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PoBugSmasher 12-11-2007 08:47 PM


Originally Posted by wrf2e (Post 277618)
Here is the scenario that everyoine here at the Eagle BNA station likes the best (whether it has any chance of coming to reality I do not know).

Virgin America is having trouble expanding its routes because they can't get landing slots or gates at many of the eastern and southern airports. If they were to buy Eagle they would have an instant growth that would also include the caribean. They could then turn around and compete with American in most of their cities. There are not many cities at all that American flies into that eagle doesn't also serve. And at a few of the cities Eagle employees actually do the ground handling and gate work for the American Flights.

We also see this as a plus for eagle because we can now buy larger regional jets without worrying about the scope clause in the American pilot contract.

This is just my 2 cents.

Who owns/leases the gates and slots, though, AMR or American Eagle? I am not being fesicious....I really don't know. I think the chances that American would let go of their real estate/landing rights in profitable markets, as a part of the Eagle sale are slim to none.

They might sell you the aircraft, but unless your flying feed for American, you're gonna be on your own as to where to fly 'em and park 'em.

nicholasblonde 12-11-2007 10:13 PM


Originally Posted by wrf2e (Post 277618)
Here is the scenario that everyoine here at the Eagle BNA station likes the best (whether it has any chance of coming to reality I do not know).

Virgin America is having trouble expanding its routes because they can't get landing slots or gates at many of the eastern and southern airports. If they were to buy Eagle they would have an instant growth that would also include the caribean. They could then turn around and compete with American in most of their cities. There are not many cities at all that American flies into that eagle doesn't also serve. And at a few of the cities Eagle employees actually do the ground handling and gate work for the American Flights.

We also see this as a plus for eagle because we can now buy larger regional jets without worrying about the scope clause in the American pilot contract.

This is just my 2 cents.

AND AE already has a highly experienced (albeit high cost) group of pilots and FOs at the company who don't want to leave (otherwise they would have easily already went to a major/UPS/FedEx)...if Virgin did that, they could put those high-dollar AE senior guys on bigger, newer airframes, thus reducing the per pax per mile cost relative to flying ERJs. Then the guys on the ERJs would be more junior...so overall, Virgin America + AE could actually outcompete AA...newer more fuel efficient large aircraft flown by VA mainline (instead of AAs MD-80s) creating a place for the senior AE pilots to go, lower costs on the ERJ routes due to more junior pilots, and dominance in the caribbean, which could also cross-feed both Virgin domestic and Virgin Atlantic's tourist travelers. Not to mention Virgin has plenty of cash to make it happen, even if it's a long-term play...just look at Virgin Nigeria...that's definitely a long-term play with plenty of risk involved...Virgin's business strategy has always been founded on taking opportunities that more conservative companies are too risk-averse to take. I could see Branson pushing for something like this through back channels, even if VA has been forced to distance itself from the Brits.

nicholasblonde 12-11-2007 10:33 PM


Originally Posted by PoBugSmasher (Post 277631)
Who owns/leases the gates and slots, though, AMR or American Eagle? I am not being fesicious....I really don't know. I think the chances that American would let go of their real estate/landing rights in profitable markets, as a part of the Eagle sale are slim to none.

They might sell you the aircraft, but unless your flying feed for American, you're gonna be on your own as to where to fly 'em and park 'em.

I was wondering the same thing...but even if AMR has all the gates, it would make it even more difficult to sell AE at a decent price if all you're getting is a bunch of older planes, an expensive pilot group, some guaranteed flying, and the executive certificate.

I'm not sure what the economics are, but has anyone considered whether AE could take some of the way-senior captains and convert some of the ERJs into the bizjet version kind of like XJet does? They could create a sizeable charter fleet overnight (certification?), and maybe even venture into all biz-class flights on major routes since they already have the gates. Just throwing that out there.

ExperimentalAB 12-11-2007 10:52 PM

they cannot compete a/established American routes however...

ChinsFive 12-11-2007 11:25 PM

The thing is, none of what we are speculating would happen for a while. For AMR to make any money off Eagle they need to be worth something (it doesn't matter if they IPO it, sell it to a private equity investor, hedge fund, ect.) it has to be worth something for it to become sold for the "right price."

Because of this AMR will load Ealge up with debt and then inflate Eagle's CPA and provide some short term stability (2-3 years is my guess) by locking AMR into that flying. When the newly generated CPA allows them, AMR will pull flying from Eagle and put it out to bid or lower Eagle's rates. Now that they got the high price per share they needed from the Eagle sale (assuming an IPO) the will no longer need Eagle. They will make it difficut for Eagle to retain flying for current rates, and/or keep leased aircraft.

The result will be AMR getting cash value for the sale of Eagle, and cheaper flying be either lowering the value of Eagle's CPA, canceling parts of the CPA and trying to give their airplanes to a less expensive carrier, or binding Eagle to cheaper rates via other methods (MFN clauses come to mind.)

For all this too hapen however AMR will need to create value in Eagle by giving their CPA some stability (that can be washed away) and an impressive fees for depature or cost plus percentage contract. Due to these things Eagle won't change for a few years. It'll be kinda like what happened at ExpressJet.

