paxhauler85

Anyone else think there is any truth to to rumor that RAH is interested in Mesa?

I'm doubtful, but curious what others think.

Sniper

RAH has a hard-on for 170's. Mesa has gone all-in on the stretch CRJ concept. Seems like an odd pairing.

I like Mesa to contract some to a more manageable size, but don't see a buy-out or liquidation in the next couple years. Long term prospects are cloudy, but that's the case for most regionals - the massive growth is over. There's just not much of a demand for 50 seat jets and smaller turbo-props in the US market, and mainline carrier's pilot groups have figured out that capturing the smaller gauge flying through scope is a required item in negotiations, so the instance of contract flying of smaller gauge 'replacing' mainline's larger gauge are dwindling.

My crystal ball is on the fritz today though, so I'm just speculating as much as the next guy.

N2rotation

I can only hope the worst for bottom feeders. This includes Mesa and JO's exploited labor.

CFIse

If you take a look at Mesa's annual report it provides some detail on how the contracts can be canceled. Balance sheet and net worth ain't one of them. Performance however is - but believe me, regardless of how you feel about Mesa's performance it hasn't fallen to the level where contract cancellation is an option.

CFIse

It's not "elimination of flying" that's getting CAL to pull the planes. They want the ability to bid regional providers off against each other like the other legacies. They want out of the sweetheart contract signed with XJT when XJT was spun out.

Expressjet will lower it's costs (see pilot compensation and contract) or it will no longer exist UNLESS cost becomes only a minor factor in regional contracts with the mainlines, and hands up anybody who thinks that's likely!

CFIse

That's hilarious. Last January Mesa wrote-off $30M it had ALREADY PAID TO UNITED as "pay to play" money when the contract was initiated. It wasn't a fine or a payment for non-performance (no matter how inadequate the performance might have been). The write-off was because Mesa decided (rightly or wrongly) that the contract was no longer profitable and that the $30M couldn't be taken against future profits.

Really - if you're going to post at least make some attempt to be close to in the same city, let alone ballpark, as the facts.

Joeshmoe

You MAG management or something? Another crystal palace wonder?

rickair7777

I don't think they want 50 seaters either...I have flown in all three systems and they are swapping 50's for larger RJ's where they can.

CFIse

Now there's some common sense. I agree, Mesa isn't going away, no matter how much people may wish it would.

Cash. Mesa doesn't have a cash problem, they managed to raise the $80M+ bond pretty quickly and, even if the get a cash problem they OWN 58 of the aircraft of which at least there is some equity. They can convert those aircraft to lease agreements and release that equity as cash pretty much anytime they want. Mesa does not have a long term cash problem and it doesn't have a short term cash problem.

Delta - by all accounts doesn't havea problem with Mesa. They gave them new aircraft, and Mesa keeps hiring Delta insiders to run the Freedom operation and people do business with people they know. I'm sure Mesa expects to do a lot more business with Delta, we'll see if they do, but they are unlikely to do much less.

US Air - the end of the contract has been written on the wall since AWAC bought the business. As others pointed out, it's got a number of years to run yet, and while it runs out the planes come out of the contract on a staggered schedule, which presumably allows Mesa to send most of them to China.

UAL - have you ever been a passenger with United? They could give a damn about passenger comfort or service - two things which Mesa has no concept of. United does however care about cost, one thing that Mesa doesn't have much of. UAL is taking 70 seaters from Mesa on 10 year deals, they're not about to shut the operation down.

Like it or not Mesa will be around for a while, possibly a little smaller, in fact likely a little smaller, but they'll be there.

You heard this prediction here first - go! aircraft flying the West Coast inside of 5 years.

CFIse

Nope - I just read their financial reports and understand them - something that people who were actually interested in MAGs demise would be wise to do.