logic because the majority of pilots arent going to stay until 65 yrs old. Why? Well some are going to be medically DQ'd, and others are just going to want to retire. The small percentage that is going to stay are pilots that got "whacked" when some of the major carriers went bankrupt in regards to their retirement. At the regional level (barring any unforseen circumstances-terrrorists, etc), I think hiring will continue for a long time. At the major level, hiring might not be as strong, but it will still be relatively strong with retirements. As far as oil is concerned, if the price continues to rise we are going to be in much deeper trouble that just worrying about hiring trends. Finally, if hiring did come to a halt then you would just have to flight instruct to build your hours up to 1500 TT and 800+ multi. It would only take 2 years or so. If being a pilot is what you want to do as a career, then go for it. Air travel is always going to be a major aspect affecting our economy, which means their is always going to be a need for pilots. Barring any crazy circumstances, I would say the industry has a very positive outlook. The next step to make it even better for pilots is to make those greedy executives to stop giving themselves huge bonuses.

 

"The next step to make it even better for pilots is to make those greedy executives to stop giving themselves huge bonuses."

I believe you folks as airline pilots are "fighting the good fight" against this kind of stuff, plus that money that those fatcats are getting is "blood money"; hence the livelihood of the people who make the airlines work, at their expense. Something's gotta give. In my humble opinion, you can only do more with less for so long before things get drastic all across the board, I've been dealing with this flawed mentality of sustained ops with doing more with less for most of my career in the military.

I'll keep my eye towards the sky with my eys on the prize. It's out there somewhere.

Thanks for the honest feedback.

HerkFCC