JMHO

wrf2e 12-12-2007 10:22 AM


Originally Posted by PoBugSmasher (Post 277631)
Who owns/leases the gates and slots, though, AMR or American Eagle? I am not being fesicious....I really don't know. I think the chances that American would let go of their real estate/landing rights in profitable markets, as a part of the Eagle sale are slim to none.

They might sell you the aircraft, but unless your flying feed for American, you're gonna be on your own as to where to fly 'em and park 'em.

That is a question we have been asking ourselves. I do know that here at BNA the jetbridges are owned by American (that is why they are so crappy). I think the gates are as well. AMR still owns the B, C, and D concourses as well as the International gate that is in the A concourse from when BNA was a hub. They lease the D concourse (eagle's old spots) to the Transportation Safety Administration for office space, and about half of the C concourse is leased to Southwest. Concourse B is leased by NW, DL, US JetBlue and Continental. Out of all the gates that AMR owns here, less than 10 are used by AMR and 4 of those we use here at eagle.

sigep_nm 12-12-2007 11:40 AM


Originally Posted by nicholasblonde (Post 277670)
AND AE already has a highly experienced (albeit high cost) group of pilots and FOs at the company who don't want to leave (otherwise they would have easily already went to a major/UPS/FedEx)...if Virgin did that, they could put those high-dollar AE senior guys on bigger, newer airframes, thus reducing the per pax per mile cost relative to flying ERJs. Then the guys on the ERJs would be more junior...so overall, Virgin America + AE could actually outcompete AA...newer more fuel efficient large aircraft flown by VA mainline (instead of AAs MD-80s) creating a place for the senior AE pilots to go, lower costs on the ERJ routes due to more junior pilots, and dominance in the caribbean, which could also cross-feed both Virgin domestic and Virgin Atlantic's tourist travelers. Not to mention Virgin has plenty of cash to make it happen, even if it's a long-term play...just look at Virgin Nigeria...that's definitely a long-term play with plenty of risk involved...Virgin's business strategy has always been founded on taking opportunities that more conservative companies are too risk-averse to take. I could see Branson pushing for something like this through back channels, even if VA has been forced to distance itself from the Brits.

As much as you would like to believe it, pilot wages are a very small amount of the equation in terms of cost. Here is an example for: An airliner pulls up to gate, engines running and burning a significant amount of fuel. If you are at a good airline you as a pilot are still getting paid. You are waiting there because there arent enough $7 an hour rampies to marshall you in. You finally get parked and wait another ten minutes for a jet bridge jockey (probably making 10 an hour) to pull the bridge up. In this twenty minute period the company has paid for twenty extra minutes of flight crew wages, and probably ten minutes of $100 dollar a barrel of oil/gas. This happens an average of three to four flights a day per aircraft, multiplied to by 365 days per year. Lets just say the average flight crew combined is making $110 an hour, and this delay results in an extra hour of block time per day. 110 x 365 = 41000 ish. Now lets say that it is a fleet of 50 aircraft, which results in a yearly cost of 2.1 Million. Now if we were to take the same scenario and add fuel into the equation. Lets say the burn on the ground is 1200lbs per hour, which is about 171 gallons of fuel. Now lets take jet A at $4.00 a gallon. So approximately $680 per hour of fuel burn at a gate. 680 x 365 = $249,660 for one aircraft per year to wait for rampies (remember these are $7 an hour rampies) 249, 660 per aircraft for a 50 aircraft fleet results in 12,483,000 in cost. 2.1 million in pilot wages vs. 12.4 million for fuel cost, all because most companies wont staff there ramps properly. Do you still believe that a senior pilot group is hurting a company? These numbers arent 100% accurate but they are pretty damn close. If you put the kool aid down for a few days its amazing how clear some things become.

FlywithStyle 12-13-2007 02:41 PM

Ok So how about this situation. I live in LA have about 400/100. My life is in LA and cannot be changed for the time being. So I have been thinking about picking AE because of the domicile preferential choice. I am looking to just build my hours until I am ATP qualified and then a few more maybe 2000 and then move to more of a corporate job that awaits me. So with all this talk if my plans find an airline just to build some time and 121 experiance would AE be fine for a couple of years?

nicholasblonde 12-13-2007 04:48 PM

If you gotta be in LA and you have 400/100 and you just need some 121 time up to 2000 hours then heck yeah, AE is perfect for you!

naley70b 12-13-2007 08:31 PM


Originally Posted by TXTECHKA (Post 277183)
Its pitiful when 800 hours is competitive to get a job in a jet carrying people aroun. in my opinion. But on that same deal, I wouldn't go to eagle. At least express flys for someone other than continental so they have more business to fall back on if/when continental takes more flying away. who knows whats gonna happen with these companies but why would you go somewhere that most likely has trouble in the future.


Thats all well and true, maybe ya'll should spend your breath dissuading people from going to Mesa, GoJets and the likes, so that we can actually make progress in our industry instead of regressing....just a thought from a simple turboprop FO.


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