Try to not give mindless answers such as : "mesa sucks, I agree, screw JO," etc.

For those of you capable of producing a lucid and meaningful answer please chime in. Note: I think most everyone on here is capable of this but my goal in starting this thread was not to make yet another place to flame and bash JO and Mesa.

What do you see in the future for Mesa? Will they be bought? Go bankrupt? I want to hear some honest guesses as to what is going to happen.

Don't worry, I'm not trying to go there, I have a nice part 91 Citation gig for now.

Loss of contracts due to poor performance or customer's concern that Mesa will be unable to perform. Some of the routes Mesa looses will disappear as mainline cuts back on flying or replaces RJs with mainline aircraft. Other routes will be awarded to carriers with the proven ability to perform.

The aircraft that Mesa will inevitably park will be distributed to other airlines. This will trigger further consolidation at the regional level, as the larger regionals improve their economies of scale and are able to offer better service at lower cost. Smaller regionals, unable to compete, will be subject to M&A activity or liquidation.

2008 will be a bloodbath.

Easy there!

The future of Mesa is extremely uncertain. I wondered why they gave JO a 3 year extension but then I remembered, JO's no the only idiot in the house. In my mind the only hope for MAG's employees is in being sold. I feel that someone will take them over but not until MAG's lawsuits are over with. Yes they were ordered to pay $80M plus legal fees to Hawaiian but I think a lawsuit from Aloha is just around the corner.

But I feel that these lawsuits aren't the largest of MAG's problems. In the near future US Airways and UAL will be looking for new carriers to pick up MAG's flying. They've just become too much of a liability with poor performance in MANY categories.

I wish the best for ALL MAG employees!

The previous posters are correct. Let's sum up the issues mesa is facing:

- $80M Judgement to Hawaiian (plus legal fees). They are appealing, but I think they will lose.

- A similar lawsuit from Aloha will be heard this spring. The merits of the case are similar, so I think mesa will lose that one too, with a similar judgement.

- US Airways CEO is rumored to have made public statements to the effect that mesa will not be granted a new contract when their's expires (in 2012 I believe).

- Massive pilot turnover, close to 50% in 2007. This is amplified by poor morale, management mistreatment of employees, and the fact that as more people leave the ones left behind have to work more to pick up the slack...further encouraging those pilots to quit.

- Loss of flying due to lack of flight crews. I don't have the details about DCI and Airways Express, but other regionals had to cover some mesa UAX flying in 2007. I'm not sure if mesa is going to get that flying back.

- Oil is up, stocks and the economy are down.

- Well over half of their jet fleet is 50 seaters.

- Mesa management is not held in the highest regard...the judge in the hawaiian lawsuit has directly indicated that he doesn't believe they are honest.

- Mesa is emphasizing branded-flying (Go!) and a startup regional in the People's Republic of China. Both are VERY problematic, high-risk ventures. I suspect they would be better served by focusing on their codeshare flying (which is how regionals make money).


It looks to me like a major confluence of circumstances is catching up with them all at once.

Is there anything good to say?

- They are ordering or contracting for more 700/900 aircraft, so they are not totally stagnating with the 50 seaters.

- There must be something else, but I can't think of it right now.

You forgot to say Mesa Sucks.

There is one good thing. They have been very accomadating and professional when I needed a jumpseat on them, which is not infrequent. The pilots I have met have been knowledgeable and professional pilots. I don't know why they go there, honestly, but I have been impressed with them, which is more than I can say for some at other companies I have run across.

But seriously, why do these intellegent folks end up at a company like that? Do they not know how it is? Is it because they can live at home? That IMHO would be the ONLY justification for working there.

Have they gotten any of those Delta -900's? I heard someone say they saw a couple sitting over on the line in CLT. They were supposed to start flying them back in August.

When Eagle becomes a bird out of nest, their reputation as a quality service may just get more work of which may require more pilots and equipment at a lower cost structure (two tickets). I'm guessing MESA would be a great choice (September 2008).

It didn't used to be as bad as it is now.

Even five years ago, you couldn't get all this info on the internet...many CFI's went there ignorant due to lack of info. Once you get settled in it's hard to leave (especially for lifer CA's)

Regional Question:

When mainline carriers contract with a regional to provide feed, are there specific reasons that the mainline carrier can void the contract? My thinking is that like certain financial instruments, if xyz goes below abc then you cash us out. Do the mainline carriers state "if your balance sheet looks a certain way, and your potential liabilities exceed your net worth, we can void the contract and go with another regiona in better financial shape"? Similiar to a loan convenant with a bank - does this exist in the regional world, and if so, I wonder if Mesa's balance sheet is getting close to triggers?