don't get over anxious until you're calling gear up in it...orders can be axed quickly....Sux for everyone right now, but as stated, should be better in the long term.

 

Delta has no MD-80's. Delta has MD-88's. The 88 blocks at around 6,000 pounds per hour and costs less than half, maybe as little as a third, of an RJ's lease costs and is built like a tank. The thing hardly ever breaks. I've had the 88 below 5,000 pounds an hour on longer trips. The RJ was 3,200 to 3,600 pounds per hour to carry 1/3rd the load (although I'm sure the 700's and 900's are more efficient per seat mile).

Efficiency does play a role, but there is a place for each aircraft in the system. A MD88 with 45 people on it is a whole lot less efficient than a 50 seater with 45 people on it. It is harder to fill a MD88.

At the same time, the four or five business people who fly the RJ to connect with oceanic service have a big role in making the 767 profitable at the margin. Network economics are an art.

 

If we can get some more MD-90's, expect to see more RJ's parked. The MD-90's are dirt cheap and they actually aren't fuel hogs like most people think. They have the same engines on them that JetBlue is running on their A-320's. The wing isn't quite as efficient, but they are not fuel hogs like everyone automatically assumes.

 

So what's going to happen with the DAL/PNCL situation? I know we are getting 16 900s for sure for the ATL base, but PNCL has made it clear that only 16 won't do it. They need at least double that number to make it worth it. PNCL was "calculating" or "gambling" if you may, that DAL would ask for more planes by the end of '08. With the RJs lines being cut, where is PNCL going to land? If PNCL gets stuck with a contract for only 16 airplanes the whole Delta operating could take a big toll on the company's margins, specially now that NW is leaning towards Mesaba and Compass for their RJ routes. Any thoughts?